By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 23 June, 2006
After nearly five weeks of getting relentlessly hammered and eviscerated, it was great to see the flagship HUI unhedged gold stock index stabilize a bit this week. The HUI managed to find some support near its 200-day moving average and gave battered gold stock investors and speculators a chance to catch their breaths. Full Story
Gold started the year at $515 per ounce. Gold peaked at $725/oz on May 12th. The gold ETF (GLD) started the year with 8.5 million ounces in its vaults. On the day of gold’s peak, GLD had 11.4 million ounces. Gold has since tumbled $145/oz in 6 weeks, but curiously the assets of GLD have been rising as of late. In fact, GLD yesterday reached a new record high of ounces in the trust with over 11.7 million ounces. Full Story
The signals in Gold have been mixed, to say the least, but there have been some subtle hints lately that the correction begun nearly six weeks ago may have run its course. Earlier in the week I’d said that a print above 595.10, basis the Comex August contract, would be mildly encouraging. The Auggies did indeed surpass that number, topping at 598.30 in the wee hours yesterday. However, they have since receded with the tide -- to 582.40, a low recorded around 4 p.m. Thursday. Full Story
The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold levels, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversal down. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next upside target is 596.2. The next area of resistance is around 589.9 and 596.2, while 1st support hits today at 580.9 and below there at 578.2. Full Story
Coppers falls and takes gold and silver along with it as more and more economic numbers from US suggest that a slowdown is in the offing in the worlds largest consumer country. Full Story
Gold rose to trade between $590 and $595 in Asia, but it started to fall off in the middle of trade in London and continued to drop in New York to end near its lows with a loss of 0.94%. Silver rose to over $10.50 in Asia and traded over $10.65 in early London trade, but it also fell off throughout the rest of trade in London and New York and ended with a loss of 0.97%. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 22 June, 2006
The Gold Price has fallen 25% from its high of $731 in the last few weeks. Emerging market shares have fallen similar amounts the Yen has strengthened 8% at its best, but is now weakening with a little help from the Bank of Japan. Equity markets everywhere have performed poorly across the globe. Emerging market currencies such as the Rand have fallen nearly 20% since the beginning of the year. Full Story
Gold and the other metals fell sharply this month. But considering they’d risen so far and fast this year, it wasn’t a surprise. It’s basically a normal bump in the road and despite this decline, gold’s still looking good. Full Story
Rising from oversold levels, daily momentum studies would support higher prices, especially on a close above resistance. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market has a bullish tilt coming into today's trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 604.7. The next area of resistance is around 600.0 and 604.7, while 1st support hits today at 582.0 and below there at 568.8. Full Story
Gold traded in a range of about $575 to $580 in Asia and London before it dropped near $570 in early New York trade, but it then began a recovery in midmorning trade and surged dramatically higher in the last 2 hours of trade to end 1.84% higher on the day. Silver remained near $10.30 in Asia before dropping to under $10.20 in early New York trade, but it then rallied to above $10.40 in late trade ahead of a slight dip into the close that led it to end with a gain of 0.58%. Both metals also furthered their gains in after hours trade with gold climbing above $590 and silver above $10.50 at one point, but both metals have come down from those levels by the time of writing. Full Story
Don’t look now, but a dilemma faces almost every single policy maker on the planet, and some tyrants roaming the planet. A few tyrants have no dilemmas like Putin in Russia, Chavez in Venezuela, and the faceless Sudanese dictator; they continue to rampage and pillage. Morales in Bolivia already made his decision; his die is cast. A fork is presented in the road in at least five power centers globally. As anyone with a sense of odds, chance, gambling, or probability knows, each fork has two choices. Full Story
Rising from oversold levels, daily momentum studies would support higher prices, especially on a close above resistance. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. A positive signal was given by the outside day up. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The next upside objective is 590.6. The next area of resistance is around 587.1 and 590.6, while 1st support hits today at 573.9 and below there at 564.3. Full Story
Gold briefly fell under $560 in Asia but rose back above $570 by the open of trade in London. It then fell under $565 in New York before a steep rally in the last half hour of trade led it to close near its highs with a gain of 1.41%. Silver briefly dropped under $9.80 in Asia and traded near $10 in London and early New York trade before it rallied in the last 2 hours of trade and ended near its highs with a gain of 3.11%. Full Story
