I heard from a very reliable source yesterday (April 19th) that the COMEX was meeting in emergency session. Knowing the reputation of this organization, I imagined that it certainly had to do with the current goings on in the precious metals market…especially silver. It was obvious to just about everyone who knows about the massive short positions in gold and silver that a short squeeze of biblical proportions was underway. Bill Murphy over at LeMetropole Café had been shouting it from the rooftops for some time as the open interest numbers were indicating just that. Then Ted Butler’s latest commentary “A Cornered Rat?” put the icing on the cake. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 21 April, 2006
This past week was one of the most fascinating I have seen in this commodities bull yet. Major commodities were hitting new highs all over the place, both bull-to-date and even all-time records in some cases. Crude oil in particular was blessed with some really exciting price action, achieving all-time-record nominal highs. Full Story
On the 6-month chart gold’s recent strong rise looks modest compared to what we have recently seen in silver. The rally towards the end of March and this month had opened up a large gap with its moving averages, and it had risen to push normal overbought limits in recent days, as can be seen from the RSI and MACD indicators at the top and bottom of the chart. Even though it is now reacting, this retreat is viewed as a healthy technical development that will serve to partially unwind the overbought condition, and thus create further upside potential. Full Story
Sentiment reversed at the flick of a switch in the precious metals markets today, especially in Silver, which had become insanely overbought this week. The “Greater Fool” theory was the only law in town and buyers were piling in aware of the markets’ overbought condition, in the belief that they could sell to even bigger idiots later on. This is fine as long as everyone plays the game, but someone evidently shouted “Fire!” in the packed theater today and the result was a stampede for the exits. Full Story
I think one of the most difficult obstacles for precious metals investors is to determine relative values. Unknowingly, we make it a complex exercise because we use a paper money medium to bridge our value determinations. Think about that for a moment. What is your house worth in American gold eagles? How much bacon can you get for an ounce of silver? Never mind. Put your calculator aside. We know we're going to need oil, cattle, bread and corn to live. We know they're going up in dollar price steadily. We can't buy them in advance with our paper medium and save them for when we need them. That's why we buy the metals. Full Story
Gold quotes plunged yesterday without having quite reached the $657 rally target I’d projected for the Comex June contract. The actual high was $649, representing an $8 shortfall. Usually, when a trend fails by this big a margin my outlook for the intermediate term (i.e., three to five weeks) will change to bearish. However, I have my doubts that so robust a bull as this one will abide such a lengthy correction. We’ll be better able to judge on Friday if the June futures interact with a hidden-pivot support not far below Thursday’s settlement price. Full Story
The market made a new contract high on the rally. The daily stochastics gave a bearish indicator with a crossover down. Momentum studies trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce lower price action. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The outside day down is somewhat negative. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh on the market. The next downside objective is 591.0. The next area of resistance is around 640.3 and 659.9, while 1st support hits today at 605.9 and below there at 591.0. Full Story
Gold rallied to new 25 year highs in after hours trade late yesterday and held near $635 in Asia before it rallied to new highs above $645 in London, but it then dropped dramatically in morning New York trade, falling over 3% at one point to under $610 before a rebound into the close brought it back near $620. Silver climbed over $14.60 in after hours trade late yesterday and dropped down near $14.00 in Asia before it rallied back above $14.60 in London, but it then plummeted in New York to find losses of nearly 15% to under $12.50. Silver was not able to find the rebound that gold did and it ended at its low of the session. At the time of writing, gold is down 1% from its close and silver is down over 3% under $12 in today’s after hours session. Full Story
The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. today announced margin changes for its gold, silver, and copper futures contracts, beginning at the close of business on Friday. Full Story
The comments I’m about to make are certainly not going to be to everyone’s fancy and some will end up calling me something far worse than a party-pooper. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how important honesty is to you), I think it’s real close to another one of those “steps back” in the “two steps up, one step back” mode I’ve often spoken about in describing the price rise in this secular bull market in metals. In addition to the caution, I’m now going to wave my first red flag (NASCAR fans will understand the difference between a yellow and red flag) on any metal since turning bullish on them back in the spring of 2003. I only hope you will still love and respect me in the morning. Full Story
