So there you have it: The collapse of oil prices matters because, along with real estate, energy assets underpin most of the world's debt. The Fed may be able to pump out enough funny money to keep the Dow from falling straightaway to 5,000. But prevent a global debt bubble with a notional value 50 times the size of the U.S. stock market from collapsing? No way. Full Story
“Below is a 75 year quarterly chart we were watching very closely during the last impulse move down, because it broke below the brown shaded support and resistance zone going all the way back to the early 1970’s. When the price action was trading below the brown shaded S&R zone I speculated that we could see some reverse symmetry to the downside, as the rally back in the early 1970’s was so vertical. Here we are a year or so later and the CRB index has rallied right up to the top of the brown shaded S&R zone at the 200 area. What had been support since the 1970’s is now turning into resistance at the 200 area? Again, another important area to keep a close eye on.” Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 22 April, 2020
There is lot of noise among currency traders that euro/usd will reach parity soon. Gold will rise and continue to rise even if euro/usd reaches parity. Currency traders need to be careful on euro/usd longs. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 21 April, 2020
Gold and silver should rise after crude oil bust up. First casualty of the crude oil bust as Singapore Police probe Hin Leong After $800 Million Oil Losses. There will be more. I remember in 2009 during the natural gas price bust, a lot of hedge funds vanished. Red Kite and copper everyone one remembers. There will be a lot energy traders who have been busted. Large hedge funds and state backed hedge funds must have received back door funding to survive. There is a lot of bailouts of energy firm which will never come out in the open. Full Story
I know the title may sound unusual and almost unrealistic to those following the media cycle. With unemployment skyrocketing, GDP projections in the tank, bankruptcy expectations running sky high, and the average person on Main Street struggling terribly, how is this action even possible? Full Story
The news media and the pundits flailed around over the weekend trying to come up with reasons why the broad averages have rallied to within 10%-20% of record highs even though the global economy could be headed into a depression. ZeroHedge is usually able to provide plausible answers to such questions, but here's an attempt that fell short. It places commodity trading advisors at the center of the action: "CTAs, which are computer-driven models, do not care about such trivial facts as mass layoffs, millions of people infected with a deadly virus, and instead they only care if others are buying at which point they too join the buying frenzy."
I agree that CTAs don't care about facts, even world-changing ones. I also agree with the author's prediction that stocks eventually will fall much, much lower. But who are the "others" he says are attracting momentum players? Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 20 April, 2020
Today and tomorrow’s close is the key to gold prices. If it falls till tomorrow then gold will move into a short term bearish phase. If not then gold prices will form a medium term bottom. Investment demand is there for gold. But investors will wait if gold prices fall today. Full Story
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