By: Adam Hamilton, CPA, Zeal Research - 16 June, 2017
Fed rate hikes hurt stock markets, which boosts gold investment demand for diversifying portfolios. And this week’s FOMC announcement heralding the first-ever quantitative tightening is exceedingly bearish for these Fed-levitated record-high stock markets. As they inevitably roll over, gold investment demand will once again surge and catapult gold much higher. This trend will generate great wealth for prudent contrarians. Full Story
If prices get under 1214.3, the downtrend will be back in place and a move down to the lower Bollinger Band of 1131 is possible.
What’s clear to me is that a move of importance is just around the corner. One this could produce a rather large move in gold prices given how long the current price consolidation has been taking. Full Story
Gold’s ups and downs have grown increasingly tiresome, largely because the rallies are so disappointing and the setbacks so punitive. But look at the bright side: If bullion can hold its own at a time when institutional investors continue to shun it, just think how well it’s going to perform when the portfolio managers finally get their heads out of their butts. Meanwhile, take a look at the chart in order to put the piddling decline of the last two weeks in proper perspective... Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 16 June, 2017
Gold pulled back after the Fed’s announcement yesterday, but appears to have been factored in to the gold price now. What influences will now be brought to bear on the gold price. First and foremost the trend will dominate, alongside the path forward for the dollar. Shanghai will more than likely increasingly dominate the gold price.
With U.S. equity market this high, we expect to see them become increasingly vulnerable to falls. This may well lead to sellers in these markets turning to gold for wealth preservation. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 15 June, 2017
In essence, Janet Yellen’s statement showed that the Fed sees a moderately growing U.S. economy that will continue to grow at a moderate pace. No accommodation of President Trumps intended policies was made. The Fed Funds rate after the rise is lower than inflation levels and look like remaining there as the Fed Funds rate, if the economy remains on the path they expect it will. If the economy remains on this path, then by the end of the year, the Fed will begin to reduce its Balance Sheet. It will be a very slow process intended to give markets no stress. As a result equity markets may rise more ignoring institutional worries that they are already too high. It is clear that hopes of a robust economy in the near future are unrealistic. For gold this was overall positive because of low inflation levels. Full Story
I see just about everyone has their own theory or trading discipline on where the US dollar is headed next. It’s all these different ideas that make the markets work. Everyone can’t be bullish at the bottom or bearish at the top, it’s just the way it has to be.
For my 2 cents worth I’m still looking at the possible fractal, bullish rising wedge as a halfway pattern to the upside. Full Story
As we came into 2017, I was looking for the metals market to bottom and begin a strong rally for 2017 which would take us back to the highs of 2016 and beyond. Thus far, the market has bottomed, but we have only been consolidating for most of the year. Full Story
Growing evidence of slowdown in UK property market Slow-down in activity in UK housing market in run up to UK election Average UK house prices dropped in the three months to May Halifax report annual house price growth fallen to a four-year low of 3.3 percent. “Political instability breeds procrastination on the part of homebuyers and sellers” Sterling drop will increase divide in housing market, first time buyers continue to struggle House price growth has lost momentum, volumes continue to drop Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 14 June, 2017
While there is no evidence of Chinese gold price manipulation we have seen gold’s pricing power shift to Shanghai. But with Shanghai trading gold lower than New York and London, that pricing power evaporated yesterday and today, because of demand for gold in western markets. Shanghai’s figures tomorrow will expand that story. It certainly does not seem that lower Shanghai gold prices can pull London and New York down. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 13 June, 2017
If the Central banks try to pull back on asset purchases, then the market will start to do a NOSE-DIVE. This would likely motivate them to come back in with ALL GUNS BLASTING. So, pay attention to the increase in Central bank asset purchases as a clue to know when they are becoming desperate.
