Gold traded mostly slightly higher in Asia and London before it steadily rose in late morning New York trade, doubled its gains in afternoon trade, and ended near its highs with a gain of 1.29%. Silver followed a similar pattern and gained 1.67%. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 19 January, 2007
After its rather ugly initial week of 2007, the HUI unhedged gold-stock index has started to recover in the past week. Not surprisingly, this has created a kind of psychological whipsawing for gold-stock traders wondering what is coming next. Did we just witness a minor pullback within an upleg or are we now seeing a bear rally within a correction? Full Story
As an investor, what matters to you more than anything, what is of paramount importance, is determining whether what you have invested in, or are thinking of investing in, is going to go up, down or sideways. If you are long you want the market to go up, if you are short you want it to go down, and if you have written both Call and Put options, you want it to move sideways. All consideration of fundamentals is subordinate to this Prime Objective. Full Story
Banco Azteca, which has about 1,000 branches throughout Mexico, is about to launch a new service for those who like to save silver. It is the first bank in Mexico to offer this service; other banks are expected to follow suit, sooner or later. Full Story
Gold and silver are caught between the US dollar and crude oil prices. The US dollars performance is mixed as it gains against the Euro and yen while it weakens against the sterling, suggesting the advent of carry trade. Full Story
Gold traded mostly slightly higher in Asia and London and rose to over $635 by about 10AM EST in New York, but it then fell for the rest of trade and ended near its lows with a loss of 0.76%. Silver followed a similar pattern and lost 1.41%. Full Story
Public readers of my weekly commentary have been asking about my prognosis of the gold market for 2007. I hate to disappoint you, but I do not predict or forecast. Here is what our current trading model says… Full Story
There would be little disagreement that silver outperforms gold in a precious metals (pm) bull market. There is also an argument that pm stocks give the investor additional leverage to outperform the metals. It is said the gold stocks outperform the gold metal by a ratio of 3-to-1. Maybe so. But, what has been overlooked by most is that silver as represented by SLV-ETF not only outperforms gold, it also shames the HUI, GDX & GDM by an easily recognizable graphic margin. Full Story
Well here we are in 2007 and from a retrospective viewpoint it’s surely been an exciting two years for all those cashing in on high Molybdenum prices. There must be a few gauging by the fact that since I wrote my first editorial on Moly in early /05, I have acquired a few thousand subscribers to this free editorial service. Some of them must have made out okay as they’re still following this metal of mystery & reading my commentaries w/o any hate mail. Full Story
The next couple years should deliver a shock to the economically and financially comatose US citizenry toward the deteriorating condition. The form of delivery might be a combination of a USDollar currency crisis and a profoundly stagnant USEconomy. The pressure is building, the resistance is formidable, but the forces are profound, since the potential for resolution from the imbalance is strong. Add the mortgage finance shock wave to the banking sector as the newest element. In fact, the sheer number of risk factors has grown to alarming levels. Full Story
The last eight weeks losses in energies and base metals will result in investors reducing their exposure in these sectors in 2007 and increasing their investments in gold, silver and other precious metals. Full Story
Gold fell a little over a dollar in Asia, dropped another few dollars in London, and came into New York nearly 1% lower at $620, but it then rose throughout most of the rest of trade and ended near its highs with a gain of 1.14%. Silver dropped to as low as $12.34 in early New York trade before it also rallied higher throughout most of the rest of trade and ended with a 2.00% gain. Full Story
Let's take a look at XAU:Silver ratio before going to individual Silver industry stocks. And It's not a secret that stocks usually are more reactive then the bullion... Full Story
2006 was a year when ‘liquidity’ became the most important word for the financial markets. Moreover, with foreign stocks booming and emerging market spreads falling to record lows (compared to US Treasury bonds), 2006 either marked a key turning point in global capital/financial market distribution patterns, or a repeat of the hot money inflow/outflow crisis’s that have plagued emerging market economies in the past. With this in mind, two important questions leading into 2007 are 1) Does a boom in places like China and India portend a bust, and 2) Will the US reaffirm its safe haven status during the next financial crisis or not? Liquidity driven investment minds want to know… Full Story
The good news for silver investors is that buying by the index funds of the ETF is better than buying of futures contracts. That the tech funds are fading as the index funds emerge is a beneficial development for silver investors. It will contribute to a price rise. As they say, out with the old, in with the new. Full Story
The Opec is divided over crude oil production as Saudia Arabia said yesterday that no further production cuts are needed to prevent further oil prices from falling. Full Story
