By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 16 June, 2006
Such corrections are totally necessary within a secular bull from time to time in order to keep sentiment balanced and prevent the bulls from going parabolic too early and ending prematurely. But just as in the previous five major PM corrections in this bull, the underlying PM fundamentals today remain awesome with the best of these bulls yet to come. Full Story
By: Peter Zihlmann, Zihlmann Investment Management AG - 16 June, 2006
The chart above clearly shows one thing: long-term trends often last many years. The bear market that started in 1988 ended in 1993. The up-swing that followed lasted three years from 1993 until 1996 and culminated in what may be called a false break-out. Then another bear-market unfolded taking the gold price down to $ 250 over a period of almost four years. Then came the spike in the gold price (1999) as a consequence of the central banks’ announcement that they would be limiting their gold-sales. The 1999 bottom was tested again at the beginning of 2001. At that time, when few believed that any money should be put into precious metals, the present bull market started; a bull market we deem has still a long way to go. Full Story
I find it most incongruous that global markets are being knocked on fears of US inflation and yet gold is supposed to be the hedge against inflation. We are back into the realms of stupidity once again. Full Story
Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next downside objective is now at 562.4. The market is approaching oversold levels on an RSI reading under 30. The next area of resistance is around 575.3 and 582.4, while 1st support hits today at 565.3 and below there at 562.4. Full Story
Mr.Bernanke does it once again for gold, silver, copper as well as equity markets. Last time he was responsible for the crash. This time he is responsible for the recovery. Full Story
Gold fell to under $560 in after hours trade late yesterday, rallied back near $565 in Asia, and rose near $575 in London before it fell off slightly into the New York close, but it still ended with a 0.82% gain on the day. Silver fell near $9.50 in after hours trade late yesterday, rose near $10 in Asia, and traded above $10 in London before it also fell slightly off of its highs in New York, but it still ended with a gain of 2.89%. Full Story
Daily stochastics are trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside target is 558.4. The 9-day RSI under 20 suggests the market is extremely oversold. The next area of resistance is around 571.5 and 578.5, while 1st support hits today at 561.5 and below there at 558.4. Full Story
Gold fell to under $550 in Asia but then rebounded to near $570 by early trade in London. It then fell near $565 by the open in New York which took it back above $570 before it fell off into the close and ended slightly lower. Silver followed a similar pattern in a range of about $9.50 to $10 and ended with a loss of 1.52%. Full Story
The past few weeks have seen stocks and commodities (notably gold and silver) take a beating. After peaking in May (April in the case of the NASDAQ), several major indices have declined to lower lows and most recently hit lows for the year on Tuesday, June 13. The culprit behind this decline, as we’ll discuss in this commentary, is the 8-year cycle. This important cycle is due to bottom in September. Since we’re less than three months from the next 8-year bottom it will do us well to examine the path that the previous 8-year cycle took back in the spring and summer of 1998 (commensurate with our current position within this cycle). Full Story
Gold plunged today as the steep but orderly decline from a “Matterhorn” top gave way to a stampede for the exits as blind panic set in - normally a symptom of a bottom. The “Matterhorn” top is so called because it involves a market that ascends in a steep uptrend, then without any kind of pause to mark out a normal top distribution area, it goes into a steep decline that more or less mirrors the ascent that preceded it. The Matterhorn top is, of course, most familiar to Swiss investors. Full Story
Silver at least had the decency to give us much more warning than gold that it was going to cave in. It marked out a rather fine Head-and-Shoulders top, although the “Right Shoulder” was deceptive as it was very stunted - we had been been looking for a larger one, but remained aware throughout that a break of the neckline of the formation at $11.50 would lead to a rout. Despite being now at strong support, we could see more downside in silver before the decline is over. Another warning was the number of commentators touting the “wonderful fundamentals” of silver. Full Story
Gold futures crushed an important hidden-pivot support at 599.40 yesterday, on their way to one of the worst single-day losses on record. The breach of the pivot, which I’d advertised here prominently, implies that the correction will continue to at least 549.40, basis August. That is the closest important hidden buttress beneath yesterday’s 566.80 settlement price, and it should be considered a minimum downside objective for the near-term. Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The gap lower price action on the day session chart is a bearish indicator for trend. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. The next downside target is 544.1. More downside action may be limited by the RSI under 20 putting the market in extremely oversold territory. The next area of resistance is around 581.5 and 603.0, while 1st support hits today at 552.1 and below there at 544.1. Full Story