This massive increase in Central bank asset purchases is a last ditch effort to prop up the market and cap the gold price. While they may have more propping up to do, they will likely have to increase their level of buying even more. As it goes exponential… then we know the END IS NEAR. Full Story
The 11th edition of the annual “In Gold we Trust” is another must read synopsis of the fundamentals of the gold market, replete with excellent charts by our friend Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and his colleague Mark Valek of Incrementum AG. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 13 June, 2017
So when one looks at gold imports to China from wherever, it does go under the government’s control. Ownership and control are two entirely different things [as one finds out, if one does not pay one’s mortgage for six months]. This sets the future scene where one has to ask, will western banks ever buy gold again? With Asia taking the bulk, if not all, newly mined gold for the last few years, any attempt by other global buyers, including central banks, will drive prices higher, much higher. Full Story
The gold reserves of the world’s biggest public sector investors reached an 18-year high as they hoarded the precious metal after Donald Trump’s election and the Brexit vote added to geopolitical uncertainty. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 12 June, 2017
The Fed begins its 2-day deliberations on interest rates ahead of its announcement on Wednesday. With Janet Yellen such a cautious person she may well have been disturbed by the poor data of late. While 94% of the market believes a rate hike must come this week, there is room, we believe, for a delay in the rate hike until the data is more positive. If she does, you will see the dollar weaken and perhaps equity indices move too high. We see gold benefitting if this does happen. Full Story
David McAlvany, CEO of the McAlvany Financial Companies, returns with his latest inspirational / motivational tome,The Intentional Legacy. He outlines key insights he's gleaned via decades of guiding investors to financial success to improving one's intangible legacy.
Bill Murphy of GATA.org and the host discuss the Bitcoin phenomenon and the implications to the precious metals sector.
As the high-flying digital currency approaches $3,000, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts and David Kranzler note how many markets are manic, except the precious metals Full Story
The commercial net short position in gold is now up to 21.64 million troy ounces of paper gold.
Ted said that the Big 4 traders added another huge chunk to their short position, as they increased it by about 19,900 contracts during the reporting week. The Big 4 have been going short big time over the last three weeks -- and neither Ted nor I are at all happy about that. The '5 through 8' large traders also added a chunky 9,300 contracts to their short position, which is also a big increase -- and Ted's raptors, the almost 50 small commercial traders other than the Big 8, reduced their long position by around 3,900 contracts. Full Story
If we are positive on gold we are even more positive on silver. Silver appears to be making a significant rounded bottom pattern. The breakout point is not that far away at $18.50 although to be safe a rise back above $20 would be quite positive and confirm lows. In the interim we have considerable support for silver down to $15.75 to $16.25. Silver is highly unlikely to fall below that level on any pullback. The rounding pattern projects up to at least $30 once it breaks out over $18.50. Note how the four-year MA appears to be acting as a stiff resistance level. The four-year MA is currently at $17.80. Silver poked its head above the average at the high of July 2016 at $21.83. But that has been it for the four years since the major breakdown in 2013. That also explains why it would be important to break that level and break above the long down trendline. It could certainly set silver on a bullish course. Full Story
Moreover, just because two assets seem to be moving in the same direction or even in opposite directions for a period of time, why would you rely on that continuing ad infinitum? I mean, applying linear analysis directly to a single non-linear market alone comes with great pitfalls, and you want to add a second layer of linear analysis on top of it? Unless you understand the market beyond a superficial seeming correlation, you will never have forewarning as to when such correlations may break. So, yes, placing your money in the market based upon correlations is doing no more than "hoping." Full Story
Gold’s failure at $1300 and weekly reversal have nullified any apparent breakout on the daily chart. Moreover, some traders and investors are neglecting the more important resistance levels of $1300/oz and the $1350-$1375/oz which stem from the 2013 and 2014 tops. The weekly reversal in Gold coupled with the continued poor performance from the gold stocks suggests a real breakout in Gold is not yet in the cards. The positive aspect is this failed breakout could lead to a selloff and ultimately lower risk entry points in a number of juniors. We will exercise caution and patience as we expect metals and miners to trend lower in the days and weeks ahead. Full Story
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