Have you ever taken a mallet to sterling heirloom flatware and pulverized it to piece of mangled junk? I have. You have to do this to get the plaster filling out of the handles before it's weighed for its value. Candlesticks, server sets, it doesn't matter; cash is worth more to the owner than any family heritage sentimentality. Once weighed, the customer paid, the sterling was tossed in one of numerous garbage cans. One for the forks, knives, spoons, another for the candlesticks and larger pieces. Of course the donor would have to sign a liability waiver, for once that mallet hits the heirloom its antiquity value is no more. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 20 April, 2006
Gold has just broken through the $640 level at a pace that has taken even the most hardened “Gold Bug’s” breath away. Most gold commentators are still standing opened-mouthed, their forecasts close to $100+ below present levels already. Why have they been caught out of touch in this way? We hear that Iran and the Oil price are to blame, but there is a larger, integrated and global set of factors that have produced and will still produce this phenomenon and will continue to do so for quite a few years to come. Full Story
Don’t be fooled by the lack of follow-through yesterday, since it is exactly the kind of dullness we should expect from a stock market grown increasingly adroit over the last few years at goosing shorts. Realize that Tuesday’s 192-point rally was not the kind of event that happens in a vacuum. Rather, it was a powerful impulse leg that practically guarantees a second surge once the miserably stupid excesses of the first have been corrected. Full Story
A new contract high was made on the rally. Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The gap upmove on the day session chart is a bullish indicator for trend. There could be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 645.0. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 641.8 and 645.0, while 1st support hits today at 630.1 and below there at 621.5. Full Story
Gold steadily climbed higher in Asia and London to about $625 by the open in New York. It then briefly dropped back near $620, but it soon continued its rise and rocketed higher into the close to end near its highs of the session with a 2.16% gain. Silver jumped above $14 in Access trade late yesterday before it fell back near unchanged in Asia, but it then steadily climbed higher in London and New York and ended near its highs with a 5.29% gain. Both metals are also trading about 1% above their closing levels in today’s after hours Access trade at the time of writing. Full Story
You think inflation is worse than the ridiculous official figures? You have seen nothing yet. The Central Banks are well into a synchronised hyperinflation mode and have been since June/July of 2005. Let’s have a look at a chart which shows the S&P 500 which is the black line and the predominantly red line is the S&P 500 divided by the Gold price which equals the Gold standard price. Last June/July 2005 it took approximately 2.85 ounces of Gold to purchase the S&P 500 today it only costs 2.11 make no mistake in real money terms or to put it a better way in GOLD STANDARD TERMS the market has completely broken down out of its trading range which was in force since the beginning of 2003. Full Story
The rally brought the market to a new contract high. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The near-term upside objective is at 629.4. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 627.2 and 629.4, while 1st support hits today at 619.4 and below there at 613.7. Full Story
Gold traded a couple dollars on either side of unchanged in Asia and London, but it then steadily climbed higher in New York and ended near its highs of the session at a new 25 year high. Silver traded in a wide range of about $13.35 to $13.70 in Asia, London, and early New York, but it then surged higher in afternoon New York trade and ended with a 3.29% gain at a new 22 and ½ year high. Full Story
Margins for the silver futures contract will increase to $3,750 from $3,250 for clearing and non-clearing members and to $5,063 from $4,388 for customers. Full Story
With the first three-and-a-half months of 2006 behind us, now would be a good time to look back and reflect on some of the head-spinning events that have already transpired in what is turning out to be a bloody, violent year. But before we get into the financial and economic considerations (including gold), let’s take a look at the socio-political events that have been dominant thus far. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 18 April, 2006
We think the chart's message is that the Fed will continue to hike the official short-term interest rate until after US equities commence their next bear market. The idea that the stock market outlook is bright because the Fed is about to end its rate-hiking is therefore nonsensical since the thing that is most likely needed in order for the Fed to end its rate hiking is the commencement of a large and lengthy downturn in the stock market. Full Story
I can see as high as $703, basis June, but we’ll get to that in a minute. First let me mention that subscribers who followed my advice to-the-letter could have caught one heckuva ride in gold yesterday, having boarded the June Comex contract Sunday evening, just as it was lifting off the launcher. Here’s the actual recommendation, exactly as it went out on Thursday at the start of the three-day weekend: Full Story
