Gold fell slightly in Asia, rebounded to find small gains in London, and climbed near $620 in early New York trade, but it then fell off throughout most of the rest of trade and dropped to as low as $606.90 before it rebounded in the last minutes of trade and ended 0.55% lower on the day. Silver followed a very similar pattern, but its rebound in the last minutes of trade took it higher on the day and it was able to end with a gain of 0.17%. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 18 August, 2006
This year has been the most exciting witnessed in silver for decades. The fabled white metal entered 2006 below $9, blasted up to challenge $15 by early May, and has since retreated back near $12. The sheer magnitude of these moves has created something of a speculator wonderland in this restless metal. Full Story
The major trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 60-day moving average. The moving average crossover down (9 below 18) indicates a possible developing short-term downtrend. Daily stochastics are trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. The next downside target is now at 610.6. The next area of resistance is around 634.5 and 647.5, while 1st support hits today at 616.1 and below there at 610.6. Full Story
Gold and silver are still in a secular bull market. The current correction is the summer correction with minimal volumes and provides yet another opportunity for entry at lower levels. Full Story
Gold held near unchanged in Asia and traded a couple of dollars higher in London, but it then fell off throughout trade in New York and ended near its lows of the session with a loss of 2.10%. Silver rose over 15 cents in Asia before it fell back near unchanged in London, but the real drop came in New York trade which took it under $12 to close with a loss of 2.37%. Full Story
Wow! Is it really almost time for another Silver Summit? How time flies when we are in a precious metals bull market! I can't get there this year, but I hope to in 2007. The Silver Summit needs an optimist to offset the cloud of gloom and doom that hangs heavy over Mogambo's head! Full Story
Back in 1995, early experiences with gold charts were fascinating as my teeth were cut during the last emergence from a recession. The end of that USFed Reflation Initiative was rocky, turbulent, and chaotic, but far more successful than the current effort. Many analysts fully expected a rise in price inflation, and an associated rise in the gold price. My expectation echoed theirs, but the growing Asian outsourcing trend had thoroughly caught my attention, since my days with a major computer mfg firm were still fresh in my mind. Full Story
The market now above the 60-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. Market positioning is positive with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next downside target is now at 631.7. The next area of resistance is around 642.7 and 646.6, while 1st support hits today at 635.3 and below there at 631.7. Full Story
Gold needs to break $645.50 and $652.50 for $658.00. On the lower side $634.00 is the initial support with $621 and $618.80 as the key short supports. Full Story
Gold rose a few dollars in Asia and added to its gains in early London trade before dipping a bit coming into the New York open, but it then quickly rose to about $10 higher on the day to above $632. After that it fell to about $628 before again rising to above $632, but it then fell back off into the close to about $626 before rebounding in the last minutes of trade to end back above $628 with a gain of 0.96%. Silver rose about 5 cents in Asia and London before it added about another 25 cents in early New York trade, but it also sold off a bit into the close to end off its highs with a gain of 1.75%. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster Global Watch - 16 August, 2006
In a week where we were all faced with the drama of international Terrorism [I too got caught up in Gatwick Airport on my way to Spain], many wondered just why the gold price did not jump. This leads to the question, what will trigger a gold price rise? Will any news event such as last week’s events set off the market? Yes, they will, but the trick is to understand the difference between a bomb in Bali and a kidnapping in Nigeria. Full Story
After 22+ years, it takes a lot to perk my ears up regarding potential market action but it appears we may see some substantial moves beginning in September. While I plan to write a much more in-depth newsletter next month, I will now get you briefly caught up with my latest thoughts. Full Story
My technically savvy friend Garrett Jones thinks a pullback in gold later this month could provide the last good buying opportunity in quite a while. He also sees a potentially important turning point for stocks if they continue to rise into the beginning of September. That would coincide with the end of a four-year cycle that we usually associate with important lows. This time, however, it may be different. Here's Garrett to explain why: Full Story
The close under the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The market's close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The next downside objective is 626.9. The next area of resistance is around 636.1 and 639.8, while 1st support hits today at 629.7 and below there at 626.9. Full Story