Gold traded a couple dollars on either side of unchanged in world trade on Monday and early Tuesday and then rose a few dollars above Friday’s close in morning New York trade today, but it then dropped and traded a few dollars lower at $622.20 before it rallied back higher into the close and ended with a loss of just 0.06%. Silver traded mostly slightly higher in world trade on Monday before it fell off a bit in London today and then extended its losses in New York and ended near its lows with a loss of 1.96%. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 16 January, 2007
The bottom line is that when we take a long-term view of relative price performance we can see the footprints of an inflation problem exactly where we should be seeing them. The rules of the game haven't changed; all that's changed is the money in which prices are denominated. Specifically, money has been losing value at an accelerated pace and it's been doing so in a deceptive way. Full Story
The precious metals were another story as they strongly outperformed nearly all of the other markets, like they’ve done over the past six years. Gold rose 19.69% while silver soared 41.06%. Taking the average of these two metals, annual gains amounted to 30.38%, which was slightly more than double the gains in the strongest U.S. stock index, the Dow Industrials at 14.90%. Full Story
If 2005 and 2006 were collectively known as the “Years of Fear” then 2007 will probably be known as the year that fear dissipates, at least long enough to encourage the record amounts of sidelined capital back into the equities market. Extreme fear always gives way to extreme greed and the penultimate manifestation of greed is a spike in stock prices in which the public is heavily participating. We haven’t yet arrived at that point but when we do we’ll know the next market top is nigh at hand. Until then, investors should stay bullish and remain flexible to take advantage of the many opportunities the market presents in 2007. Full Story
Every once in a while, I have to pinch myself after hearing and reading so much concern about the price of gold. One would think it was $310 versus $618 based on all concerns and outright bearishness. Personally, I’m delighted to see bullish sentiment low yet no important technical indicators violated to the downside. Full Story
The precious metals are ahead of energy and the other commodities, having already put in a solid bottom, and are now attempting to break out from their recent trading range. In this respect gold is also ahead of the gold stocks regarding positive price action. The bottom line is that the precious metals are in a bull market until such time they are not. It is what it is until it isn’t – and as of now it is. This does NOT mean that their will not be air pockets and a bumpy ride ahead, as the bull tries to throw the rider off its back. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst - 15 January, 2007
The silver market continues to move in a state of flux as the metal struggles to free itself from its current period of price correction. However, one must not take this to be a sign of overall weakness in the silver bull market but rather a normal adjustment to the recent $15 highs that caused silver to race too far ahead of its normative indicators. In terms of Elliott Wave analysis, the most probable picture to me is laid out below. Full Story
In December 1981, I scooped Wall Street by predicting a grand cycle (10-20 year) bull market in stocks. Since that time, the DJI has gone from 800 to 12,000. Here in January 2007, I am predicting that this grand cycle bull has come to an end. A 10-20 year bear market in stocks (as represented by the DJI and S&P 500) is about to begin. Rough price objectives are 6000 DJI in nominal dollars and an 80% decline in real dollars. If you own stocks, then sell, sell, sell. Full Story
We have seen the severe smackdown anticipated in the last Gold Market update, although it did first manage to trip our overhead stops by a whisker before plummeting. This resulted in a breakdown from the intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area shown on the 6-month chart. On Friday, however, it surged back above the “neckline’ of this pattern, which is close to aborting. Although Friday’s rally was certainly impressive, we are definitely not out of the woods yet, as will be readily apparent when we look at the 6-year gold chart. Full Story
Silver suffered a similar New Year smack down to gold, broke down from a similar intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area, and broke back above the “neckline” of the pattern on Friday, which is as a result also close to aborting. The strength of the move on Friday indicates that we should see follow through next week, but that the advance will stall out either at the resistance in the $13.25 area, or possibly at the resistance zone in the $13.75 - $15.20 area. Full Story
For quite some time as most of you know I have relied on the weekly MACD and other indicators to trade. This weekend I have gone back to the books. I re-read Dennis Turner's 1975 book, Trading Silver - Profitably. I'd figured his strategies would have long since been antiquated especially since his computer models were accomplished with the archaic Fortran programming. Not so...or so it seems. Also, Turner was working with silver prices in the $1.40 range area!! In your dreams silver bug. Full Story
It has been a great start to 2007! And the start has given signals of the year ahead. Metals have been very volatile with gold and silver paring most of the early losses. Crude oil at below $55 a barrel was unthinkable a few months ago. Full Story
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