The market made a new contract high on the rally. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. If yesterday's gap higher on the day session chart holds, additional buying could develop this session. The market's close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. The next upside objective is 627.9. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 624.7 and 627.9, while 1st support hits today at 612.9 and below there at 604.3. Full Story
Spot gold and silver rose to new 25 and 22 and ½ year highs in world trade last Friday, but both were held just slightly under the psychologically important $600 and $13 levels going into the weekend. Those levels were immediately broken at the open of trade in Asia in early trade on Monday, however, as gold immediately surged to about $605 and silver rocketed to about $13.25. Gold remained a couple of dollars above $605 in early New York trade and then furthered its gains in afternoon trade to end up near $615 at a new 25 year high. Silver fell back near $13.15 in early New York trade, but it also rallied to new highs into the close and ended at a new 22 and ½ year high. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 17 April, 2006
A strike against Iran is close to a certainty now. Few doubt this it seems. But we have to ask why? Yes, the nuclear enrichment programme is a focal point, but far more is at stake here. And we are not talking about political factors or nuclear threats. We are talking of the consequences of these actions. We are not here to moralise, to justify or support or oppose any of these actions. We are here to help our Subscribers assess the consequences and their effect on the gold market primarily, through the events that take place in this globe of ours. Full Story
On December 5, 2005 I speculated that the ‘odds of gold squeeze [were] on the rise’, and that ‘the price of silver could quickly double’. Just over four months later and the price of gold is up by more than $100 an ounce and silver is up by more than 60%. Why was December 5, 2005 a notable date in the precious metals bull? Because by December 5 the price of gold had surged through a key psychological barrier ($500 an ounce) with no sign of excessive small speculation, the COT was showing signs of losing their once unflappable grip on the market, and NYMEX was unsuccessfully trying to rig the game (on Nov 28, 05 NYMEX raised margin requirements on gold and silver; a move that, arguably, has been done on a timely basis in the past to help the commercials). Compared to December 5 how does today stack up? Full Story
Bullion touched $600 last week and that brought out all the forecasters of $700, $800 and $1000. Once again I must ask why were all these so called experts nowhere to be seen when gold was $250? Usually I am concerned when so many ‘experts’ forecast big gold bull markets. But in this case I am gratified. Full Story
I’m not easily astonished these days, but I was pulled up sharp early this weekend by a truly astonishing chart sent to me by a very learned and experienced subscriber in California. This chart is reproduced in two sections below - it had to be split in half as an attempt to reduce its size to fit on the page resulted in serious loss of picture quality. The chart is self explanatory and reveals that, although silver is seriously overbought, it is in a similar technical situation to that which prevailed before the incredible superspike in 1979. Full Story
In the financial markets, if there are equal numbers of buyers and sellers, prices would be flat. When buyers overwhelm sellers in a continuous basis, we have a bull market. When sellers overwhelm buyers, we have a bear market. In technical analysis, not everyone sees the same thing in a chart. Optimists tend to look for the positives, and pessimists tend to look for the negatives. One pattern stands out which appeals to both optimists and pessimists is the “cup with handle” pattern. Of course, only optimists see it as a cup with handle, pessimists see it as a double top. Full Story
The daily stochastics gave a bearish indicator with a crossover down. Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next downside objective is now at 591.9. The next area of resistance is around 603.5 and 605.6, while 1st support hits today at 596.7 and below there at 591.9. Full Story
Gold fell a few dollars in Asia and traded just slightly lower in London before it briefly dropped in early New York trade to nearly $590, but it then rebounded throughout the rest of trade in New York and ended just slightly lower on the day to close just $1.10 from the 25 year closing high it set on Monday. Silver traded in a range from about $12.50 to $12.75 in Asia, London, and early New York trade, but it then exploded higher into the close and ended with a 1.74% gain at a new 22 and ½ year high. Full Story
The content on this site is protected
by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com
and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any
information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com.
This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other
features found on the site. Please contact
us for any further information.
Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer
The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy
or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics,
analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction
and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained
on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC,
is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be
liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon
the information provided herein.
