Today’s number is important in that if the government tries to fake a good number the market will probably lose all confidence in government statistics and likely react badly. There is no scenario where the number can be good as we have already been feeling the effects of the virus scare for a couple of months. A good number will be viewed as a blatant attempt to alter the data.
And that is exactly what has happened. The dollar and the stock market selling has intensified as traders now know they can no longer trust government to publish true economic numbers. IMO this was an incredibly stupid move and will likely just make the crash worse. Full Story
US February ADP numbers were good. Corona virus has started inroads in USA in the last week of February. February jobs numbers in USA will not have any corona virus impact. March numbers (which will be released in April) will have an impact.
If the corona virus spreads in a big way in India (which I expect as the government has reacted very late on travel bans and ban of tourist inflows from virus infected nations.) then physical gold demand in India.. Full Story
In the latest update to the Rick’s Picks home page, I’ve revised an interest rate forecast for the 30-year bond to — better sit down for this — 0.73%. This is an implied recession/depression away from the current 1.60%, so you may want to jot the new number down. I got a wake-up call on this from my friend Doug Behnfield, whose name will be familiar to anyone who has followed Rick’s Picks for a while. Doug, a Boulder-based financial advisor at Morgan Stanley, is not only the smartest investor I know, he is one of the smartest guys. He’s been loaded to the gills with muni bonds, among other investables, and is having the kind of year with them that even Soros or Buffett would envy. Full Story
Fed hasn't done anything like this since 2008. The 50 basis point cut was 100% priced in this month by the market. So the Fed used some of its bullets and now..
Last weekend almost all major media websites were saying that there can be a coordinated central bank interest rate cut this week. Federal Reserve cut interest rate yesterday was a part of the same. Unless a vaccine or a standard medication is found to treat the corona virus all central bank measures will be useless. Keep a close watch on potential job losses in India, USA and major nations.
Volatility will be very high in all metals and energies. I am not sure whether US jobs numbers will have a significant impact on gold price. Full Story
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 3 March, 2020
“He will lose the election, that’s for sure…Ford lost to Carter after the 1973 oil shock, Carter lost to Reagan due to the second oil crisis in 1979, and Bush lost to Clinton after the Kuwait invasion. The Democratic field is poor, but Trump is dead.” – Legendary economist Nouriel Roubini, March 2, 2020.
Corona is the kind of crisis that Roubini is referring to, a crisis that destroys a presidency. Please click here now. As America’s debt clock spins out of control, Trump calls for more rate cuts, to enable even more debt.
It’s a vicious cycle; a problem created by debt is “solved” by enabling even more debt. To manage the situation, all investors should own some gold. Full Story
Credit default swaps surged this week as insurance costs jumped by the most on record. Fears about the coronavirus essentially shut out almost all borrowers looking for fresh cash in the U.S. and Europe. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the virus outbreak poses evolving risks for U.S. growth and signaled that the central bank is prepared to cut interest rates to support expansion if necessary, reports Bloomberg. Full Story
If you are going to trade precious metals then you MUST accept that you are fighting a battle with the bullion banks and the rules and the law simply do not apply to them.
First big warning sign, miners were being suppressed. Why? The bullion banks were heavily short gold that they can't keep adding more shorts. The gold cartel therefore began shorting gold stocks and silver..
I would like to put out a quick special report to update you on the big picture in light of all of the market turmoil and provide some of the concepts which may suggest where we are going from here.
First off I you were reading these reports in the late summer of 2018 I put out a 3-part series on the Post Bubble Contraction (PBC). Well the PBC has now arrived. Of course it was virtually impossible to predict when it would finally get triggered since it was the FED fueling the bubble for as long as they could. But it appears the bubble has finally been pricked by a black swan from left field... Full Story
This article was conceived as a “souvenir article” to assist those of you who did the trade - and I know from feedback that a significant number of you did - in gloating at its glorious success – but here’s the thing, working on it turned up some valuable insights that we can turn to our advantage in the immediate future. You will soon see what I mean.
As Friday wore on I became more and more uncomfortable about sticking with the Puts, on account of the by then massively oversold condition of the market after 5 straight days of dropping like a rock, and, aware that after such a week, reversals often happen at or around the weekend, I figured that “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”, and so waited for what I thought was a good point for us to offload our Puts for the best prices possible. Full Story
I used to write a monthly column for a jewelry magazine in India between 2007 and 2012. (Now I do not write articles for any media other than www.goldseek.com). In one of the articles I had written that gold prices will crash when human’s survival is questioned. Friday’s gold price crash reflected somewhat. People were just frantically selling everything (including gold) to get cash and stock up supplies and be able to meet future contingencies. Cash and gold are the kings in such uncertain times. Full Story
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