Here’s hoping that normalizing commodity prices in gold, silver, zinc, and other metals will help spur mergers and acquisitions in the sector. Perhaps today’s zombies can have their assets “brought to life” on the balance sheets of healthier companies. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 22 April, 2016
The gold price is following the euro at the moment with little action in the U.S. gold ETFs. When the physical action is small dealers will move prices in the opposite direction to the dollar. With today being Friday and gold now at the bottom of its latest trading range, sitting on support today may well be lively. Full Story
And the strength of the rally in gold has convinced many that this time is different. Too many analysts are now expecting only a sideways correction in gold or a very mild intermediate degree correction. This is absurd. The dollar hasn’t even rallied yet. How in the world can one predict that gold will just trade sideways before the dollar even delivers its rally? Full Story
The gold price is set to move higher in the coming months according to new research from RBC.
“Analysis suggests a -0.5% real rate would imply a $1,380/oz gold price and a -1.0% real rate $1,546/oz” — that’s according to RBC’s April 10 Global Gold Outlook note, which takes a look at how lower real interest rates, coupled with a dovish Fed will impact the gold price. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 21 April, 2016
The gold price is breaking through overhead resistance solidly on a daily basis. This is remarkable in the light of ‘stale’ bull selling. As you can see below the last two days has seen significant sales from the SPDR gold ETF, but this has not dented the price rise, implying that there is considerable underlying strength in the gold price. At the moment this is not due to a weak dollar as the dollar is stronger today. Full Story
Even though gold has taken center stage today due to Chinese rolling out there new Yuan Gold fix, something quite interesting has been taking place in the silver market over the past six months. While Comex silver inventories have been declining from a peak of 184 million oz (Moz) in July 2015 to 154 Moz today, silver stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been doing the exact opposite. And in a BIG WAY! Full Story
The citizens of Japan are the world’s largest creditors, but their government is one of the world’s largest debtors. The debtors refuse to reduce debt and are engaging in reckless fiscal policy. This may be creating a situation where the next major rally in the dollar against the yen is not a risk-on signal for global stock markets, but a buy signal for gold! Full Story
In mid January of this year it looked as if another leg down was in store for the precious metals complex. Most of the precious metals stock indexes broke down to a new bear market low which I was expecting, as I was looking for that one last capitulation move to shake out the last of the bulls. There was a pretty symmetrical H&S consolidation pattern that had developed at the lows going back to August of last year. The setup looked perfect for one last move down to end the bear market but that didn’t happen. Instead we got a two day shakeout below the previous low which ended exactly three months ago today. Full Story
China launched yuan denominated gold bullion trading today in a move that will further boost its power in the global gold and fx markets. Critics of the existing pricing mechanisms hope that it will lead to increased transparency and may end price manipulation. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 19 April, 2016
Members include Chinese banks, jewelers, miners and the local units of Standard Chartered Plc and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. It is convincing that the first Shanghai Gold Fix was in line with the London prices. We do expect divergences in time, but for now both are on the same page. We have no doubt that when these divergences appear, they will be because China decides they will. Full Story
Just to be clear then, what we got in the first quarter was a buy signal in gold, the shares, and key ratios; highly suggestive the bull market is back on. All we need is for silver to join the party in this regard, and we are off to the races. Further to this, and unfortunately for everybody, it appears this buy signal is not a result of political instability, or the threat of war, or any other result of the general state of debasement the ‘powers that be’ subject us to, but the result of anticipated currency debasement, the old standard. That’s the only conclusion one can to given the pictures (charts) below. That’s what we are going to do this week – go through these six charts because they confirm this thinking. The delayed positive reaction in the equity complex to Yellen’s comments Tuesday was the tell, boosted by the insanity over at the ECB as well. Full Story
Well that was interesting. Gold went down over thirty bucks and silver went up over thirty cents. How much longer can this silver rally continue in the face of gold’s nonparticipation? Will speculators really be comfortable bidding silver up to $20 while gold sits at $1200? Do the fundamentals support a higher silver price?
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 18 April, 2016
Gold ETFs - We saw more large purchases of 5,647 tonnes, after last week’s big sales of over 8 tonnes, of gold into the SPDR gold ETF but nothing in or out of the Gold Trust on Friday. This leaves their holdings at 812.462 and 188.04 tonnes in the SPDR & Gold Trust respectively. These purchases were well placed to take advantage of what we expect later this week in the gold price. Full Story
A gold correction is coming. As long as you aren’t holding Old Turkey (see below) then the correct strategy is to wait patiently for gold to produce the next intermediate cycle low. Buying now is too risky, and it forces one to time a perfect top. Full Story
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