Gold remained near unchanged in a range of about $569-$573 in Asia and London before it fell in early New York trade to as low as $559.80 at one point, but it then rallied into the close and ended slightly higher on the day. Silver traded mostly slightly higher in Asia and London before it fell in morning New York trade to as low as $10.75 at one point, but it also rallied into the close and ended with a gain of 1%. Full Story
Even a casual observer can see that the Fed is now caught between a rock and a hard place. If it lowers interest rates to head off the economic devastation that would come with a collapsed housing bubble—housing is estimated to have, directly and indirectly, contributed 57% of U.S. economic activity over the past 5 years—the Fed risks triggering a wholesale rush by foreigners to dump their trillions of U.S. dollars. But if it raises interest rates to protect the dollar, the Fed risks turning an economic downturn into the most serious recession since the 1930’s. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 6 October, 2006
Over the past couple of weeks a curious sort of frenzy has erupted around the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average first challenging and then surpassing its all-time record highs. Judging by the overwhelming financial-media coverage, there was no more important event on the planet to discuss in recent days. Full Story
Some steadfast bears are reiterating that the U.S. stock markets are rigged, that the Dow is only making new highs because of timely component changes, and that any new highs in stocks are insignificant when adjusted for inflation. Before joining in the fun, it should, at minimum, be conceded that bearish forecasts have not gone according to plan. Rather, nearly 7-years after the market bust began the combined value of all U.S. stocks hit an new all-time high last week and the Dow is closing at record highs this week. Those that have cried wolf since 2000 claiming a repeat of 1990s Japan could be in the offing, myself included, were mistaken. Full Story
In The Dow's Phony New High, I pointed out that there is ample reason to be skeptical of the Dow's recent advance. However, one cannot argue with new highs, and that is exactly what we have. If you recall, there were just as many, if not more reasons to be skeptical of the Nasdaq advance in 1999, but that did nothing to stop it from more than doubling in its final ejaculation into the year 2000. Full Story
We have systemic breakdown under our noses, but the arrogant proboscis tilt renders recognition impossible. Housing is the lynchpin to the USEconomic risk of breakdown, and in my viewpoint, a bear market of historic proportions has begun in housing, noted by staggering momentum from numerous factors. Even USFed Chairman Bernanke admits a 1% drag on US GDP from a housing slowdown. Try triple that, at least! Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next downside target is 568.2. The next area of resistance is around 579.1 and 582.5, while 1st support hits today at 571.9 and below there at 568.2. Full Story
Traders and investors are booking profits quickly. They are buying on dips as well as selling on rise after looking at the movement in crude oil prices. Full Story
Gold rose to over $570 in Asia before it fell back off a bit, but it then rose again in London, furthered it gains above $570 in early New York trade, and ended with a gain of 1.73%. Silver outpaced gold’s gains and rose near $11.10 in New York trade before it fell slightly, but it still ended with a gain of 2.91%. Full Story
It’s time once again to watch the anti-Bernanke music video produced by the kids at the Columbia Business School. Its prediction has come true. "When the yield curve flips, I’ll be watching you." The FedFunds rate has not gone down recently, but other rates have. Long-term rates have declined, indicating that lenders are losing their fear of price inflation. They have demanded an ever-lower inflation premium for their money. Full Story
For months on end Gold Stocks acted as high beta plays on the Market. Wherever the Dow went Gold Stocks followed. Suddenly that correlation evaporated. Unfortunately for us Gold Bugs the trend became a Higher Stock Market and lower Gold Stocks. Whilst there is no denying the short-term pain, long-term, I take this action as exceedingly positive. Full Story
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are taken out. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness. The next downside target is 548.5. The market is approaching oversold levels on an RSI reading under 30. The next area of resistance is around 577.8 and 592.8, while 1st support hits today at 555.6 and below there at 548.5. Full Story
Gold and silver are tracking crude oil prices and nothing else. Crude oil prices have rebounded from the low of $57.33 to $60.20 while gold December future has rebounded from the low of $563.50 to $574.10. Full Story
Gold remained near unchanged in Asia and rose a bit in London to come into New York a few dollars higher, but it then fell off throughout morning New York trade and remained near its lows in afternoon trade to close with a loss of 2.59%. Silver also found slight gains in early New York trade before it fell to as low as $10.53 and then rebounded slightly into the close, but it sill ended with a loss of 2.20%. Full Story
The good news is all systems remain go for new, all-time highs in 2007. The bad news is, there’s not only been significant technical damage done short term, but the next few trading sessions are likely going to impact where we head for much of the balance of 2006. It will be unlikely for gold to break much below $570 on a closing basis without further declining to at least $540 (May lows). As hard as that will be to endure, it may be best so that a complete washout can occur. If the thought of $540 sickens you, then me stating gold could fall all the way to $500 but still be in a long-term bull market can only upset you even more. Full Story
