By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 22 September, 2006
September has been a brutal month for commodities investors. While the oil and natural gas routs have garnered most of the financial media attention, the bloodshed is much more widespread. Since September 5th gold has fallen 9.6% which has spawned a sympathetic 20.5% plunge in the HUI gold-stock index. Full Story
One of the more significant events of 2006 was the arrival on the world investment scene of Alan Greenspan’s successor – Fed Chief Ben Bernanke. He was sworn in on February 1. As financial challenges multiply, some have deemed Greenspan’s departure fortuitous. Most of the world’s economic excesses were actively encouraged under the departing Chairman’s watch. The most dangerous - and potentially most damaging - was the Fed’s encouragement of a recovery in consumption through the deliberate creation of a bubble in the housing market. Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next downside target is 579.2. The next area of resistance is around 592.4 and 595.7, while 1st support hits today at 584.2 and below there at 579.2. Full Story
Physical demand of gold in India is so strong that traders ran out of stocks over the past two days. Jewelers are buying for the upcoming month long festive season from tomorrow. Full Story
The asset class that would benefit most from slashing interest rates would be Gold. Gold will turn around swiftly as it senses a large monetary reflation is underway. We are not there yet, but this important fact ensures that the current drop in Gold and Gold Stocks will not take out the June lows and will probably be the last major correction before a multi-year Gold Bull market gets underway. Full Story
The gold market has fallen from its recent highs to find technical support just below it's 200 day moving average price at $585. Technically gold is beginning to look well again after the recent sell off. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is the lowest it's been in over a year. The weekly histograms look like they may have bottomed. The full stochastics are above their preceding decline low. And the 8-week rate-of-change (momentum), although still negative, is contracting. Gold has become oversold. Full Story
Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The daily closing price reversal up on the daily chart is somewhat positive. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next downside objective is now at 574.8. The next area of resistance is around 592.0 and 598.1, while 1st support hits today at 580.4 and below there at 574.8. Full Story
At the moment it is just fundamentals that is diving crude oil prices. I would prefer to buy some far dated call options in crude oil as well as gold and silver, as premiums are very low and long term bullishness remains intact. Full Story
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker - 20 September, 2006
Gold traded about $1 to $5 lower in Asia and London before it rose throughout morning trade in New York to find decent gains by noon, but it then fell off a bit in afternoon trade and ended with a gain of 0.55%. Silver too fell a bit in Asia and London before it rose in New York and accomplished impressive gains by noontime, but it also fell off slightly into the close and added 1.85%. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, New Era Investor - 20 September, 2006
My last article entitled “Peak Gold – Response to Critics” once again resulted in various emails on both sides of the debate as to whether global production of gold peaked back in 2001.
There was one response in particular which merits being added to the reasons given as to why the 5-year decline in global gold production is due to factors other than Peak Gold. Allow me to address it here. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 20 September, 2006
Gold stocks got pounded once again yesterday, buttressing an earlier forecast here of a further decline in December Gold futures to at least $513. We’ll continue to fish for a bottom in selected stocks as gold falls, since this can nearly always be done without risking much more than small change, However, I have my doubts that any significant turn will occur before the target is reached. Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The market's close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The next downside objective is now at 576.9. The market is approaching oversold levels on an RSI reading under 30. The next area of resistance is around 587.3 and 593.4, while 1st support hits today at 579.1 and below there at 576.9. Full Story
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker - 19 September, 2006
Gold traded mostly slightly higher in Asia and fell about $5 in London before it rebounded back near unchanged in early New York trade, but it then fell back off throughout the rest of trade in New York and made new lows on the session to close with a loss of 1.54%. Silver followed a very similar pattern and ended with a loss of 3.14%. Full Story
Due to the recent downside corrective action in the precious metal’s complex (as well as other commodities) we thought we would go back and check out the raw numbers and data to see what they may be saying.
