By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 17 March, 2006
After stealthily launching without fanfare in 2001, the Great Commodities Bull of the 00s is finally starting to pick up some steam. This powerful bull market, the first this realm has witnessed in decades, will probably prove to be the biggest commodities boom in world history. How can I advance such a brazen assertion? Like a freak rogue wave in the open oceans, a nearly perfect confluence of smaller commodities waves is coming together at this peculiar time in history to produce a monster commodities wave. A rapidly growing world coupled with constrained commodities supplies is creating unparalleled opportunities for investors. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 17 March, 2006
Over the past two years the US$ inflation rate has been less than the inflation rates of the euro, the Pound, the Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar. This inflation rate advantage, combined with the dollar's interest rate advantage over most of its major competitors in the fiat currency world, has been the driving force behind a bull market in the Dollar Index that is presently 14 months old and is likely to last for at least another 6 months. We continue to believe, however, that this bull market is a counter-trend move within the context of a longer-term downward trend (a cyclical bull within a secular bear). Our reasoning is outlined below. Full Story
Today, we believe the bull market in precious metals is moving into a second phase, similar to how stocks started to regain the public’s confidence in the mid 1980s all the way through the mid 1990s. A so-called “wall of worry” remains to be climbed as phase II is sure to include several scary pullbacks over the coming years. Expect to see mainstream institutions and wealthy individuals enter the market, while the average mom and pop investor hold out faith that tech stocks and real estate will come back to the forefront. Full Story
The gold market should leave the week in a much better posture than it entered the week. In fact, with gold mostly shaking off the muted inflation situation this week, it is clear to us that a forward progressing global economy is more important to gold, than the inflation or flight to quality buying themes. In the overnight Press, a Chinese consultant suggested that China should build their gold reserves and given the burgeoning Chinese trade surplus, we would think that is a natural progression. Full Story
Gold and silver traded modestly lower in Asia but rose in London to near unchanged by the New York open which saw both metals move up over $555 and $10.30 to find decent gains. Both metals then dropped soon after 9AM EST, however, and fell to under $550 and $10.15 at one point before rebounding and rising back near the unchanged level by the close of trade. Silver lost a penny to fall from 22 year highs while gold was able to end back up near its highs of the session with a gain. Full Story
A few key signals should gain attention as the investment community struggles to fix on accurate indications for US Federal Reserve policy changes. A review is offered to paint a broader picture than a mere glimpse at the Treasury Yield Curve and its future shape. At the same time, a claim is made that debt rating agencies have been solicited to join the USFed policy. Lastly, FedSpeak is an exported practice of deception, now used in Tokyo, Brussels, and Vienna (OPEC) in order to attempt to control important markets. Full Story
The Dow Industrials recorded their highest close in nearly five years, but you’ll have to pardon us if we don’t sound too excited about it, at least not yet. In fact, the blue chip average has gained less than five percent in the last two years in relation to the important peak recorded in February 2004. That turned out to be the top of a very powerful, 12-month bull run -- one whose trajectory has flattened considerably since, giving us two years of tedium that persists to this day and notwithstanding yesterday’s multiyear high. Full Story
Yesterday the gold market started off soft but managed to carve out a fresh high for the move. Today we are a little more skeptical as the gold market will have to face what is expected to be a muted US CPI report. Fortunately, for the bull camp, the US Dollar is softer and the US equity market is pointing to forward progress in the US economy. We also see slightly weaker energy prices early this morning and therefore a number of outside market forces appear to be hinting at weakness in gold prices. Full Story
Gold and silver remained near unchanged in Asia and London before gaining in morning New York trade to over $555 and $10.35, but they then both fell off a bit into the close and ended with only about half of the day’s morning gains. Silver made a new 22-year closing high. Full Story
Pulling the trigger when set for semi-auto gives the shooter a three-round burst. A flip to full auto sets the sear mechanism in the receiver to unrelenting rapid fire. Today we fired at selected gas and gold stocks in semi-auto mode. We do not have full technical analysis justification to do so. Gold, silver, HUI, and the XNG still do not indicate a full "Go" in their respective Weekly indicators such as the MACD or the Slow Stochastics as defined numerous times previously which are lodged in the archives of this site. However, there are selected stocks within these groups which do exhibit cyclical correction completion. It was those in which we took positions. Full Story
FYI, gold should be moving more or less in-synch, since the last gasp of yesterday’s robust rally created a promising impulse leg on the hourly chart. If you study the chart above, you’ll see that the April contract did not call it a day until it had surpassed a tiny peak recorded on March 8 at 552.50. A subtle accomplishment for sure, but it should be viewed as a reliable sign nonetheless that the rally in gold is likely to continue. Full Story
The action of the last two sessions certainly serves to countervail the bearish track of the last two weeks. With oil prices seemingly rising in sync with the precious metals markets we are inclined to look to energy prices this morning for near term direction in the precious metals. Given that oil prices are down early today and could be given added pressure in the wake of weekly oil inventory data later this morning, we suspect that gold might come under some light profit taking pressure today. However, the gold market should have been cheered yesterday by the hope that the US Federal reserve will only be hiking rates 1 or 2 more times. Full Story
