By: John Rubino, DollarCollapse.com - 24 February, 2006
Housing stocks got a nice pop this week, as both Barron’s and the Wall Street Journal called luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers a buy. Interesting timing, this. Why would such usually-sensible papers talk up a cyclical industry at the peak of its cycle? Well, it seems that the big home builders have diversified into lots of different regions, and used their financial muscle to buy up all the good home sites. This makes them immune from a mild slump, which is what their fans expect. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 24 February, 2006
The bottom line is the HUI, no matter how beloved it is in contrarian circles, has not and will not rise in a straight line. It will surge higher in flowing uplegs and yield dazzling profits and then it will just as resolutely plunge in ebbing corrections to rebalance sentiment. It is irrational to expect anything else from a secular trend. Full Story
Will the SEC approve the ETF? I think so. The reason is that since the gold ETF's were approved, there is little legal justification for a denial. Without legal grounds upon which to base a denial, how can the SEC deny it? The Silver User's Association's plea contained no legal basis for a denial, just a whining anti-free-market hypocritical, self-serving, short-sighted, wrong-headed, rant. Full Story
If Nevada was a separate country, it would rank as the world’s #3 gold producer, with most of that production coming from the Carlin trend where over 50,000,000 ounces of gold have already been produced. There are, however, an increasing number of savvy explorers coming to the conclusion that the Cortez trend, which runs roughly parallel to and 50 miles southwest of the Carlin Trend, may host a resource as large, or even larger. Full Story
While the gold market was able to curb the profit taking selling seen on Thursday, with a slight bounce in the overnight action, the market remains vulnerable. Surprisingly the gold market hasn't seen much in the way of support from the falling Dollar, but most traders are not convinced yet that the Dollar is indeed headed for consistent losses. With China overnight projecting an increase in 2006 gold production, and the gold market recently seeing confirmation of an increase in 2005 gold production (in a couple key producing countries) the supply function has become a partially limiting factor. Full Story
Gold traded in the low $550s in Asia, London, and morning New York trade before it fell below $550 in afternoon trade and ended near its lows of the session with a near 1% loss. Silver mostly traded in the $9.50 to $9.60 range in Asia, London, and morning New York trade before it also fell off in late trade and ended near its lows of the session under $9.50. Full Story
Yes, the battle of the silver fundamentalists has begun. There are a few arguments involved, but the main point of contention is very basic. There is, or is not, a shortage of silver at this time. Your response will depend on which argument you believe, and this argument can also lead one into total confusion. Full Story
Gold prices traded lower over night as the market seems to lack a bullish catalyst right now to spark fresh buying interest. So far, the gold market is not garnering much support from a weaker Dollar, but if the Euro can gather upside momentum, then April gold may see some support later in the session. Since the headline CPI report Wednesday wasn't hot enough to rekindle inflation anxiety and with energy prices dropping sharply on over supply concerns, April gold may have a tough time climbing back over and sustaining a move above the $560 level right now. Full Story
Gold remained near unchanged in Asia, but it then dropped over $6 in London to under $548 before it rebounded throughout trade in New York and ended near its highs with a slight gain. Silver traded nicely higher in Asia before dropping over 15 cents in London, but it also rebounded in New York and ended with a nice gain. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 22 February, 2006
In an article at http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north436.html Dr Gary North argues that gold is presently a better investment than silver. This provoked a response from Franklin Sanders, the author of the excellent financial newsletter "The Moneychanger" (www.the-moneychanger.com) and someone who believes silver will outperform gold by a wide margin over the years ahead. Dr North then attempted a point-by-point rebuttal of Mr Sanders' arguments at http://www.garynorth.com/public/997.cfm So, who's right? Full Story
Over the past weekend, many articles were digested along with meals taken in alongside some more fine Olympic action (not without drama between Shani Davis and Chad Hedrick). Two essays caught my eye in particular, the brilliant but unsatisfying Doug Noland essay on the bond yield curve and a stern warning by Martin Feldstein on the exaggerated US economic condition. Full Story
My main objection with commodity ETFs is that, in addition to artificially altering supply and demand, they turn legitimate commodity law and regulation on its head. The main thrust of commodity law is to prevent concentrated speculative buying and selling from artificially influencing prices. This primary premise and intent of commodity law is obliterated by the concentrated buying (and selling someday) that a commodity ETF insures. It’s as if someone sat down and devised an idea that would upend all the safeguards and regulations against manipulation that have taken many decades to develop. Think I’m kidding? Please hear me out. Full Story
While the trade expects buying interest to underpin gold in the coming session, the near term bias might have shifted back in favor of the bear camp. However, there would seem to be a moderate escalation in Middle East tensions, with Iran promising to finance Hamas, in the wake of news that Israel was going to withhold tax revenues collected for the Palestinians and that should in conjunction with recent Nigerian developments, keep investment flowing toward the precious metals. Full Story
Gold traded nearly $5 higher in world trade Monday and then dropped back near Friday’s close in early Asian trade on Tuesday, but it then steadily climbed back in London and New York and ended with a decent gain. Silver also traded nicely higher in world trade Monday before falling a bit in early Asian trade on Tuesday, but it also climbed back nicely in London and New York and ended near its highs with a 1.38% gain. Full Story
