By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 17 February, 2006
Five weeks ago I penned an essay detailing 35 years of gold prices in real inflation-adjusted terms. At the time the financial media was trumpeting 25-year gold highs in order to scare investors away from gold. But in the real terms that truly matter, gold was only trading near early 1990s levels which are quite low in historic context. Perspective is everything in the financial markets. Full Story
Sure enough many ‘top-callers’ are lining up these days in order to justify their warnings since early December last year for a coming correction… As our readers know we took the exact opposite position and made the case for a strong HUI rally after breaching its long-term resistance of 250… We enjoyed the profitable HUI run from 250 to 350 and our discovery portfolio exploded to a 52% gain since November 2005 while others were waiting for a correction. Well, finally the correction came and one could wonder if we missed a sell-opportunity at HUI 350. Full Story
A close above $550 spot gold in New York would, in my mind, give an “all clear” signal and I would be back in full stride. If we don’t get it but instead come back to the $535 area again, one could consider putting half of what they took off the table back in and the other half if and when we close above $550 or go lower and test $510-$515. So either by $510-$515, $535 or above $550, one would find themselves fully back in. No matter what, by moving aside as I did, savings of 5% to 40% should have been achieved in gold and especially mining shares. Not bad for two weeks worth of work. Full Story
By: Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre - 17 February, 2006
Phase II is all about climbing the so-called wall of worry. Some very sophisticated investors have accumulated positions in bullion and mining shares, but the general public still has no idea what is going on. Gold, which is still primarily viewed as a hedge against terrorism, has yet to resurface as an inflation/U.S. Dollar hedge requirement for most mutual funds as it was during the 1980s. Full Story
While the gold market managed an upside breakout overnight and that accentuates the attempt to countervail the recent corrective action, the Gold market remains somewhat under a cloud of suspicion. Both the Chinese and Japanese gold markets were up slightly overnight, but those markets might have forged the gains in a follow up reaction to the US Thursday action. We might also add that Press reports overnight acknowledged the price gains overnight in foreign markets, but the trade in those markets also suggested that gold remained vulnerable. Full Story
Gold fell as much as $4 lower in Asia before climbing to find about $2 gains in London, but it then fell off to trade slightly lower in early New York trade before rebounding into the afternoon and finding decent gains by the close. Silver traded around 5 to 10 cents lower in Asia, London, and early New York trade, but it also rebounded heading into afternoon New York trade and ended with 1.63% gains. Full Story
Some of the elements that are effecting, or will effect the real estate markets have been touched on in this article. There are other factors, but the main issues have been discussed. We’re not dealing with a real market, and we are not dealing with real economics here. We are not dealing with reality at all! The problem is political! The fiscal policies of the US government are driving the real estate boom. Countries such China, who do not subsidize real estate, are already seeing a turn for the worse in their property markets. Full Story
We're getting there. As I see it the natural gas stocks (XNG) will turn positive again before the golds (HUI). Let's look. The bold trending line on the MACD indicator on the XNG has now crossed down over the slower trend line. That is our confirmation of the SlowSTO which crossed over in late January. Since that Jan SlowSTO crossover the XNG has been outperforming the HUI, i.e., going down at a lesser rate. You can see that on the "Price Relative To" indicator. Full Story
While we are not ready to concede a major top, we do think that the market is in for a rough ride in the near term. With the market tossing around the idea of producer hedging, there is certainly a countervailing force to the physical buying trend. In fact, just as the ETF and Index funds generated implied demand for gold, producer selling in a sense creates implied supply. However, forward selling can improve the supply and demand equation on paper but it won't help much in the event that physical and investment demand continue to rise. Full Story
Gold and silver held near unchanged in Asia and London, but they then fell off throughout most of trade in New York before rebounding slightly into the close to end off of their session lows. Both metals lost over 1% to erase most of yesterday’s gains. Gold and silver equities started off slightly lower before rising to find minor gains midmorning, but they then fell off in early afternoon trade and remained near their lows into the close to end with about 2.5% losses. Full Story
