Gold traded in a tight range between $618 and $620 for most of world trade and ended near the top of that range with a slight gain of 0.24%. Silver traded about 5-10 cents higher in Asia and London before it added to its gains in New York and ended near its highs with a gain of 1.46%. Full Story
By: David Chapman, Union Securities - 22 December, 2006
Offering an annual forecast has to be one of the biggest mug’s games on both Wall Street and Bay Street. That doesn’t prevent many from trying. At least nobody claims to have a crystal ball or mystic powers. We certainly don’t. But if there is one thing we have learned about technical analysis, it is that patterns repeat themselves. And that forms the essence of our forecasts. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 22 December, 2006
In this frenetic world of ours, we spend most of our time trapped under the tyranny of the present. The urgent preempts the important and life is a mad dash from one activity to the next with little opportunity for reflection. But in this season when one year is yielding to the next, all of a sudden the past and future return to focus. Full Story
It's that time of year again, when economists, market strategists and pundits all come out with their market predictions, outlooks and forecasts for the New Year. These should more accurately be called guesses, since the future is inherently unknowable, and most of the forecasts are notoriously and invariably wrong. But they are fun to read nonetheless, and hearing a variety of opinions helps you make up your own mind. Full Story
Not even Quantum Finance will stop the markets rediscovering risk in 2007, we guess. Cheap money could only ever get cheaper in this bubble, just as in all other bubbles. Higher rates would unwind the leverage, yet the leverage has now gone as high as it can with Dollar rates at just 5.25%. And the search for yield, when it blows up, will become a scramble for settlement...a rush into anything offering simple ownership over complexity, real value instead of gearing. Full Story
Don't we all wish we could know what we know today but bring that information back in time and then really clean up? Well, we can't, but for the purposes of this analysis the next best thing is a combination of history, logic, simple math and of course, charts. Now that Stockcharts.com is finally back up and running, I got right down to hitting the ratio charts after the impulsive reversal in the Gold-Silver ratio. Full Story
Silver and copper are getting hammered with copper at its six month low. Copper’s technical picture is not very good and comex copper march needs to hold key long term support at $254.40 on closing basis to be in long term bear trend else the dip will provide yet another investment opportunity. Full Story
Gold rose slightly in Asia and London and traded near unchanged for most of trade in New York, but it then dipped a couple dollars in the last hour of trade and ended near its lows with a loss of 0.39%. Silver followed a similar pattern and ended with a loss of 1.36%. Full Story
Gold had a tough go of it last week, falling $11.90 for a loss of –1.89%. Most of the hit incurred on Friday, when gold fell $11.80 an ounce. Below is the daily chart of gold, which focuses on the short term trend - but also shows the intermediate term as well. Full Story
That there could be a coming boom in mining investments in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Oman) may seem to be an odd idea to many observers. We had a boom in local stocks and still have one in oil and real estate, but mining? Full Story
Just like always, silver is universally considered to be less valuable than gold. There is no need for people to ask about how much of either is available for investment or use, because silver has always had plentiful supply while gold was scarce. Everyone knows that means silver must be much less expensive than gold, so sure enough, silver is much less expensive. Full Story
The average volatility in gold and silver in 2007 should increase from that in 2006. Gold has traded in intra day range of $10-$11 while silver had an intra day trading range in $25-$30 range in 2006. Full Story
Gold rose slightly in Asia and traded a few dollars higher near $624 in London before it fell in morning new York trade to as lows as $618.60 at one point, but it then rebounded a bit into the close and ended with a loss of just 0.11%. Silver traded above $12.70 in London before it fell to as low as $12.43 in New York, but it also rebounded a bit into the close and ended with a loss of 0.56%. Full Story
Let's see where we are since our last posting two days ago on the G/S Ratio on SilverSeek. We were looking for a Fib pullback to 1.98. In Fib terms that's a 62% pullback. It's gone to as low as 2.008 as you can see on the Daily chart on the left below. Note that the same indicators are still in transitional mode territory, i.e., below their threshold baselines. Recall that we must see the Wm%R peek above -80, a black-over-red line crossover for the SlowSTO, and the MACD vertical bars turn up. None of these have occurred...yet. Full Story
The contradictions running wild today have rarely been more acute. To be sure, and depending on the source, the U.S. economy is supposedly already in recession, stocks are in a great new bull market, China is about to dump greenbacks for gold, and the commodities bull is dead but will last another 30-years. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster – Global Watch - 20 December, 2006
As the continued deficit continues to command somewhat myopic attention [it was less than expected but still around $60 billion a month], we do well to look at the impact on confidence in the unit as the Trade deficit rolls on month after month year after year. Full Story
Gold, unless the world changes materially in the remaining few trading days, will produce higher returns in 2006 than either the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ Composite. Two years in a row Gold will have performed better than paper equities. Why? Investors, around the world, have had a growing preference for Gold over paper equities. The reason that investors have been moving from their national monies to Gold, moneyization, the past few years is really simple. Governments and central bankers simply do not, in general, think that maintaining the value of money is important. Maintaining political power is more important to them. Investors therefore have two choices, Gold or guillotines. Full Story
