By: Adam Hamilton, CPA, Zeal Research - 22 February, 2019
The best gains in today’s mounting gold-stock upleg are likely still yet to come. While you can play it in GDX, the major gold miners dominating this ETF are really struggling to grow their production. And that problem is even worse in the newly-merged super-majors, further retarding GDX’s performance. So the best gains will be won in smaller gold miners with superior fundamentals that are still expanding their outputs.
The earlier you get deployed, the greater your gains will be. That’s why the trading books in our popular weekly and monthly newsletters are currently full of better gold and silver miners mostly added in recent months. The gains we won in 2016 were amazing the last time American stock investors returned to gold. Our newsletter stock trades that year averaged +111.0% and +89.7% annualized realized gains respectively! Full Story
By: Chris Waltzek, GoldSeek Radio - 22 February, 2019
- Mr. Pento graciously outlines his current portfolio-strategy in detail for the listening audience. - One of the few economic pundits to correctly anticipate the market plunge of 2018 on record. - Gold and utilities remain favorite long positions, while he is comfortable with a short position in long-term Treasuries. - Mr. Pento crushes the opposition on the trade war debate. - The Administration's tax increases on imports have actually boosted domestic GDP, contrary to popular consensus. - Only if the proposed 15% increase in new tariffs on China remains in full effect for a year will GDP suffer. - Meanwhile, global central banks printed roughly $15 trillion in debt IOUs while plunging real interest rates negative for the first time in recorded history, just to salvage the financial markets from the Great Recession. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 22 February, 2019
By treating Thursday’s moderate selloff as the potential start of something big, we risk little. Even if the broad averages were to move somewhat higher, drawn magnetically toward October’s record peaks, that would only heighten our skittishness about bulls’ heedless climb up a wall of worry that looks primed to collapse. Full Story
Global banking system will also see a significant change. More and more localized banking system (away from USA controlled SWIFT system) will come up. In some cases they will be backed by gold. Right now any nations banking system can collapse if USA wants as it based on SWIFT. Reduced dependence on SWIFT banking system in global trade should also be bullish for gold. Full Story
So, I am going to let you in on a little secret at this time. If you want to know what is going to happen in the metals complex, it is not the central banks buying you want to watch. Right now, I would be watching Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) very closely. As long as it remains below 34.29, it still has potential to strike lower lows below those seen in 2018. However, should you see it break out over that level, it will confirm for me that a bottom has been struck, and we are on the verge of a strong rally about to take hold in the complex. Full Story
By: Ross Norman, Sharps Pixley - 21 February, 2019
Gold’s relative strength indicator is at the 73, highest since September 2011 - the month that gold hit an all-time high.
This may suggest that gold is technically “overbought” just now, but it is also at a level we saw regularly back in the early 2000’s when gold was starting a bull run with a 16% year on year increase, well before the Global Financial Crisis.
There have been a few signals that echo the early stages of that bull run - including the stealth rally in gold in non-dollar currencies, but perhaps most encouragingly is news that central bank gold buying is at the highest since 1967. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 21 February, 2019
AAPL, not long ago the one true love of fund managers, has been a conspicuous laggard since the broad averages trampolined off December’s lows. It is only in retrospect that we can see how they might have contrived, albeit with only modest success, to ignore the stock’s big problem, which is that the company’s ridiculously overpriced phones are poorly positioned to compete against increasingly aggressive Asian manufacturers. Full Story
Below is the weekly chart for the GDXJ which shows all systems go.