Below we will first report on the overall action of gold and silver and the precious metal stocks as occurred last week. Following that information is some data you may find most interesting. Full Story
There is an air of panic gripping the Gold market at the present time, as the downside volatility is extremely intimidating. That said, we believe this is precisely the wrong time to panic, as prices are very likely near – in the vicinity of a major low. To be sure, we know that declines like these which comes suddenly, and rather out of the blue, can be nerve wracking and can test the psychological metal of even the strongest investors. Yet we do not believe we will see much downside action remaining from here. Full Story
Knowing and seeing the big picture is a must if we were to survive in this game. The last gold bull market began in the early 70s, and it did not go straight up either. In fact, a major correction took place between 75 & 76 which retraced about 50% of the gain before the parabolic rise to $800. A similar correction will drop gold back to the $400s before the real thing begins. Folks, an opportunity of a lifetime is ahead of us, do not let the current correction worry you. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 19 September, 2006
In any case, regardless of what happens over the next several months it's important for investors to understand that the long-term bull markets in metals and the stocks of metal producers did not end earlier this year. Long-term bull markets don't end when the major stocks in the bull-market sector have valuations that are less than half the broad market's average valuation; they end after valuations in the bull-market sector reach huge premiums. Full Story
This article answers the CFTC’s response to the articles and letters sent to them alleging manipulation in the silver market. My allegations were based upon evidence provided by the CFTC itself in its weekly Commitments of Traders Report (COT). It showed a small number of traders were short more silver than existed in world deliverable inventories and represented a concentration greater than had ever existed in any prior manipulation. This extremely large concentrated short position held on the COMEX is the necessary requirement for manipulation. Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Market positioning is positive with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next downside target is 581.0. The next area of resistance is around 597.8 and 601.1, while 1st support hits today at 587.8 and below there at 581.0. Full Story
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker - 18 September, 2006
Gold rose about $7 in Asia before it fell back near unchanged in London and early New York trade, but a sharp rally in the last 2 hours of trade left gold with a gain of 1.51% on the day. Silver rose over $10.90 in Asia before it fell to unchanged in early New York trade, but it also rallied fiercely higher in the last 2 hours of trade and ended with a gain of 4.01%. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 18 September, 2006
“A Trend in Motion will stay in motion, until some major outside force knocks it off its course.” After climbing to a 25-year high of 365.45 on May 11th, the Reuters Jefferies Commodities (CRB) Index began to show signs of fatigue in June and July, and then stumbled into a free-fall in August and September. With the CRB index slicing below its four-year upward sloping trend-line in early September, chart watchers would probably agree that a peak in the bullish cycle has been reached. Full Story
In my last Commodities Outlook , I promised to take a technical look at the stock market. Three weeks ago, there wasn't much going on and I didn't have much to say about it, but I knew we were approaching a point of clarity. That point is now here: A number of factors are converging this week that I think will lead to a substantial reversal. While I normally don't like to go out on such a limb, there are enough factors lined up this time that I think it is warranted, and if I am wrong, it should be immediately obvious. This week is do or die time for the market. Full Story
It sure has been a quite a week for gold and HUI.. Both seemed to be plunging into a deep black hole thereby scaring the hell out of many gold investors . Sure enough many inquiries came my way again from readers asking it’s time to sell since so many analysts turned bearish lately. Full Story
Meanwhile the gold market has again been hit by US selling. Have you noticed that the gold price remains stable in Far East and European trading but the moment the US market opens they hit it. This smacks of hedge fund games that are triggering computer generated stop loss levels. It certainly does not reflect true market behaviour. Full Story
Two weeks ago, I posted an article describing why I thought that silver would suffer a correction before continuing its advance to new highs. Several days later, silver failed to push through the top of its upward trending channel near $13 and sold of abruptly, taking out the $12 support at the bottom of its trend channel. Now silver is at $10.72, right where I expected it would be after the correction, near its 200 day moving average (MA) and with an RSI level in the low 30’s. In that article, I said that this would probably be an excellent time put your remaining cash into silver. So, do we jump back into silver now, or are further declines likely in the near future? Full Story
Failure of support in the $600 area has led to gold dropping back into the target zone for this move - the $560 - $580 area. It is regarded as a trading buy here for a probable trading bounce back towards the underside of the earlier support, which is now resistance, i.e. back to the $595 area, which is likely to occur within the next 2 to 3 weeks. Longer-term it is expected to back off again and dig deeper into the support zone over the next month or two, a good point for it to bottom being in the $540 - $560 zone, which should mark the completion of the corrective phase in force from May. Full Story
Silver did its duty and plunged upon breaking down below the support in the $11.75 area. This drop brought it back to the target given in the last update, at $10.50, which it fell to intraday on Friday. Over the short-term, a period of up to 3 weeks, silver is expected to bounce, possibly as high as about $11.60, this being the underside of the former support that is now resistance. Beyond that, over the next month or two, it is expected to go into retreat again and dig deeper into the current support zone, possibly dropping as low as the $9.50 - $10.00 area. This should mark the end of the corrective phase in force since May. Full Story
Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next downside target is now at 570.9. Some caution in pressing the downside is warranted with the RSI under 30. The next area of resistance is around 588.9 and 594.6, while 1st support hits today at 577.1 and below there at 570.9. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 17 September, 2006
This is yet another completely out of the box way of examining the markets and what they are doing. This viewpoint provides yet another valid reason to support our bullish out look on the intermediate time frames. We are still bearish when taking the long term view, however a lot can happen between the short, intermediate and long term time frames. If you are not properly positioned you could end up bankrupt while actually being right. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, New Era Investor - 17 September, 2006
Gold and silver are jittering around their long-term support lines just now and some investors are no doubt jittering around as well. Why is that?
The answer lies in the two “demons” of investing - Fear and Greed. When these two fellows jump on each of your shoulders, pull down an earlobe each and begin to whisper into them, strange things begin to happen. Their most lasting influence lies in bringing out the worst in investor psychology as the masses flock in to buy at the top of a market only to sell out in complete disillusionment at the bottom. We saw it with the NASDAQ as people seized by greed ploughed their life savings into stocks whose claims were as tangible as the images on their websites. Sadly, we do not expect these demons to be exorcised any time soon. Full Story
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