The following is another installment of ‘top watch’, where we scour the financial landscape in search of clues to tell us when one should expect a profound directional trend change from up to down in the stock markets (equities) of the world. In further qualification of this study, it should be noted this author believes that all stocks markets of the world are rising in tandem on a sea of fiat currency (money supply) liquidity, and that we are entering the latter stages of a slow motion hyperinflation that may or may not accelerate considerably from here. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold-Authentic Money - 21 February, 2006
As an extension of the Oil crisis section this portion of our publication throws light on the link between the external $ and the internal one and their consequential impact on the gold price and global confidence / stability / uncertainty. What is apparent to all, is the careful separation of the management of the internal $ and the economy and the external one. The Fed manages the U.S. economy alongside the Administration with sustainable growth in mind. This is of prime importance to the authorities, overriding considerations of the external $. Full Story
When the gold price hit his all-time-low of $252,50 on 25. August 1999, the price jumped explosively on the 20. September from $254,50 to $327,50 on the 5th of October. Many saw the 20-year bearmarket of the gold price as being finished, however, the price went into a down-trend for another 20 months. On the 20. February and 1. April 2001the gold price marked a double bottom at $255, whereafter the new up-trend began. Full Story
We’ve all heard the old saying, "What’s good for General Motors is good for America." This is another way of saying that the fate of America’s major corporations is inextricably tied to the economic health of the entire country. But is this necessarily so? Full Story
By: John Rubino, Dollar Collapse - 21 February, 2006
But for now, suffice it to say that the central banks secretly lend their gold to bullion banks, which sell it on the open market (thus depressing gold's price) and invest the proceeds. The bullion banks are obligated to return the gold to the central banks someday, which means they're short gold and stand to make a lot of money if gold goes down. But of course it hasn’t gone down. It's up big, which means... Full Story
In August 2003 I published an Elliott Wave forecast for gold which suggested that the target for the peak of the first major wave of the new gold bull market was $630. This target was affirmed in subsequent articles, the most recent being “Elliott Wave Gold Update III” published 24 October 2004. Recent developments have necessitated a revision of the wave count. There is now a possibility that the target of $630 could be exceeded, possibly by a wide margin, depending on price action over the next few weeks. Full Story
The gold market is showing signs of positive follow through from last Friday's action and initially appears to be lagging behind silver in the early going. Since some gold players suggested that weakness in the energy market, throughout the first half of February undermined the gold market, the market should now be cheered on by the fact that crude oil prices have rebounded by $3.20 a barrel in just 3 sessions. In a partially negative but potentially unimportant development, China reported a 5.5% gain in 2005 gold production, but in the near term, we suspect that the precious metals are capable of discounting shifts in physical supply. Full Story
By: Joe Ferrazzano, Trade The Cycles - 20 February, 2006
It appears that Wave 4 (see NEM 1 month chart, second chart) will be a 6 weekish Elliot Wave ABC correction, since NEM's Wave A short term downcycle lasted 9 sessions, from 1-31-06's Wave 3 cycle highs until 2-13-06, and HUI/XAU's lasted 11 sessions, from 1-31-06's Wave 3 cycle highs until 2-15-06. The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave count (1 year NEM charts have clearest count) correctly indicated that Wave 3 ended on Tuesday 1-31-06. Full Story
From time to time, even these days, an article pops up by a writer who attempts to dismiss Technical Analysis, or charting, as random, worthless nonsense, or at least as being secondary to the superior art of Fundamental Analysis. One appeared on various sites not too long ago. Usually, the people writing such articles have dabbled in charting, found they had no aptitude for it, or lacked the interest and perseverance that proper study of this subject demands, and, rather than own up to the fact, they then attempt to aggrandize themselves by parading their ignorance in public attacks on the subject. Full Story
A recent article, POP GOES THE REAL ESTATE WEASEL! PART 2, generated a number of comments, questions, and complaints from my readers. Before we go further, let me state that we are going to be talking about real estate as an investment vehicle, not just the once in a lifetime purchase of a home to live in, raise a family, and then to retire in a condo of choice on the beach in the Costa del Sol, Spain, or Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. This is a lifestyle choice, not a scheme to get rich flipping condo’s and houses during a bull market. Full Story
The US military will expand its War in the Middle East around October 2006 … causing a historic stock market MELTDOWN and a commensurate SURGE in the price of Gold and Oil… Full Story
Gold traded mostly slightly higher in Asia before extending its gains a bit in London, but the major move higher came in morning New York trade and gold was able to hold above $550 into the day’s early close. Silver’s major move came in London trade, but its highs of the session around $9.50 came in New York trade before it fell off a bit into the close. Gold and silver equities rose about 3% in the first hour of trade before selling off a bit into the close, but they still ended nicely higher. Full Story
By: David Chapman, Union Securities - 19 February, 2006
The 2.3% surge in retail sales for January must have warmed the hearts of the bulls. The consumer it seems just keeps on truckin’. And that in turn keeps the economy humming. Economists scurried to revise upwards their economic forecasts. First quarter 2006 economic growth is now median forecast at 4% and upper end forecasts from such luminaries as Morgan Stanley are as high as 5.9%. And this was surmised even if the pace of retail sales slows in February and March. After the anaemic GDP growth pace in the 4th quarter 2005 of 1.1% everyone was just positively giddy. Full Story
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