Gold fell $13.18 to $1319.92 by late morning in New York before it bounced back higher into the close, but is still ended with a loss of 0.72%. Silver slipped to as low as $19.562 and ended with a loss of 1.06%. Full Story
Since hitting its high of over $1,900 an ounce in 2011 after a 12 year bull run, gold fell steadily until 2015 when it reached a low near $1,000. However, this year alone we have seen a 25% increase in the yellow metal. It hit a high of $1,370 pre-Brexit and while this new bull run seems to be currently taking a breather, many analysts feel that there is still plenty of steam left in this rally. Full Story
Gold dipped $3 to $1310.80 in early Asian trade before it bounced back to $1323.24 in London and then fell back to almost unchanged at about 9:30AM EST, but it then rallied back higher for most of the rest of trade and ended near its last minute high of $1333.82 with a gain of 1.47%. Silver rose to as high as $19.872 and ended with a gain of 2.43%. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 21 July, 2016
With today’s European Central Bank meeting likely to have an effect on exchange rates and the gold price the prospect of more easing becomes important. But as with the Bank of Japan’s failure to move of late [saying ‘helicopter money’ is off the table], so the E.C.B. finds itself in a position where it is extremely limited in what it can do now or in the future. Lending is timid, so stimuli are not bearing fruit! Full Story
Just as the dust begins to settle on Brexit, Italy’s banking system looms as the next threat to global financial markets. Previous attempts to resolve Italy’s banking sector woes have proven to be less than effective. Non Performing Loans on the balance sheets of Italian banks represent over 8% of the total loan portfolios. However some analyst fear that this is set to grow to a whopping 15% in the near future. Full Story
The key reason why gold and silver are falling is that the UK has deferred exit from the European Union to next year. The focus of investors has now once again shifted to US economic progress and US interest rate hikes. There is speculation that there will be a December interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Fundamentally also gold and silver are weak due to lack of demand in Asia. Full Story
Something BIG happened in the gold market this year and very few investors understand the significance. While precious metal analysts debate whether the huge gold rally since the beginning of the year is sustainable, I am beginning to wonder if certain indicators are no longer reliable. Full Story
Bloomberg reports that they have revised their original 3.2% forecast down to 3.1% for 2016 and from 3.5% to 3.4% for 2017. While these feel like very modest revisions ,the IMF would not be known for radical changes of direction preferring slow and steady revisions. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 20 July, 2016
With tomorrow’s European Central Bank meeting gold and silver prices are trying to mark time in a poor Technical environment.
Most expect the E.C.B. to do nothing, but the pressure is mounting heavily for more easing. The euro remains relatively strong and the economic outlook for the E.U. remains tilted to the downside. The potential for a recession is there. So something must be done. Full Story
I’m just waiting for the euro to confirm a final intermediate cycle bottom. It’s now very late in the timing band at 33 weeks. So the bottom could occur at any time. My best guess is the euro will bottom and the dollar will top on, or the day before, the FOMC meeting next week. Full Story
Having increased by 25% since the beginning of the year the pause in its rally comes as Barnabas Gan, an economist at Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp observes that “Market risk-on sentiment seems to have gone back” on the table, as reported by Bloomberg today. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 19 July, 2016
We should not take our eyes off the hefty wave of deflation flowing over the world from early in this century until now and should continue to do so for the next decade. But we do not expect the period ahead to be a calm period of low interest rates alone. The pressures that come with it have been seen in 2008 and thereafter, with similar destructive crises springing up on the way through the next decade. Full Story
Looks like we may get that two-day close in gold over $1325 today. And if silver can close over $20, well, the monthly chart will turn bullish not only because of what is discussed above, but also you will remember from here (see Figure 3), that RSI will break back into the growth channel. It’s not only done this but also tested the breakout and is now powering higher. So if both gold and silver can hang onto gains this week – this would be very bullish even if the next is not so good going into ETF options expiry. Word is it’s the European banks and Chinese buying causing the surge in the metals, especially in the absence of US traders here on July 4th, however in the end it will ultimately be a crashing $ and loss of empire, and the various wars required to get there – no? Full Story
“Gold is the unprintable currency, unlike the yen,” said Itsuo Toshima, former regional manager for the World Gold Council in Tokyo. According to Bloomberg News, Abenomics skeptics are selling the yen to buy this unprintable currency – gold. Individual investors drove a 60 percent jump in sales of the precious metal in June from May at Tanaka Holdings, the operator of Japan’s largest bullion retailer. Full Story
So what have we learned? World events are unpredictable – perhaps even more so lately. And, in bull markets some of the biggest moves happen suddenly, when people least expect it. Blink and you’ve missed it. So you just have to hang on to your convictions, and your position, even when worry sets in. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 18 July, 2016
Just as the Bank of England is waiting for more pertinent data before deciding on how much easing to put out there, so now we see the E.C.B. hesitating in the same way and for the same reason. They cannot act in the statistical darkness for fear of doing too much or too little. The bank of England is waiting until Augusts’ meetings and even then may delay further. Hindsight may tell them they waited too long or too little, but for now they would not be wise to act before seeing some light. Full Story
Fears surrounding Brexit saw gold rally to the recent highs of $1,375. However, as the uncertainty created in the wake of the “Leave” vote wanes, global equity markets have rallied, helped in no small part by surprisingly strong employment numbers from the U.S. However, some feel that the gold market retracement is only temporary and that,“the market has yet to deal with the political uncertainty going into the Nov. 8 presidential election.” Full Story
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