Fund managers ducked market sentiment by selling silver this week as the markets were expecting a correction after Christmas. Gold and silver continued to be dictated by technical factors and the US dollar. Full Story
Gold rose about a dollar is Asia and London before it dipped to unchanged in early New York trade, but it soon rebounded, rose for the rest of trade, and ended near its highs with a gain of 1.02%. Silver rose about 20 cents in Asia before it fell back off in London and traded about 10 cents lower near $12.30 in early New York trade, but it also rebounded higher for the rest of trade and ended near its highs with a gain of 1.53%. Full Story
By: James Cook & Theodore Butler - 19 December, 2006
Theodore (Ted) Butler must certainly be the foremost silver analyst of our time. Not only is he a pioneering thinker on the subject of silver, he is also way ahead of the curve with what’s happening in the silver market. Many of his ideas are original and new. It’s no exaggeration to say that almost everything you see other people write about silver today comes from Ted Butler. Full Story
In light of TradeTech’s December 15th announcement of the largest percentage increase of the weekly spot uranium price in history, the brewing kettle of some 300-plus uranium companies could quickly boil over. Multiple uranium buyers offered more than $70/pound for a modest amount of uranium oxide [U3O8] auctioned by Mestena LLC. The 260,000 pounds of Texas uranium, probably produced for about $30/pound through the in situ recovery mining method, might return the privately held uranium company nearly $11 million in operating profits. Full Story
By: Gold and Silver Investments Limited - 19 December, 2006
Gold Investments remain bullish on both gold and particularly silver and are confident that, as we have continually pointed out, they are now both in multi year bull markets. We believe gold will surpass its non inflation adjusted high of $850 per ounce in 2007 and its inflation adjusted high of some $2,400 per ounce in the next 10 years. Full Story
The real currency story in recent months is the euro-yen cross, and not so much the euro-dollar headline breakout. In Japanese yen terms, the euro is on a tear. Aiding the euro is significant Asian diversification away from the USDollar by their central banks. The Arabs also are diversifying, as much into the pound sterling as the euro. Full Story
The real currency story in recent months is the euro-yen cross, and not so much the euro-dollar headline breakout. In Japanese yen terms, the euro is on a tear. Aiding the euro is significant Asian diversification away from the USDollar by their central banks. The Arabs also are diversifying, as much into the pound sterling as the euro. Full Story
The real currency story in recent months is the euro-yen cross, and not so much the euro-dollar headline breakout. In Japanese yen terms, the euro is on a tear. Aiding the euro is significant Asian diversification away from the USDollar by their central banks. The Arabs also are diversifying, as much into the pound sterling as the euro. Full Story
With both Bernanke and Paulson heading to China soon, one should definitely not be surprised if the dollar ($) bounces higher in coming days considering they will want to make it appear the world likes a close relationship with the States. And let’s face it, we are talking about the China connection here, the one with America that keeps the global debt bubble afloat, which in turn feeds all the assets bubbles, making it the cornerstone of the ‘globalization model’ bankers around the world envision as our destiny. Full Story
As nearly all of you know when the precious metals do their dosey-dos, silver does the steeper swan dive off the high board. As a consequence of silver being more volatile than gold, you can now get more silver for your gold. But, who wants to do that if they're both declining in dollar terms? We spend dollars, but unlike the 19th century speculators we can't do the switch and then take our additional ounce booty to market and buy things. If you're retired like me, my spending dollars have to come out of my IRA, and with the inflation demon raging I need more of them with each withdrawal. Full Story
Silver is lived upto its reputation as it fell for the second continuous day buy still closed over its key short term support of $1252 to ensure that the short term bullish trend is intact while gold managed to hold the 200 day MA. Full Story
Gold traded slightly higher in Asia and London before it dipped a few dollars in morning New York trade to as low as $611.30 at about 11AM EST, but it then rallied into the close and ended with a small gain. Silver also traded slightly higher in Asia and London before it fell in New York, but its drop was much more severe than gold’s. It fell to as low as $12.26 before it rallied a bit off its lows in the last hour of trade, but it still ended with a loss of 3.20%. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 18 December, 2006
After being pegged at a constant rate against the US$ for many years China's currency (the Yuan) has, over the past year or so, moved relentlessly higher against its US counterpart. This strength has gone a long way towards quieting the US politicians who were previously pointing to the US's large and growing trade deficit with China as evidence that China was achieving an unfair trade advantage by holding its currency at an unreasonably low level. Full Story
So in summary, while there is reason to get upset with the gold cartel for their nefarious deeds, we should also be thanking them for making gold as cheap and undervalued as it is. They are enabling us to dump our overvalued dollars as we earn them each month by using them to buy undervalued physical gold. We are in effect getting more gold for our dollars, and that is indeed a pleasant situation. Full Story
If it took an average monthly yield of over 14% to rein-in gold back in 1980, what do you think the rate will have to go to this time? Using Tom's trusty inflation calculator (government CPI) we see that for 1980 what once cost $800 (gold), now in 2006 would cost us $2,154. Full Story
Firstly, What is the VIX ? This is an index of implied volatility of the Chicago Board Options on the S&P 500 stock index, The exchange calculates the implied volatility of eight at-the-money or near-the-money strikes (both puts and calls) with a weighted average time to maturity of 30 days. Basically the VIX is a measure of fear in the market. It rises when investors are fearful, as more options are bought, and falls when investors feel less fearful, so buy less options to manage their stock market risk. Full Story
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