By: Theodore Butler & Carl F. Loeb - 20 June, 2006
Perhaps one of life’s greatest pleasures and passages occurs when children teach their parents to look at something in a different perspective. I experienced this event, just before Father’s Day no less, when my son Ross shared with me a thought of his. Full Story
From the emails I’ve received in the past few days, it appears that I may be one of a very few who is currently short gold and long dollar. That’s alright, I’m not big on crowds. I realize our bearish position on gold is not a popular one, although it is a profitable one. I love the gold sector, but I’m not in love with gold. Full Story
Daily stochastics are showing positive momentum from oversold levels, which should reinforce a move higher if near term resistance is taken out. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The near-term upside objective is at 580.9. The 9-day RSI under 30 indicates the market is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance is around 576.0 and 580.9, while 1st support hits today at 568.7 and below there at 566.2. Full Story
Gold fell in Asia and London to come into New York about $10 lower. It then rallied back up near $575 by late morning before it fell back off into the close and ended 1.59% lower on the day. Silver fell into the $9.80s in London before it rose back near the $10 level in late morning New York trade, but it then fell back under $9.90 ahead of a small rally into the close that brought it back near $10. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor – Global Money Trends magazine - 19 June, 2006
The astonishing rally of commodity prices during the past four years, especially rising energy prices, are finally beginning to push US and global inflation indicators broadly higher. In late 2005, the Reuters’ index of 19-exchange traded commodities, surpassed record high levels set in the early 1980’s. By mid-May 2006, the CRB Index gained another 10 percent. Behind this year's rise in the Commodity index were unprecedented price increases of individual commodities. Full Story
Over the past years that I have been privileged to participate in this fledgling generational bull market in gold, I have written a goodly number of essays detailing the Commitments of Traders reports and analyzing how that relates to the price action experienced in the gold futures pit at the Comex. Full Story
The daily stochastics gave a bullish indicator with a crossover up. Daily stochastics are showing positive momentum from oversold levels, which should reinforce a move higher if near term resistance is taken out. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Market positioning is positive with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 591.1. The next area of resistance is around 587.7 and 591.1, while 1st support hits today at 575.7 and below that at 567.1 Full Story
Gold rose over $10 in after hours trade late yesterday and furthered its gains to over $580 in Asia and London, but it then fell throughout most of trade in New York to under $570 at one point before a rally into the close brought it back near $580 to close with a gain of 2.05%. Silver rose to $10.35 in London before falling to under $9.85 in New York, but it also rallied into the close and ended with a gain of 1.6%. Full Story
Now that we appear to have reached the peak of major wave ONE at $725 we can make some guesses as to the peak of the big major Wave THREE which will follow once the current Wave TWO correction is completed. We now know that the $725 level is 2.83 times the $256 start of the bull market. We can project that the peak of Wave THREE will be at least 2.83 times the low point of this correction. As Wave THREE could be the strongest of the bull market, it is possible that the multiple could be higher, possibly 1.618 x 2.83 = 4.58. Full Story
Gold is in a classic buying area, it’s recent sharp decline having halted exactly at its 200-day moving average and in a zone of strong support. We had expected it to drop to this zone, but to take probably a month or two to do so, instead it has arrived here in the space of a couple of weeks. Full Story
Silver broke down from a Head-and-Shoulders top area and its decline culminated in a capitulative panic, identical to that in gold, that has brought it down to a parallel zone of strong support in the vicinity of its 200-day moving average, which is a classic “buy spot”. Like gold it is believed to need a period of basing around the current level, that may last for a month or two, before it is ready to go up again. Note that silver may dip a little further short-term, perhaps close to $9, which would be regarded as an excellent buying opportunity. Full Story
Does oil follow the 8-year cycle as closely as the stock market does? Not as closely but the longer-term cycles with the Kress 120-year cycle series typically have a depressing effect on the oil price, not before but just after the final bottoming phase of the cycle. In other words, the oil price usually has a delayed reaction to the longer-term cycle bottoms. Full Story
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