Gold fell close to $620 in Asia, rebounded to about $630 in London, and found decent gains near $635 in early New York trade, but then, out of nowhere, it was bombed to the downside to as low as $615.30 in late morning trade. It rebounded to the low $620s heading into the close, but was then hit again right at the close and ended back near its lows with a loss of 1.9%. Silver fell near $10.80 in Asia before it rebounded to about $11 in London and rose close to $11.25 in morning New York trade, but it was also hit in the last 2 and ˝ hours of trade and ended with a loss of 1.82%. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 21 July, 2006
Since last week when Israel decided that Hezbollah’s ongoing guerilla war against the Jewish state would no longer be tolerated, oil prices have dominated the financial news. Stories of crude oil making new all-time highs are certainly capturing the attention of investors and speculators around the world today. Full Story
By: Axel Merk, Merk Hard Currency Fund - 21 July, 2006
When Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke was President Bush’s Chief Economic Advisor, he described high oil prices as transitory. Transient they were: they headed higher, not lower. In his testimony before Congress, Bernanke now calls inflationary pressures transitory, predicting they will abate by next year. Full Story
The market back below the 60-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective is now at 620.3. The next area of resistance is around 639.6 and 649.0, while 1st support hits today at 625.3 and below there at 620.3. Full Story
It’s has been one of the most volatile week for gold this week in 2006. Overall gold traded with a weaker bias but there was some big two way movement. Full Story
Gold traded between $635 and $645 in Asia and London before it fell off in late New York trade and ended near its lows of the session with a loss of 1.62%. Silver remained near $11 in Asia and London before it rose to over $11.25 in late morning New York trade, but it also fell off into the close and ended near its lows with a loss of 0.63%. Full Story
Interest rates around the globe are going up because inflation and default risk are going up. Lenders want to be compensated for the chance they might not be repaid. When the currency seems to lose purchasing power, lenders want to recover the loss by collecting more interest, and borrowers are willing to pay it, in anticipation of even more currency depreciation. Full Story
Sprott Asset Management chief investment strategist John Embry, Scotiabank economist Patricia Mohr, CPM Group founder Jeffrey Christian, Idaho College of Mines Dean Emeritus Earl Bennett and newsletter writers David Morgan, Jason Hommel and Richard Daughty will headline Silver Summit 2006, a two-day conference focusing on silver’s opportunities Sept. 21-22 at the Coeur d’Alene Inn in scenic Coeur d’Alene, Idaho. Full Story
The market now above the 60-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Full Story
Bernanke does it again for gold and silver as well as the US dollar after he said in his semi annual testimony that the effects of past interest rates hikes are still in the pipeline and as such, do not necessitate an overly aggressive stance. Full Story
Gold remained near unchanged in Asia before falling to under $620 in London, but it then rallied to come into New York near unchanged and continued to rally throughout most of New York trade to end near its highs if the session with a gain of 2.26%. Silver remained near $10.50 in Asia and London and rallied throughout trade in New York to end near its high over $11 with a gain of 6.05%. Full Story
When gold (and most commodities) came crashing down recently from a high of $730 to $540 in just a few weeks time many experts declared the end of the precious metals (and commodity) bull run. But based on what? What’s the sense of declaring the end of a 4 year bull run which followed a 20+ year bear run. Believe it or not but commodities are dirt cheap these days no matter what the ‘experts’ want you to believe. Full Story
The market back below the 60-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Momentum studies trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce lower price action. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Full Story
Gold and silver had a technical knock out as gold fell $27.20 and silver fell $0.74 in a single day. Gold August future fell to a low of $628.30 while silver September future fell to a low of $1051 in Asian trade. The US dollar gained after the PPI numbers showed that the Fed will raise interest rates in August. Full Story
Gold fell near $640 in after hours Access trade late yesterday, rose above $650 in Asia, traded between $645 and $650 in London, and found slight gains above $650 in early New York trade, but it then fell off markedly throughout the rest of trade in New York and ended at its lows of the session with a loss of 3.46%. Silver traded in a tight range on either side of $11.00 in Asia and London, but it also fell off throughout trade in New York and ended at its low of the session with a loss of 5.36%. Full Story
I hope that the sell-off in the metals made you think about the way you perceive gold and silver as investments This wasn’t just a correction, this was a slaughter by the paper short sharks who call themselves commercials. Mr. Butler wrote to the authorities in detail and asked why these so-called commercials can break the law. But up to now, he has not received any answers. I am in the camp that believes you can’t change the paper market to be honest. But that doesn’t mean you can’t do anything about it, because you can. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 18 July, 2006
In many cases the error is one of definition in that the person thinks of deflation as a fall in the general price level. But although falling prices are an effect of deflation, when prices fall it is usually for some reason totally unrelated to deflation (for the uninitiated, deflation is a prolonged contraction in the total supply of money and credit). In fact, over the past 50 years not a single price has fallen in the US due to deflation because the total supply of money and credit has been in a relentless upward trend. Full Story
Energy and precious metals markets are unlikely to be fooled about this for long, even if yesterday’s respite from selling seemed more like an recovered gasp than a sigh of relief. I put out a bulletin on gold Sunday night because it looked like the August Comex contract was about to blow past the 677.50 rally target I’d touted on Friday. Turns out I needn’t have alarmed you, since that is precisely where the futures peaked, to-the-tick: 677.50. The drop from that high was a rather nasty affair, producing a low of 642.00 within mere hours. Full Story
Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The near-term upside objective is at 672.4. The next area of resistance is around 661.3 and 672.4, while 1st support hits today at 642.5 and below there at 634.9. Full Story
Gold rose to over $675 by late Asian trade, but it then fell off throughout trade in London and continued to drop in New York to as low as $645.10 before it rebounded a bit into the close to end back above $650. Silver rose to about $11.75 by late trade in Asia, but it then fell off throughout most of trade in London and New York and ended near its lows with a loss of 4.10%. At the time of writing, both metals are also trading in Access trade with over 1% additional losses from the day’s close. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor – Global Money Trends newsletter - 17 July, 2006
Since withdrawing its troops from Southern Lebanon six years ago, Israel has carefully watched Iranian backed Hizbollah guerillas plant landmines and booby traps along their common border, and then stockpile about 12,000 katushya rockets, with ranges up to 100 km (60 miles), aimed at Israel’s northern frontier. Until July 12th, the prevailing view in Jerusalem was that Hizbollah would hold its fire, unless a wider war in the Middle East broke out over Iran’s clandestine nuclear program. Full Story
Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. If yesterday's gap higher on the day session chart holds, additional buying could develop this session. Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market's posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the session. The next upside target is 673.7. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 671.5 and 673.7, while 1st support hits today at 664.5 and below there at 659.8. Full Story
Gold is headed for $800, silver for $1650, crude oil over $100 a barrel and the US dollar could get smashed over the coming weeks IF tensions between Israel and Hezbollah militant escalate further. Full Story
After struggling recently under the weight of resistance, several major stock market averages closed at or near lows for the week on Friday, July 14. This poor performance underscores the pressure that the 4-year/8-year market cycle is bringing to the broad market and should be the prime market consideration for the next 6 weeks. We’ll examine the potential impact of this important market cycle in this commentary. Full Story
Gold rose over $10 to about $665 in Access trade late yesterday before it fell back off a bit to trade near $660 in Asia and London, but it then added to its gains in New York and closed near its high of the session with a gain of 2.11%. Silver rose to over $11.60 in Access trade late yesterday and traded between $11.60 and $11.70 in Asia and London, but it then fell off throughout most of trade in New York and ended near its lows with only a slight gain. Full Story
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