Gold dropped about $3 in Asia and held about $2-$4 lower in London and early New York trade, but it then rallied throughout late morning and afternoon New York trade and ended near its highs of the session with an over 1% gain for the second day in a row. Silver fell as much as 15 cents in very choppy trade in Asia and London and came into New York about 5 cents lower before gaining throughout trade in New York to end near its highs of the session at a new 22 year closing high. Full Story
Silver BULLION clearly has the ability to way outperform Gold. Good Silver producers with controllable cost structures stand to make MASSIVE gains in the coming years. Clearly everyone MUST have some exposure to Silver’s terrific upside even though it may not fully materialize in the NEAR future. At this time I feel a portfolio weighting of 20% in Silver related investments is a good allocation. Full Story
Last weekend’s hidden-pivot seminar drew some goldbugs, and so we naturally lingered for a while on the chart below, which shows the Comex April contract. It is more bullish than I had originally realized, notwithstanding the fact that gold bulls have been getting hammered for the last five weeks. What led me to this conclusion? Well, in the first place, the bearish impulse legs have been relatively feeble. Let me explain. All major trends begin with an “impulse leg,” and the more powerful the impulse, the more long-lasting the new trend is likely to be. Full Story
The gold market was certainly lifted by what appeared to be a broad based metals rally on Monday but it was no coincidence that the rally took place in the face of a Dollar slide and an impressive energy market rally. In other words, gold appears to need some outside help to bring physical buyers back into the fray. Full Story
Gold rose near $545 in Asia before dropping a bit heading into London trade, but it soon jumped back up to $545 before again selling off a couple dollars in early New York trade. Gold then started back higher at about 10AM EST, however, and rose throughout the rest of trade to end near its highs with an over 1% gain. Silver remained near unchanged in Asia before rising slightly in London, but it then fell to find slight losses in early New York trade before it rose with gold into the close and ended near its highs with over 2% gains. Full Story
Ever since bottoming in 2001, gold has managed to climb the proverbial “wall of worry.” Along the way, there were several consolidation and corrective phases just like the one we’ve been experiencing lately. They’re never much fun but are a necessary evil en-route to new, all-time highs in gold, IMHO. Full Story
By: Joe Ferrazzano, Trade The Cycles - 13 March, 2006
NEM and the XAU completed their Wave 4 multi-week downside gap filling action on Friday 3-10 when the XAU filled it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22-05, and, they appear to have hit major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 cycle lows, but a 2% follow through buy signal is required before "Trade the Cycles" will flash a Wave 5 minor intermediate term cycle buy signal. Both bottomed near their major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts), while HUI may have bottomed well above it's major upcycle trendline, which would indicate that it's major upcycle since 5-16-05 has increased in strength. Full Story
While the market might be showing some early strength this morning and the Press is carrying some slightly upbeat views on the near term outlook for gold prices, we are not convinced that the corrective action has totally run its course yet. We have seen signs of renewed long bullion interest, especially in Japan but the Dollar remains a threat to long gold players. While the US payrolls were stronger than expected and indicative of decent growth, the up tick in the US unemployment rate was partially countervailing. Full Story
Gold remained near unchanged in Asia before it dropped in London and early New York trade to around $535, but it then rebounded back to $540 and remained near that level into the close. Silver jumped around in Asia to under $9.75 at one point but it came into London near unchanged which then saw the price steadily grind back down to about $9.75 in early New York trade. Silver rebounded from there, however, and ended near its highs of the session with a loss of just one penny. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold-Authentic Money - 12 March, 2006
From time to time we have commented on the dire situation in Zimbabwe. We are a-political, non-racial and unbiased in our work. But we call a spade, a spade! In that spirit, we comment on the human tragedy reaching the pits in Zimbabwe at present. In common with all other countries, Zimbabwe is defined by a line around a piece of land on the map. Within that area the government can do what it likes and be free from any fear of interference from outside. Full Story
What a week!! A gold share sell off so typical of the Elliott final collapse wave in a classic a-b-c correction. But this is NOT the end of the run. It is merely the second correction since the market low in June 2005. It is the 3-4 move out of the five wave format and there is still the substantial fifth wave upside leg to come. In addition the gold index has mapped out a classic flag pattern that is a BULLISH pattern. So all is not lost. It is just the end of a sharp correction. Full Story
The content on this site is protected
by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com
and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any
information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com.
This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other
features found on the site. Please contact
us for any further information.
Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer
The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy
or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics,
analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction
and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained
on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC,
is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be
liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon
the information provided herein.
