By: Adam Hamilton, CPA, Zeal Research - 6 December, 2019
The bottom line is gold’s correction isn’t over yet. The only reason its downtrend has proven modest so far is gold-futures speculators have yet to do any major selling. Their longs have lingered at very-high levels since gold’s latest interim high, while their shorts ground along near bull-market lows. That means the lion’s share of the necessary gold-futures selling to drive this correction is still yet to come. Beware!
Gold-futures selling typically starts gradually after major gold uplegs peak, then later eventually cascades into a steeper climax. Residual greed persists for some time after toppings, and gold-futures stop losses usually don’t start tripping en masse until a few months later. Today the specs still have massive room to sell but little room to buy more. This imbalance has to be rectified before gold’s next major upleg starts marching. Full Story
Gold market update: Signs of a similar H1-2019 pattern?
Similar pattern emerging to earlier this year with gold now reversing higher with higher lows and higher highs -- we are starting to stair-step up. Banks going to get stuck in another short squeeze? All the poor saps who sold out at the intermediate bottom..
So there you have it, four producers and one royalty all trending up and saying the same thing; quality is getting a head start and leading the whole raft of items higher in 2020 as the metals work through much needed corrections.
For those of you that were with us back towards the end of 2015, you may remember that I was being quite vocal of the fact that I was heavily buying mining stocks. In fact, we even rolled out our EWT Mining service in September of 2015 to prepare for the bottoming in the complex we expected. At the time, quite a number of mining stocks were striking their long-term bottoms and beginning a strong rally.
Yet, if you also remember, it was not until the end of December of that year that gold struck its bottom. So, as you can see, we do not always see bottoming in all products and charts within this complex at the same time.
Most specifically, when you review charts like GDX and GDXJ, bottoming can take shape as a very overlapping and unclear structure.. Full Story
After today’s US November nonfarm payrolls, traders will take positions for next week’s FOMC meet. NFP will give hint on next week’s FOMC meet. Look into US economy and global economy in totality and not just from interest rate perspective. UK election and December 15 deadline for US-China trade deal will also be under close scrutiny by traders and investors alike. Full Story
I can remember there were times during the PM complex bull market before 2011 that sometimes the PM metals would rally but the PM stocks were very weak. Then there were times when the PM stock would rise while the PM metals moved very little. At the time of those occurrences it was bewildering as common sense suggested they should all move together and the stronger the metals moved so should the PM stocks. I don’t have a good answer for the bifurcation at times only that it can happen.
This first chart for tonight is the old ratio combo chart which has the Gold:XAU ratio on top with the XAU on the bottom. When the ratio is rising gold is outperforming the XAU. Going all the way back to 1996 you can see that gold outperformed the XAU in parabolic fashion until the top in January of 2016 which lasted about 20 years. When that 20 year parabolic arc gave way in early 2016 that broke the back of gold outperforming the XAU. Full Story
I do not buy anything Trump is saying in front of NATO, for the press, in negotiations in his trade-deals. Next round of sanctions with China is nearing and will know more soon. Gold still not over the key 18-week moving average, negative bias remains.. Full Story
Gold and silver would have skyrocketed yesterday but for news of nearing of a trade deal. US November private ADP numbers stood at 67,000. If nonfarm payrolls on Friday matches ADP, then chances of interest rate cut in next week FOMC could be very high. Gold just corrected on trade deal news while silver fell. Crude oil zoomed. Trump has a history of flip-flop, unless a trade deal is actually signed gold prices will remain firm. Full Story
Relations between USA-China is moving from bad to worse. USA is interfering with Chinese sovereignty be it Hongkong or the South China Sea or Chinese dealing with Muslim minority. Gold and silver will remain firm as a result of this. Correction will be there if various US jobs numbers (release begins from today with November private ADP) beat street expectations. Full Story
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 3 December, 2019
The exact low for gold was November. Seasonality and charts are created by liquidity flows in the physical market and on the COMEX. The bottom line for gold: Good times are here, and great times are near!
By: Dave Kranzler, Mining Stock Journal - 3 December, 2019
Also, the gold price has withstood a 43,000 contract liquidation in Comex open interest, including a 1-day record 127k contract liquidation in the December contract, much of which “rolled” out to February. Historically a draw down in Comex open interest of this magnitude would have removed at least $50 from the gold price.
In the chart above, gold appears to be establishing a strong base in the $1460 area. The MACD shows an extremely oversold technical condition as does the RSI. With the Central Banks, including the Fed, printing money at a furious pace right now, the conditions are in place for potentially a big move in gold. Full Story
Stage is set for big rally in gold and silver unless various US November jobs numbers beat street expectation by a big margin. U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on metal imports from Brazil and Argentina. USA has threatened to impose new tariffs on trade with the European Union after the World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled that the EU had not complied with an order to halt illegal subsidies to airplane manufacturer Airbus. Europe has been a partner in crime of USA. There are voices with Eurozone political leadership to reduce dependency on USA. NATO and United Nations (UN) are on the verge of getting obsolete. Gold prices will zoom to $2250 and more till a new forum to replace UN and NATO are found. Full Story
According to central bank governor Adam Glapinski, Poland repatriated around 100 tons of gold from the Bank of England in a bid to demonstrate the strength of the nation’s $586 billion economy, writes Bloomberg. Poland could generate “multi-billion” profits if it sold its holdings, but has no plans to do so, he said. In Turkey, official gold reserves, including deposits and swaps, increased 2.7 percent to $26.6 billion, compared to September, according to central bank in Ankara. Full Story
After 2013, we started see these huge pre-market dumps in gold. Banks playing the markets with massive contract dumps on the markets, in five minutes or less, usually in the pre-market where that contract volume size will start to..
By: Keith Weiner, Monetary Metals - 2 December, 2019
The basic idea behind the Quantity Theory of Money could be stated as: too much money supply is chasing too little goods supply, so prices rise. We have debunked this from several angles. For example, we can use a technique that every first year student in physics is expected to know. Dimensional analysis looks at the units on both sides of an equation.
Money supply is a quantity, a stocks, i.e. dollars or tons in the gold standard. Goods supply is a quantity per year, a flows, i.e. tons / year. You cannot compare tons to tons / year. The attempt is meaningless. Full Story
The next two weeks are big global economic data days and central banks meetings (including FOMC). Eastern European central banks have started increasing gold reserves. Those central banks whose gold have been stored in vaults in UK have started to repatriate their gold or have given their intention to take back their gold. But bank of England is not giving gold to South American nations. This will be a cause of concern for the long term. Full Story
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