By: Michael J. Kosares, USA Gold - 7 February, 2020
Echoing a theme, we advanced in this newsletter several months ago, Charlie Morris of Atlantic House Fund Management in the United Kingdom says “Gold remains the best-performing mainstream asset of the 21st century, yet investors own a mere 82 million ounces (worth $128bn) between them via the exchange-traded funds. That might sound like a substantial holding, but it is not. With global exchange-traded funds worth over $5trn, the implication is that the average portfolio has a mere 2% allocation to gold. Academic studies range in their conclusions, but they all suggest the optimized allocation should be greater than zero. I have often felt that 8% makes sense for a balanced portfolio and 15% to 25% for an all-weather total return fund.” Full Story
Believe me when I tell you that I so want to be uber-bullish the metals at this time based upon the larger degree structure, especially in silver. However, I have to also outline the micro structures, and I simply do not have a clearly completed micro structure in gold. Whereas silver has certainly provided us with the minimum number of waves to consider its wave  as completed, and GDX has ALMOST reached the minimum target I wanted to see, GLD has not even come close to providing us with a clear and clean 2nd wave pullback. Full Story
I am cautiously optimistic on the short term bullish trend in industrial metals. Corona virus is infecting more and more people globally. The longer this trend continues the economic damage will also be long lasting. Central bank intervention works up to a certain point and creates only asset bubbles. Thereafter fundamental reality sinks among traders and investors and the inflated asset bubble bursts. Remain invested in gold. Full Story
By: Chris Marchese, Chief Mining Analyst at GoldSeek - 6 February, 2020
Fortuna is cheap on a fundamental basis and looking at a chart going to the resumption of the bull market in early 2016, the stock price has lagged. Lindero, which when in full production will account for roughly 50% of Fortuna’s attributable production at a 85:1 GSR (dropping to roughly 40% at a more normal 60:1 GSR) beginning in 2020. This is important because the gold price is significantly higher relative to early 2016 (silver as well albeit to a much lesser degree). As with any investment there are always risks, the two most important to keep track of regarding Fortuna Silver being geopolitical risk namely Argentina and Mexico to a lesser degree. Full Story
Central banks believe that by injecting additional liquidity everything will be fine. Interest rate cut is the buzz word this year. The purchasing power of your national currency will rapidly fall on every massive liquidity injection. Use sharp dips to invest in gold for the long term. Full Story
Having predicted last year that a recession would begin in the summer of 2019 and that it would likely start with a major repo crisis, I am now proven wrong by 2019’s fourth-quarter GDP. If the repo crisis that started in the final week of summer had actually been the start of a recession, we would have seen fourth-quarter GDP go negative. Instead, it came in at 2.1% growth. Full Story
The fundamentals for Gold, as we noted last week remain very encouraging but if the Fed is going to cut rates again, it has to be closer to imminent before precious metals respond. Sentiment and now short-term technicals are flashing some warning signs.
The good news is the uptrends are well-intact and will remain so even if these markets correct more and test their 200-day moving averages. Some stocks would correct with the sector and some may not. Full Story
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 4 February, 2020
- Are gold miners poised to begin a long period of outperformance against gold?
- I’ve argued that most gold stocks peaked against gold bullion in 2006. GDX $31 and GDXJ $46 are my “launchpad” numbers for a major new bull run, a run that could last for decades.
- Please click here now. Schroders fund manager James Luke believes the miners peaked in 2005.
- He argues that the company managers and directors believed the “hubris” of much higher gold price predictions that were made in 2010-2011. They spent too much money on expansion while cash flow cratered. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 4 February, 2020
As the Fed and Central banks continue propping up the financial markets, many precious metals analysts advise owning gold over silver. They say that gold is the key precious metal that will be used to reintroduce a “Sound Monetary System.” However, I believe the real winner in terms of “future value” in percentage terms will be silver, not gold. Full Story
Gold investment demand in ETF and all forms are rising at historical record high with passing of each day. If gold prices rise next week, then gold price will form a long term top on or before 7th April and thereafter move in to a bearish trend for the rest of the year. (Assuming corona virus fears get vanished.) Corona virus will have a much bigger impact to global economy than SARS. The only good thing is that it is in China. Chinese leaders make the quickest tough people friendly decisions unlike India where petty politics is always played on people’s friendly decision. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was gold, up 1.12 percent. The majority of gold traders and analysts were bullish in the weekly Bloomberg survey as concerns mount regarding the coronavirus spreading out of China. The yellow metal had a second monthly gain as investors flock to safe havens amid the global health emergency. China’s gold imports rose in December to the highest level since April, according to customs data. Total imports of non-monetary gold rose to 146,758 kilograms. Full Story
The coronavirus continues to dominate headlines along with the impeachment non-trial. Coronavirus is having an economic impact that is sure to deepen. We try to put it in perspective. Adding to the busy week there were central bank decisions. Markets were volatile with some sharp ups and downs. But Friday’s 600 point drop for the DJI may be signaling that the markets have made a top. Confirmation is needed. Bonds and gold benefitted.
With spreads narrowing once again and the 3-month-10-year spread turning negative we may be creeping closer to a recession. Q1 GDP is expected to be weaker and Q4 GDP came in weaker than many expected with further revisions to come.
Chinese markets re-open Monday following the Lunar New Year holiday and they are expected to gap down. North American markets could well follow through to the downside this coming week. Parts of China are in lockdown and flights to and from China are being cancelled. All this is sure to negatively impact Chinese GDP costing potentially 2 full points. China is so interlocked with the rest of the world that a slowdown in China impacts everyone else as well. Call it the economic flu and it spreads with little defense. Full Story
HUI Monthly gives the most bullish view of all as it backs out the short-term noise of the daily chart, the negative divergences of the daily and weekly charts and simply tells a story. That story begins with a bottom at the H&S target of 100, continues with the first up leg in 2016 (A), the long consolidation to kill the spirits of the 2016 bull herd and then a secondary low at the support of the 2016 cluster and point B of our theoretical A-B-C bear market upward correction scenario. It’s important to note here that gold stocks may very well be in a significant new bull market but I am calling it a bear market correction because there is no reason not to at this point with the target is still well higher at C. Full Story
Gold pushing upper band of Bollinger band on monthly gold chart. There is nothing bearish on the chart, 18-month moving average now bullish, over the 100-month moving average. Weekly gold chart trying to break above the 1613.30 highs from missile day - swing lines. The uptrend in gold continues..
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 3 February, 2020
From a technical standpoint, it is troubling that the Dow's seemingly invincible rally sputtered out without having reached the 29,757 target shown in the chart. This is close enough to the milestone number 30,000 that it should be considered magnetic. A case of 'close but no cigar'? Wall Street would be forever shamed if the greatest bull market of them all were to die just inches from so obvious and compelling a target. It will remain viable nonetheless unless the pattern's point 'C' low, 27,326, is exceeded to the downside. I should also mention that, under the rules of our trading system, the Dow would trigger a 'mechanical' buy at 27,934, stop 27,326 Full Story
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