Economic data releases are useless at this point of time. Bank of England has cut its key interest rates to 0.10% in a second interest rate cut. World over zero interest rate is the norm. If and when the world gets over the corona virus, then gold price will break past $2000. Right now I am looking at $1270-$1830 wider range till end June. Full Story
This last chart for tonight compares gold to the US dollar. When the ratio is rising gold is outperforming the US dollar. Since the bottom in 2016 gold has been outperforming the US dollar up until 3 weeks ago. There was a false breakout above the blue trendline that was negated when the ratio traded back inside of the 2016 rising wedge.
For those that like fundamentals to study maybe you can put your skills to the test and figure out why the US dollar has formed a massive 14 year H&S base compared to most of the important currencies of the world. This massive base is going to be in play for years to come. Full Story
The U.S. dollar has been one of the few big winners lately, but this is hardly a good thing. If the greenback continues to strengthen, it will hurt U.S. multinationals whose overseas revenues are reckoned in currencies that would be falling. In addition, all who owe will need to repay their loans in dollars more dear than at the time they were borrowed. And it will sink prices for a broad variety of commodities, particular crude oil, that have been used to collateralize a super-leveraged derivatives market worth perhaps $1.5 quadrillion notional. Do you see the problem? Full Story
I had mentioned long before that there will be a big disconnect between future price of gold and silver and physical price of gold and silver. Yesterday physical price of silver was much higher than silver future. One three reasons why I have been telling to only invest in physical gold and physical silver for your retirement. Physical silver price was much higher than future price. One can trade in future for six months to one year. I have been dissuading people from investing in gold/silver exchange traded funds (ETF). Yesterday I was right. Full Story
The great debate on whether we’re going to see inflation or deflation has been answered in spades. For years some of the greatest minds of our time have discussed this issue in great detail with each side giving probable reasons as to why we’ll see either inflation or deflation. Both sides can make great points to their arguments but in the end only one side will win the battle that has been raging on for years. While the fundamentalist argue their points I’m going to show you from a Chartology perspective the true story of what is taking place in this great debate. Full Story
These guys really know what they are doing, and they have the patience and confidence to wait out the pandemic even if it takes another four to six weeks for fears to subside. The rally they are planning will overshoot even the most insanely optimistic valuations, but don’t be greedy about where to exit. That’s because the top is apt to be fleeting, and the selloff that follows nearly as steep as the short squeeze. All bets are off if the virus is still killing thousands of people six weeks from now. But if the death toll tapers off when crocuses start to bloom and robins sing, be ready for the Mother of All Rebounds. Full Story
The fall in gold will clear some short term investors and also result in a big increase in long term investors. Both gold and silver are good long term investment opportunities. In the short term gold and silver will see a see-saw type prices moves like yesterday. Global financial markets have to stabilize for gold and silver to for a short term direction. In the very short term both gold and silver are directionless. Full Story
I got pelted with garbage after the last (bearish) update was posted on the 1st because right after, gold zoomed back up following a $75.80 plunge, as we can see on its latest 3-month chart below, and this “swansong rally” even made it to a marginal new high, but it did not negate the bearish implications of the late February plunge. In the last update it was written “This kind of massive smackdown, which took the gold price straight down to its rising 50-day moving average, is viewed as a clear “shot across the bows” and is interpreted as meaning Big Trouble.” The call was correct as demonstrated by last week’s steep plunge back to the rising 200-day moving average, and by Precious Metals stocks cratering last week in a dramatic manner. Last week’s developments, especially in stocks, means that gold has been “holed below the water line” and should now get taken down hard along with silver as margin call afflicted investors dump everything indiscriminately over the side. Full Story
By: Avi Gilburt, Elliott Wave Trader - 16 March, 2020
Our long-term targets are still 4000+ in the SPX. And, thus far, I have not seen anything to dispel us of this notion. From our perspective, this was the 4th wave decline I had actually expected to see last year. But, it certainly took its sweet time to show up. Yet, that does not change the fact that it is likely a 4th wave. And, since Elliott’s structures are 5-wave structures, it still leaves me expecting a 5th wave in the coming years which should take us at least to 4000, with potential to move as high as 6000. Unfortunately, I will not have a more accurate target until we see the 1st and 2nd waves of that move complete, so we can set up our Fibonacci Pinball projections. Until then, enjoy the “correction,” as we likely have lower levels to still be seen based upon quite a number of charts. Full Story
Lesson learnt from last week plunge: Excess leverage in an investment class is bad for investment health. Invest in stocks, bonds or any asset class which have very strong fundamentals. Fundamentally strong investment recovers much faster than weakness one. But fundamentally strong asset class can give less investment returns. Gold is still fundamentally strong as compared to other asset class.
Everyone is talking about gold. After last week’s slide, no one will dare invest in silver. Gold-silver price are near parity never seen in before. Full Story
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