Gold traded near $600 in Asia, dropped to about $590 in London, and then sold off throughout trade in New York and ended near its lows with 7.27% loss. Silver steadily dropped all the way through world trade and ended 10.79% lower. Gold and silver equities fell around 5% in early trade before cutting their losses heading into afternoon trade, but they then fell off into the close and ended near their lows of the session. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch – Editor, Global Money Trends Magazine - 13 June, 2006
For the past four years, the big-3 central banks were the world’s “serial bubble blowers,” flooding the world with cheap money via historically low interest rates, in order to pump up stock markets and real estate values. However, with global economic growth running at 5% in the first half of 2006, the most robust multi-year expansion since the 1970’s, there were serious side effects of surging energy and commodity prices, that are now feeding into consumer inflation. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 13 June, 2006
During the long-term bull market in gold stocks there have, to date, been two intermediate-term corrections (the 2001 and 2002 corrections) and one primary correction (the Dec-2003 to May-2005 correction). However, the following weekly chart of the HUI shows that none of these corrections resulted in a move below the second-to-last intermediate-term high. Assuming, therefore, that the current correction will turn out to be no worse than the previous intermediate-term or major corrections, the Dec-2003 peak of 260 should not be breached. In other words, the HUI's maximum downside potential from Friday's closing price of 299 is probably about 12%. Full Story
From a pure technical stand point, there is nothing bullish about the current price action. Those who suggest the markets can only go higher from here is simply refusing to see what is. Sure, we can debate over China, India, and a whole lot of reasons why metals should go to the moon sooner or later, but the fact is, a lot of hot money was required to propel these markets to the current great heights. Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside target is now at 603.4. Some caution in pressing the downside is warranted with the RSI under 30. The next area of resistance is around 615.5 and 620.1, while 1st support hits today at 607.1 and below there at 603.4. Full Story
Metal markets are extremely quiet with most precious metals and base metals calmly consolidating. The hurricane season begins with warnings that the season’s first Tropical Storm Alberto could be named a hurricane. Full Story
Gold fell near $600 is Asia, rebounded to find slight gains in London, and rose above $610 in midmorning New York trade, but it then fell off into the close and ended slightly lower on the day. Silver followed a similar pattern and lost 1.61%. Full Story
The just released COT, for positions held as of June 6, 2006, shocked and dismayed me. Not only did it confirm my contention that the largest short traders on the COMEX continued (and actually increased) their dominance over long traders by excessive concentration, the new COT contained data that was so disturbing that it raised the possibility of a looming default in COMEX silver. At a minimum, the new data fully explains the recent sharp sell-offs in silver and strengthens my allegations of a downward price manipulation. Full Story
One of the first things traders learn about the financial markets is that history has a way of repeating itself. And from that one piece of information most technical oriented traders focus on price patterns which repeat time and time again. Below are a few charts of gold that show a parabolic spike price pattern which has occurred twice in the last 10 months and could very much happen again soon. Full Story
Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next downside objective is now at 604.9. The 9-day RSI under 30 indicates the market is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance is around 617.8 and 624.9, while 1st support hits today at 607.8 and below there at 604.9. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 11 June, 2006
In an extraordinary set of moves Russia has further confirmed our story of last week concerning the Stabilization fund. Could it be these switches that held the $ week over the last few weeks? Sergei Ignatyev, chairman of the central bank, said 50% of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves are now held in the U.S.$, with 40% in the € and the remainder in the Pound Sterling, a mirror image of the Stabilization Fund. Previously it was believed that just 25-30% of the reserves were in the €, with virtually all the remainder in the U.S. $. The action could well prove to be the pathfinder for other nations intending to diversify from the U.S.$. Full Story
Interest rates around the world have been hiked. This is the being heralded by the bankers as the new panacea to cure all inflation worries. Forget about it. Although the metal prices are having a breather they are still in major long term bull trends and will continue to cause inflationary scenarios. The interest rate hikes have merely put the cap on all the leading global equity markets. Full Story
We have a bid in for August Gold, our first attempt to buy the stuff in nearly a month as we’ve waited for the correction to run its course. The bid is based on my minimum downside target for the Comex contract, 599.40, a hidden pivot first broached here a couple of weeks ago. Full Story
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