Yield curve inversion on the treasury bond markets, market issuing warning signs. Gold gained on the day as the stock market went down. People ran to safe havens (video update). Full Story
The chart shows a ‘secondary pivot’ at 3005.63 that can serve for now as a minimum upside objective. Just to be on record with the most-bullish-forecast-by-permabear, I’ll also mention the 3235.25 ‘D’ target of the pattern as a possibility. It would become an odds-on bet to be reached if the futures close for two consecutive weekly bars above 3005. These numbers are not as precise as I would prefer, since the chart is stitched together from many contract months. But the targets should be close enough for us to get a confident read on trend strength if and when they are hit. Full Story
With the UUP ( US Dollar ETF) having a fairly large decline today lets update a few charts to see how they’ve been progressing. Back in August of last year the UUP began to build out a rising wedge formation with today’s price action completing the fourth reversal point when the UUP traded down to the bottom trendline. Sometimes when a stock fails to touch the top rail in a well defined pattern like the rising wedge the UUP is showing, it can be a warning sign that the energy just isn’t there and the stock has run out of gas. To complete the rising wedge we need to see the bottom rail give way which should usher in a strong move for the PM complex and I would think commodities in general. Full Story
By: Chris Waltzek, GoldSeek Radio - 21 March, 2019
Our guest outlines proprietary market model entries / exits including gold that could eventually ascend to $2,500 Adding support for the bullish case for PMs / commodities, the Euro could remain strong relative to the Greenback. Years ending in the number 7 oftentimes lead to key weakness in the NYSE, such as the Crash of 1987, market-flu of 1997. The Nenner model anticipates the final low to unfold in 2020, despite one of the most impressive share rallies in US history. Full Story
Stocks whoopee-cushioned on word from the Fed that tightening is unlikely for the remainder of the year. “Interest rate increases could be on hold indefinitely,” Powell said. “It may be some time before the outlook for jobs and inflation calls clearly for a change in policy.” Although the stock market’s obligatory headless-chicken dance ended with the broad averages largely unchanged, it’s surprising and not a little disappointing that shares didn’t get more lift from the announcement. Some observers had expected the central bank to feint toward tightening.. Full Story
Add in the fact that the Fed on Wednesday is expected to mumble something dovish, and you have a perfect storm of bullish deceptions. If you’re a contrarian and a pessimist, the set-up looks irresistible. However, a very important caveat must be added: If the futures blow past the 2858.75 target in just a few days after having taken ten weeks to reach it, bears had better dive for cover, since that would be signaling more upside to at least 3,000 for the S&Ps and a further thousand-point rally in the Dow. Full Story
The smart money undoubtedly is waiting for “news” from this week’s FOMC meeting to help trigger a short squeeze worthy of the name. However, the requisite but increasingly moronic-sounding story — that the Fed sees “no strong reason” to tighten “right away” — has been rehashed so many times over the last couple of months that it has become as stale as a sitcom laugh track. Each time this supposed news is rehashed, the wording is adjusted slightly so that it sounds as though the Fed has budged another millimeter or two in the direction of easing (or, perhaps, of ‘not-tightening’). Full Story
The region between $1290-$1310 is a very dangerous zone for day traders. Right now gold is bullish and looks headed for $1330+. Trend (after FOMC) in gold and silver n Thursday and Friday is the key. There will be buyers on dips and short covering if gold and silver rise on the latter half of the week. Brexit is still in a limbo. China buying more farm products from USA as a part of the trade talks will not add to job creation in USA. Traders and global investment community is focused in Nonfarm payrolls and not Farm payrolls of USA. Full Story
The gold price increase could be stymied by positive data, according to Tapan Patel, senior analyst at India’s most valuable bank, HDFC Bank. Patel said “things look to be settling down” and that “we can expect the risk appetite to come down and see investors shifting to the dollar from gold.” The bank forecasts that gold will trade between $1,240 and $1,380 an ounce this year. Full Story
I believe the long period of consolidation in the precious metals sector is finally ending. While there’s always the possibility that it could drag on longer, the risk/reward for investing in the juniors right now is as highly skewed toward “reward,” as it was in 2001 and 2008. The market will not go straight up and there will be some gut-wrenching, manipulated sell-offs. But I believe patience will be rewarded. This means not going “all-in” all at once but wading in slowly over time. Full Story
Many investors maintain beliefs about the stock market which often have them looking the wrong way at the market turns. In fact, I can no longer count how many comments I see about how the Fed is what directs our stock market action, and it just makes me scratch my head.
The main argument by Fed watchers is that the Fed’s easy money drives the stock market. Yet, the Fed's balance sheet peaked at $4.52 trillion in January of 2015 and is down over 12% from that peak. Yet, the stock market has added over 40% since the Fed’s balance sheet peaked. Remember how often we were told by the Fed watchers that a shrinking Fed balance sheet would lead to a stock market crash? Well, it certainly did, but not in the direction most expected.
But, the stock market is clearly not going to top based upon the Fed’s balance sheet... Full Story
The broad averages have rallied from their Christmas lows almost as steeply as they got there in the fourth quarter. The first 2,000 points of the Dow’s trampoline bounce took just seven trading days. At the time, we wrote that the trend would continue until even hardcore skeptics were convinced that new all-time highs were likely. That is what bear rallies are supposed to do. Well, another 1100 points and we’ll be there, but that still wouldn’t persuade us that this rally is the real deal and not just a bull trap. Full Story
Black swans. An unpredictable event. They happen with surprising frequency. And stock markets react. We take a look at events over the past 50 years and how black swans sparked stock market swoons. We also attempt to see where one might come from this time around.
Our recession watch spread inched lower but still no signs of an impending recession despite a global slowing. Our chart of the week looks at the clash between OPEC and NOPEC.
It was a good week for the stock markets but the end of the week was punctuated by the shooting in New Zealand. These shocking events seem to happen with some frequency and they too could be black swans. Our hearts go out to the victims of this heinous cowardly act. Full Story
By: Chris Waltzek, GoldSeek Radio - 17 March, 2019
- Financial history may not repeat but it certainly harmonizes, as seen in a review of modern monetary operations. - John Law's Mississippi Scheme involved epic monetary expansion, where approximately 7 printing presses. - The mania remains the textbook schematics of today's global financial bubble. - Another comparable example, the Railroad Stock Financial Panic of 1873 echoes today in over-leveraged products. Dovish monetary policy over stimulated economic conditions, culminating in the now infamous 1929 market peak / crash. Full Story
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