As we see it, things are only going to get worse for Treasuries and better for bullion. Think about it. We have a number of indicators pointing to an economic slowdown, both globally and in the US. We have an inverted yield curve on 10-year/ 3-month Treasuries); inversion presages a recession within 14 months with almost 100% reliability. There are several hot spots in the world that boost safe haven demand, like Iran, the South China Sea, Yemen, just to name a few. We have an unresolved trade war with China and a revised NAFTA agreement that has yet to be ratified. A trade fight between the US and the EU over autos is also brewing. Central banks are dumping Treasuries and buying gold. There’s a global movement afoot to increase stimulus to goose flagging economies, evidenced by low inflation. If the Fed does go ahead and lower rates, the dollar will follow suit. It may keep falling if a currency war ensues, which becomes more and more likely the longer we go without a China-US trade deal.
Unless something drastic happens, like Trump finding religion in “Xism”, or backs off on Iran (Iran shot down a US drone, the US is going to retaliate), or the Fed reverses course and raises interest rates, it’s the perfect storm for gold. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA, Zeal Research - 21 June, 2019
Gold finally surged to new bull-market highs this week! Several years after its last bull high, gold punched through vexing resistance after the Fed continued capitulating on ever normalizing. This huge milestone changes everything for gold and its miners’ stocks, unleashing new-high psychology fueling self-feeding buying. With speculators not yet all-in and investors wildly underdeployed, gold has room to power much higher. Full Story
Summary: Gold closed at $1348 today according to Stockcharts but is now much higher at $1365 as I write this update. My two longer-term weekly charts on GLD show the potential for a massive upside breakout where price could really run hard & fast. My first chart is a 6 Year weekly showing a massive inverse Head & shoulders pattern that is ready to bust out to the upside of the inverse neckline. Remember that the bigger the pattern in Time, the more powerful the Breakout potential. My second chart is a 2 year weekly showing a large “Cup & Handle” pattern, which is another bullish structure where price could really run. Full Story
Drone Thursday - 100% July Cut in Rates Priced in - Gold Market is responding to falling dollar, rates, FOMC, drones, safe haven buying roaring into the market.
The gold stocks meanwhile have been on an absolute tear. GDX is up 16 of the past 17 trading days and has gained 23% over that period. GDXJ is up 13 of the past 17 sessions and has also gained 23% during that period.
GDX closed right at resistance at $25. It could blow through it and reach a multi-year high at $27 or it could first correct and consolidate around $25. Full Story
Bullion’s powerful rally this week has kicked this popular mining-stock vehicle into high gear. I haven’t tracked it in quite a while but aim to do so now, provided it remains feisty and interesting. In that regard, GDX looks like it’s about to ratchet up the interest-level, although not in a way we might have preferred. Notice that Thursday’s energetic short-squeeze brought the ETF within inches of a target at 25.58. This Hidden Pivot resistance can be used as a minimum upside objective for now, but don’t expect GDX to pop through it on the first try. More likely is a pullback of sufficient magnitude that you should consider taking a partial profit or doing covered writes in the range 25.42 – 25.70 if you are long. Please note that if buyers should blow past D=25.28 with ease, that would imply that the target of a bigger pattern is in play. In this case, it would be 36.67(!), a Hidden Pivot whose provenance goes back to a low at 12.40 recorded early in 2016. The target corresponds to one at 1412 for Comex August Gold that I disseminated to subscribers several weeks ago. Full Story
Apart from the technical, Iranian issue is also contributing to gold’s rise. Momentum is bullish for gold and crude oil. Silver has a lot of potential to rise IF it tries to play catch up with gold. China is trying to mediate for a denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Developments in Korea will not have any effect on gold or currency markets. Full Story
It’s not a chart of nominal HUI with upside technical targets. We’ll do that in NFTRH this weekend, along with the usual individual miners. Rather, it’s a companion to other charts we’ve been reviewing over the last several months showing the under valuation of the gold stock sector relative to gold’s performance vs. cyclical assets/markets. For example, gold has risen strongly vs. the CRB index and that is a sector fundamental under valuation. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 20 June, 2019
After five long years, the gold price has finally broken through a key resistance level and is now heading towards $1,400. When the Fed announced possible rate cuts starting in July, after the market closed, the gold price shot up and continued higher during Asian trading. If gold closes above $1,400 by the end of the month, it could be setting the stage for another large bull market. Full Story
I am resuming bitcoin coverage and will treat it as nothing special, since that’s the best way to be objective when reading its charts. The one shown provided two good opportunities to get long ‘mechanically’ at 7481, so we’ll assume that its target at 10,026 will prove just as useful as a minimum upside objective. We’ll talk about buying a pullback to the red line (p=8330) if it should occur, but for now just keep in mind that ‘mechanical’ set-ups are well suited to trading vehicles that move as violently as this one. Not to get cryptocurrency fans all excited, but the weekly chart implies that 11492 will be reached and that 19850 would be in play if the lower number, a Hidden Pivot resistance, is exceeded decisively. Full Story
Monsoon has been delayed in India. A drought like situation is there in India. A bad monsoon will be bad for Indian gold demand. Rural gold will be less due to bad monsoon. Higher food price inflation due to a bad monsoon will reduce savings of the urban masses. As it India is experiencing a jobless growth. There is just hope that Modi 2.0 will start taking employment measures. Most in India expect higher income tax limits and a slew of other measure to boost consumption and growth. Implementation will be the key. Gold demand in India will be affected by monsoon progress and state measures to spruce employment. Full Story
Several factors suggest that a modest short-term correction is likely before the major breakout occurs. Gold is overbought after its recent runup and is rounding over beneath the major resistance approaching $1400, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below. Thus, the appearance of a short-term bearish “shooting star” candlestick on its chart on Friday coupled with its latest COTs showing Commercial short and Large Spec long positions hitting rather extreme levels suggests that it is likely to react back over the next week or two to allow things to cool for a bit before the major breakout occurs. Full Story
By: Chris Waltzek Ph.D., GoldSeek Radio - 16 June, 2019
- The Echo Great Recession could be more intense than the 2008 meltdown. - Corporate bonds defaults could trigger an unstoppable financial crisis. Unlike a the last financial debacle. - This time the fallout could be systemic leaving unwary investors with few places to hide especially institutions. - Peter Schiff is concerned about the debt / leverage in the residential housing market as seen in the echo housing bubble. - Given the national Case/Shiller S&P Housing index; caveat emptor notes Peter Schiff. - His chief concern remains the systemic risk in the US dollar and related paper assets. - The ideal panacea remains gold / silver and related shares as well as non-US investments as safe havens. Full Story
A headline today (Friday - June 14) on the front page of The Wall Street Journal is the most encouraging we've seen in years for gold bugs. If you've been on the sidelines, here's a trade to jump back in.
(video update / technical view on gold) Full Story
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