Welcome, Chairman Bernanke. May you ward off price inflation from reaching the core CPI. May you enact policies that continue to export inflation to Asia. Embrace those faulty statistics. You make me laugh with your explanation of the inverted Treasury yield curve. Your reason #1 of reduced inflation expectations and stable economy is self-serving, but it ignores the monstrous influence of outsourcing on job creation and cancerous transformation to a consumption economy centered on malls and retail chains, filled by omnipresent cheap imported products. Your reason #2 of a prevalent global savings glut ignores identification of the $700 billion trade deficit imbalance as a problem. Full Story
The markets have been amazing. Gold soared to 25 year highs this month. Platinum and copper surged to record highs, while silver and gold shares jumped to 22 and 10 year highs. But that’s not all… zinc, uranium, aluminum, lead and oil all soared as well. Full Story
The gold market managed an impressive bounce yesterday but might need to regain the $550 level in the April contract to actually turn the technicals positive. There were some reports of increased physical buying yesterday but the interest didn't appear to be dominating enough to completely throw off the recent liquidative tilt in the gold market. Fortunately, the gold market saw a much stronger than expected US retail sales report and a sharply higher US equity market run and yet the Dollar couldn't hold gains and that is a key development for gold. Full Story
Gold fell nearly $5 in early Asian trade before rebounding throughout trade in London to find about $5 gains, but it then fell back to near unchanged in early New York trade before rebounding to new session highs by the close. Silver followed a similar pattern but outshined gold’s 1.34% gain with a 2.42% gain. Gold and silver equities started off mixed before rising midday and ended with about 2% gains. Full Story
For the past week all news items have been dominated by the uproar caused by the Danish cartoons of Mohammed. The questionably delayed violent religious reaction coupled with the bounty of 100 kilos of gold to the person killing the artist and 5 kilos of gold to persons killing any Danish or German soldier has dramatically highlighted the differences between the laissez faire attitudes of modern Western society relative to Middle Eastern religious fervor. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 14 February, 2006
Some of the words that are commonly used by economists and financial journalists create an inaccurate picture of what's really happening in the world. The words "inflation" and "deflation", for instance, are routinely used to describe changes in prices, but using the words in this way will tend to mislead. This is because prices change for many different reasons and most of these reasons have nothing to do with inflation or deflation. For example, when Walmart reduces its costs and selling prices by arranging for its products to be manufactured in China the resultant fall in prices has nothing to do with deflation. Full Story
With the gold market seeing a second large compacted correction within 5 trading sessions, we suspect that a growing portion of the spec long camp is becoming very uncomfortable. In fact, the absence of detectable physical buying interest yesterday was the most undermining development from the action Monday, as that hints at a slight change in the complexion of the gold market. In other words, the recent action in gold hasn't resembled the January 17th through 19th correction in gold, as buyers have yet to step up and countervailed the selling pressure and the gold market is now in the 8th day down off the highs. Full Story
As investors reflect on this current pullback in the precious metals stocks and warrants, perhaps this is a good time to continue our educational discussions on the advantages and disadvantages of owning warrants. First, let us not loose site of our overall views and objectives. Are we not in a long-term bull market? Are we not anticipating gold prices to exceed the previous highs of January 1980 as many analysts are now predicting possibly this year? Full Story
Gold traded around $5 lower in Asia before it rose throughout trade in London and found slight gains above $550 in early New York trade, but it then sold off for the rest of trade and ended near its lows with a 2.07% loss. Silver fell over 10 cents in Asia and traded nearly 20 cents lower in London, but it then rallied fiercely in early New York trade and found about 1% gains before it sold off dramatically into the close and ended near its lows with a 2.89% loss. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold-Authentic Money - 13 February, 2006
The market has accepted $60+ a barrel, global growth remains intact, so why fix what ain’t broke? O.P.E.C. is making stunning profits alongside the oil producers so why complain? O.P.E.C. can point a finger at refining bottlenecks while oil companies try to belittle record profits. Crisis over! Not so fast, this story is not over by a long shot. The whittling away of the surplus available is steady and unrelenting. A major oil crisis is inevitable if we extrapolate this picture. Full Story