The current market structure in both gold and silver, according to the Commitment of Traders Report (COT), is excellent. That’s one of the benefits of sharp sell-offs. I am not denying that these sell-offs cause extreme pain and damage to leveraged holders, as that would be to deny reality. Because there has already been a significant liquidation of speculative long positions and corresponding dealer buying to cover shorts, there appears to be little risk of a meaningful sell-off from current levels (just under $11 on silver). Instead, the path of least resistance from here should be to the upside. I know it doesn’t feel like that, but that’s the way markets, even manipulated markets, work. Full Story
Skepticism continues to be our most potent defense these days against losing our shirts in the precious metals sector. That, and more than the usual amount of caution, since Gold’s worst correction in many a year shows no sign of ending. How else to trade an asset class that in mere weeks could be down a further 15 percent -- or up 25 percent, for that matter? Full Story
Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend could be turning down. The gap lower price action on the day session chart is a bearish indicator for trend. There could be some early pressure today given the market's negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The next upside objective is 598.7. The next area of resistance is around 588.5 and 598.7, while 1st support hits today at 574.5 and below there at 570.8. Full Story
Gold dropped a couple of dollars in Asia, traded over $5 lower in London, fell another $10 in early New York trade, and then went down about $5 further in the last half-hour of trade to result in a loss of 3.55% on the day. Silver also experienced significant drops throughout world trade and ended at its low of the day with a loss of 5.22%. Full Story
The moving average crossover up (9 above 18) indicates a possible developing short-term uptrend. Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next upside target is 611.6. The next area of resistance is around 606.9 and 611.6, while 1st support hits today at 599.7 and below there at 597.3. Full Story
It’s a new quarter and over the next three months we expect volatility in currency markets to rise and an increase in US dollar short positions. A weaker US dollar should benefit gold and silver. Full Story
Gold quickly rose over $600 in Asia and remained a few dollars higher in London before it extended its gains in early New York to trade about $5 higher on the day, but it then fell throughout most of the rest of trade and ended near its lows with a small loss. Silver traded over 30 cents higher in early New York trade before it also fell off into the close, but it still ended with a decent gain of 0.79%. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster – Global Watch - 2 October, 2006
We published last week’s figures in the last issue and must simply wait for the figures for Monday and Tuesday the 26th & 27th of September the last two days of the second year of the Central Bank Gold Agreement. However, there was no sudden drop in the gold price so we can be fairly sure that 100 tonne + was not sold in those two days. We have put our final figures at around the 355 tonnes. We expect the total for the year to end up at about 380 tonnes in all [this includes the transfer of 17 tonnes by France to the B.I.S. and allows the final two days gold sale of 7.3 tonnes]. Full Story
In my pieces ‘Gold – It’s a Bull Market Stupid’ and ‘Selling Juniors? - You Must Be Kidding!’ I made a strong case for an upcoming major ‘BUY’ opportunity anytime soon based on the extreme low relative values for both gold and the HUI.. So where are we now? Did things improve since last week? And if so should we buy now? Full Story
Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The near-term upside objective is at 611.8. The next area of resistance is around 608.2 and 611.8, while 1st support hits today at 600.2 and below there at 595.9. Full Story
Gold and silver continued to be dictated by crude oil prices as well as the US dollar. Nonetheless gold and silver are floating over their key long term support levels. Full Story
The markets have been interesting over the past two weeks. I have continuously maintained that the sell off in gold shares of the past month was the end of an old correction and not the start of a new bear market. Sell offs in old corrections have exactly the opposite connotations as they indicate the onset of a new BULL market phase not a new bear market. Full Story
Barclay’s iShares told the Thought Police, in the form of a Securities and Exchange Commission S-1 filing, that it’s going to “Texas hedge” the silver ETF with the issuance of another 16,822,727 shares in its silver trust, representing, at 10 ounces per, another 168 million ounces of silver. Full Story
Inter-market relationship is very complex , and like price itself, is dynamic and subject to constant change. One of the most influential factors in the financial markets is interest rates. And the market which is more affected by interest rates is the precious metals market. In recent years, the PM market tends to rise and fall opposite to bond prices, not to the exact day, but generally speaking. I am not smart enough to tell you why that is, but until this inversed relationship ends, it provides clues as to how far we are from a major turning point in the PM market. Full Story
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