Silver continues to outperform gold as it continues to rise. Silver is an industrial cum precious metal and fundamentally provides more value to the long term investor at the current levels. Full Story
Gold fell slightly in Asia and dropped a little more in London before it seesawed between $621 and $627 in New York and ended near its lows with a loss of 0.95%. Silver slumped a bit in Asia and continued to fall in London to as low as $11.80 in early New York trade, but it then rallied throughout most of the rest of trade in New York and ended with a loss of just 0.33%. Full Story
By: David Chapman, Union Securities - 15 August, 2006
They say the first casualty of war is truth. If that is the case then since the so-called War on Terror got underway following the events of 9/11 we have undoubtedly been fed considerable propaganda. Trouble is it is difficult to tell the lies from the truth and most people accept whatever they are told because it is the nature of people to want to believe their government and accept what they are being told as the truth. In other words they want to accept what they are being told because it is more distressing to discover that it may have been a lie. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 15 August, 2006
In our 17th July commentary, under the heading "The main flaw in the deflation case", we attempted to debunk the view that deflation (a contraction in the total supply of money and credit) will soon occur. In this earlier discussion we noted the theme common to the most persuasive arguments in favour of a deflationary outcome -- that the public's ability to borrow new money into existence will reach its zenith in the not-too-distant future -- and then explained that while this line of thinking appeared to be logical it missed a crucial point. The point is that the central bank, not the public, has always been and always will be the engine of inflation. Full Story
The market back below the 60-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down. Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The market's close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is 629.8. The next area of resistance is around 643.9 and 648.3, while 1st support hits today at 634.7 and below there at 629.8. Full Story
Gold dropped about $5 in Asia and fell even further in London before it rebounded in New York to get back near unchanged by early afternoon trade, but it then sold back off in the last 40 minutes of trade and ended 0.76% lower on the day. Silver fell about 15 cents in Asia and remained near $11.70 in London, but it then rallied throughout most of trade in New York and ended 1.68% higher on the day. Full Story
The 30-year Bond recently broke above resistance at 108.5 (interest rates moved lower). The Bonds are undoubtedly saying that a combination of weaker than expected Job numbers, housing, retail and now, higher Oil prices are all Signalling an economic Slowdown. Interestingly enough each low in Bonds preceded the corresponding low in the Dow by roughly 1 month (blue lines). If this correlation continues it will signal that the Dow will break above resistance at 11200 – 11300 by early September. Full Story
In the last update the view was expressed that gold had entered a trading range situation, and it was pointed out that this range may take the form of a Symmetrical Triangle, and provisional boundaries of this prospective triangle were delineated on a 6-month gold chart. Since that time gold has rallied, following the appearance of a bullish “hammer” candlestick just above an important support level, but the rally died at our upper triangle boundary and over the past couple of trading sessions gold has gone into retreat again. Full Story
After a period of gold outperforming silver, the tables have turned and in recent weeks silver has been outperforming gold. Both weakened late last week and look set to react, but whereas gold looks set to react to a support level, silver looks set to react to the lower boundary of an uptrend channel drawn from the June low. Full Story
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next downside objective is 626.1. The next area of resistance is around 654.0 and 664.4, while 1st support hits today at 634.8 and below there at 626.1. Full Story
It’s all about hedge funds and high money as far as metals are concerned. Gold and silver opened the week on a weaker note as gold December future fell to a low of $637.10 while silver September future fell to a low of $1176.00 on news of cease fire between Israel and Lebanon. Full Story
In an attempt to further define the larger process concerning this subject matter now, we would like to take you on a journey into the internal workings of the US stock market from a sentiment perspective, where it should be understood that as an end result, how hedgers and speculators bet in the derivatives market(s) largely effects general price direction as participants react to the manifestations of their wagers set against the totality of influences. Full Story
Derivatives scare many people. They don’t know what they are, or they may be quite unfamiliar with them. They don’t know how they work, and it’s not easy to learn. The amounts tossed around are fantastically huge. Most are traded behind the scenes. They are purchased in margin accounts, and this worries the untutored. Mysterious bankers, corporations, and dealers handle them mostly. Full Story
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