Every great turning point has its Irving Fisher. He was the Yale economist who in October of 1929 proclaimed that stocks were at a “permanently high plateau.” Later that same month, the market crashed, the Depression started, and Fisher became an object lesson in the dangers of public prediction. Less perfectly timed but still pretty memorable was Business Week’s 1979 “Death of Equities” cover story, which declared stocks passé as an investment vehicle--just before the start of the greatest bull market in history. Full Story
February is a month known for consolidating or correcting previous upside runs in the gold stocks, an observation we discussed in our previous commentary last week. Historically, February is often used to work off the excess "froth" from the upside runs and to put the sector back on a more even keel, technically. This correction, sorely needed in the gold stock sector, is now underway. Full Story
By: Joe Ferrazzano, Trade The Cycles - 13 February, 2006
Tuesday 2-7's 7 to 8% declines in HUI/NEM/XAU triggered a 2% follow through sell signal for the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 3 minor intermediate term upcycle (see 1 year charts), which began on 10-20-05 for HUI/XAU, 11-4-05 for NEM, and ended on 1-31-06. In the latest 1 year charts note that the Wave 3 trendlines broke down on 2-7. It looks like (if the Elliot Wave count for Wave 4 is correct) this will be a relatively brief 3 weekish Wave 4 (see NEM 1 month chart, fourth chart), thanks partly to Tuesday 2-7's huge decline. Full Story
The gold market made a negative chart trade overnight and with Chinese and Asian markets simply adding into the poor US close from Friday, we suspect that a downward probe is ahead. We would expect buyers to surface for the metal but given the relative proximity of today's weakness, to the early February washout in gold prices, it would seem like the bears are garnering an upper hand. Full Story
The Gold and Silver Review at GoldSeek.com presents Elliott Wave technician, Roland Watson and market analyst, Jim Willie. We'll also have Dave Morgan back to discuss his great call on the silver market last week. Full Story
After starting off a few dollars higher in early Asian trade, gold soon fell off and held slightly under $560 in London and early New York trade, but it then fell off markedly in midmorning New York trade and remained near its lows into the close to erase nearly all of its gains from Thursday. Silver followed a very similar pattern and ended near its Tuesday lows. Gold and silver equities fell off over 4% in the first hour of trade before rebounding slightly from there, but they still ended notably lower. Full Story
Gold has risen very steeply recently, and is running a huge gap between its 50 and 200-day moving averages. Common sense dictates that it is vulnerable to a significant reaction here, and should this come to pass a corollary of this is that the big gold stocks, which are still very overbought, could give back a sizeable percentage of their recent gains fast. How much? - the following charts are intended to give you an idea. Full Story
The Gold and Silver markets almost created some excitement this week. With the metals breaking down, they were moving toward over sold in the short-term. In fact, we were checking our schedule to insure availability if we needed to send out a short-term buy signal. Then, the story of a nerve agent in Washington circulated through the markets. That sent the markets up sharply from near over sold short-term conditions. After a reality check, the markets then withered. Full Story
Gold did move higher in response to silver’s late January breakout, but it did not succeed in breaking free of the influence of its long-term uptrend return line and advancing significantly as expected, and is therefore now vulnerable at best to a period of consolidation and at worst to a significant reaction. The first cracks appeared on Tuesday with a $20 plunge, that was not made good by the strong performance on Thursday, which is viewed as providing traders with another chance to cut positions. Full Story
The silver chart looks considerably more favourable than the chart for gold right now, and, of course, given that these metals have a tendency to move together, an implication of this is that gold may bust out above the constraining return line of its long-term uptrend channel and go ballistic, an event that looks technically unlikely, but could be occasioned by an extraordinary event such as a surprise attack on Iran, which the media are busy preparing the malleable public mind for. The Iranians are very unlikely to be allowed to get away with opening an oil exchange that trades in anything other than US dollars. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 12 February, 2006
We are almost sure everyone has a ton of questions regarding our projection that the markets are going to top towards the end of the first quarter or the middle of the 2nd quarter. Before we get into the heart of the matter just remember that a lot can happen in 3 months in terms of gains. We have not turned bearish yet but are simply warning that it looks like things could change in the not too distant future. Many forces are aligning up and if things continue to unfold as they are doing so right now the markets could be in for a rather hard landing. Full Story
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