Technically the correction in gold, silver and copper is over. Gold can rise to $1296 as long as it trades over $1227-$1237 zone. Silver needs to trade over $1609 till early August to continue its medium term bullish zone. Full Story
As you know, my job is to identify these set ups, whereas it is the market’s job to either follow through or invalidate them. Thus far, we have identified every bottoming set up since 2015 and the market has followed through strongly to the upside. During this time, the market has been building this potential breakout scenario. We are now at the point where the market will have to put up or shut up. There is really no more room left, for if the market has intentions of rallying in a heart of a 3rd wave, and making a strong statement, this is the point from which it should begin. Full Story
Summing up, the lack of decline in mining stocks doesn’t seem to have any bullish implications as miners had a very good reason for it in the form or a rallying stock market – the lack of decline in the former is therefore not a sign of strength and not a bullish development. Full Story
It should be a technical trade as there is no news. Geopolitical risk will be closely watched. This is the last week before Ramzan ends. Over the past decade there is a big spike in smuggled gold in India after Ramzan. Physical gold premiums can fall after two weeks. (unless gold prices continue to fall). Investors are happy due to continuation of bullish trend in stock markets.
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 19 June, 2017
China excluded from the global gold price or arbitrage includes it?
China is unhappy that gold prices should be driven by U.S. and dollar concerns. But many state that because there is no free flow of gold in and out of China, China will remain a parochial market, not integrated into the global gold market. Nothing is now further from the truth. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 19 June, 2017
Hong Kong’s central bank has stated that it prefers a stable exchange rate against the dollar. It is not independent of Shanghai and, judging by today’s exchange rate the People’s Bank of China agrees as we see the Yuan virtually unchanged today. This will allow us to see more clearly the differences between the Shanghai gold Exchange prices and London and New York. Full Story
Fed policy tightening is normally a headwind for gold. But, the last two times the Fed raised rates — December 14, 2016 and March 15, 2017 — gold rallied as if on cue. Gold is the most forward-looking of any major market. It may be the case that the gold market sees the Fed is tightening into weakness and will eventually over-tighten and cause a recession. Full Story
The broad averages have been entirely opportunistic of news, often in a perverse way. Recall that the most powerful rally of the last month was a short squeeze in reaction to a particularly negative stretch of stories concerning Trump. They were the usual, made-up claptrap from the media hacks who gin up the headlines, but it gave DaBoyz a perfect excuse for pulling their bids for a couple of days so that stocks could plummet quickly to relative bargain levels. With sellers exhausted, it has been easy since to keep stocks wafting higher. Full Story
- Bill Murphy of GATA.org returns with insights into this week's FOMC rate hike decision. - Fed policymakers raised the overnight lending rate by a quarter point from 1% to 1.25%. - Billionaire VC, Tim Draper is calling for $10,000 Bitcoin in 2018. Just as the PTB have lost control of the cryptocurrency tulip mania-like market. - Dr. Stephen Leeb presents a compelling case for China as the center of the global economy. Full Story
Both the technicals and fundamentals argue there is increasing downside risk in the precious metals sector. Real interest rates are rising and as the rate of inflation continues to fall, Gold will come under pressure even if nominal rates don’t rise. From a bird’s eye view, the price action in Gold and Silver so far this year is corrective, meaning it is a correction of the sharp downtrend seen in the second half of 2016. Full Story
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