I will be out of the office this afternoon and probably won’t make it back before the close. It’s been a long time coming so enjoy this day as there will be many more to come. It’s just getting started. Full Story
I am not concerned over the rise in gold prices. I was bullish on gold, I am bullish on gold and I will remain bullish on gold. There will be corrections in gold prices. It will not be a one way traffic. Full Story
China, the number one consumer of gold, added to its gold reserves for the second month in a row after a two-year dry spell. The People’s Bank of China increased its holdings to 59.94 million ounces in January, up from 59.56 in December. Russia’s gold output in 2018 rose 2.5 percent year-over-year to 314.42 tons, while silver production grew 7.2 percent to 1,119.95 tons. Russia is also taking steps to make gold investing accessible to more people. According to Bloomberg, the government is considering opening the precious metals market participation by allowing retail investors to buy bullion for their individual investment accounts. Full Story
Now, when you consider that these Fibonacci timing cycles often have a margin of error of 1-2 years, we have some very interesting confluence for a major market top between the years 2021-23, with the 13 year Fibonacci cycle off the 2009 lows landing right in the middle at 2022. And, once we are nearing completion of a 5-wave structure into that time frame, I think it would be prudent for investors to begin to cash in their chips in preparation for what I expect to be a multi-year, and potentially a multi-decade, bear market. Full Story
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 19 February, 2019
The reason for that is the “citizen wealth effect” created by the relentless rise of China and India. These gold-oriented nations are well on their way to becoming the most gargantuan economic empires in the history of the world.
It’s simple mathematics: There are eight Chindians for every American, and about half of the Chindians are under the age of 35.
It’s an unstoppable force that I refer to as, “The Gold Bull Era”. Full Story
Gold reached a low of 1305.30 this past week, but by the end of week we had moved higher to close in the 1324.80 area.
We also had a key weekly reversal higher which is bullish and suggests higher prices are coming in the short term!
We updated our count this week to a more bullish count that is suggesting that all of wave ?iii? of !iii! ended at the 1331.10 high and that we were correcting in wave ?iv?, which is likely now complete at the 1305.30 low. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA - 19 February, 2019
The short-term trend is healthy and this historical comparison is table-pounding bullish. We’ve been increasing our exposure and will continue to do so. Plenty of great values remain and there is time to position yourself to take advantage. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 19 February, 2019
The Dow sits just inches from a 25,998 target we’ve used to stay comfortably with-the-flow, even as the trend has seemingly flouted sanity itself. At the target, the Indoos will have exceeded an important ‘external’ peak at 25,980, but also lie within easy distance of an even more important peak at 26,277 made three weeks earlier. Speaking as a hard-core permabear who has learned to tune out gut feelings so that the charts can speak for themselves, your editor will mention a 28,110 Hidden Pivot that would become a logical minimum objective once the Dow has conquered the obstacles noted above. That would put it nearly 9% above current levels and 30% above the 21,712 nadir recorded in the final days of 2018. Full Story
China has been increasing gold reserves as a buffer to blackmail by USA and its allies on the global trade war front. Yesterday someone posted on Twitter that bank of England does not reveal the audit of gold reserves. There is no accountability of the Australian gold reserves held with the bank of England. Full Story
Gold has been turned back so many times in recent years from the strong resistance approaching the $1400 level, that most investors have now been well trained, like Pavlov’s dog, to expect it like clockwork, and as we know, it is just when this mindset prevails that gold is likely to surprise the majority by actually breaking out above this level. Full Story
Starting with the 10-year chart we see that the giant base pattern in silver appears to be taking the form of a Double Bottom, instead of the complex Head-and-Shoulders bottom that we saw in gold. Silver certainly looks weaker than gold here and is still quite a long way from breaking out of its base pattern, and it will take a break above $22 to finally break clear out of it. Full Story
The trend over the next four weeks in gold and silver could be the trend for the rest of the year. In Asia, local currency price moves will be a far bigger factor (than gold in US dollar) over other themes. Winner will be the ones who are correctly able to determine to trend of the local currency trend. It is not easy to determine the long term trend of Indian rupee as we have an election. Indian rupee will be vulnerable to energy price swings. India also has a massive unhedged foreign exchange corporate debt. Pluses for the Indian economy include an ever growing youth population and a falling savings rate. Full Story
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