By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 7 July, 2006
While the degree of the differential in expected returns following winning and losing streaks is probably not great enough to excite stock investors, in the highly leveraged world of options even small probability edges can yield fantastic additional profits. In options, it pays big to carefully consider even minor details. Full Story
The price of crude oil has just reached the highest level of all time.
This is precisely what I told you to expect in Your Roadmap for the Dow, Gold, and Oil which I sent you two weeks ago. That’s where I laid out my targets. Now not only oil, but also gold have set off my buy signals.
But You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet! Here’s What’s Coming Next ... Full Story
While the Dollar is unchanged this morning, there is significant anticipation on what the US numbers today will portend for the Greenback! However, a surprisingly strong bid from US Treasuries yesterday suggests that the odds of an on hold US Fed have increased off recent data. Therefore, the US non farm payroll number this morning appears to be a very critical inflection point for the Dollar and in turn for gold & silver prices. Full Story
Kondratieff Wave Analysis predicts a spike in interest rates at this stage of the cycle (Winter). Per K-Wave, what follows is MASSIVE liquidation and a collapse in stocks and real-estate! Full Story
I’m very picky about option brokers because many of my specific trading recommendations use puts and calls for leverage. Here’s the bad news about that: 99.99% of the brokers I’ve screened for the assignment flunk miserably, since they cannot execute your orders in a way that will leave you with even a prayer of making money. Ditto for such electronic access programs as RealTick and TradeStation. They appear to have been designed by computer geeks rather than traders, making it far more likely that you will lose money not only because of stupidity, but because of trading "accidents" that could have been avoided. Let me explain. Full Story
While the gold market is lower as of this writing, the market did manage to hold above what many suggest is a critical support zone on the charts of $625. There have been several Press reports over the last two sessions that have suggested that bullishness among gold market timers is running at a high level, but one would expect bullishness to be running hot with the gold market managing to forge a $75 per ounce rally in less than 3 weeks. Full Story
Short-term internal momentum for the silver stocks is still rising, a fact that contributed to the across-the-board rally in the silver stocks last week. Internal momentum as measured by the SS HILMO indicators (silver stock hi-lo momentum), which measure the rate of change in the net new highs among the actively traded silvers, is improving. The SS HILMO indicators haven’t gone up into positive territory yet, but since they are all upward-slanting it reflects a short-term upward bias in the silver stocks that should allow for some further rally before the next short-term cycle peak. Full Story
Keeping it simple is easier said than done. But over the years, I’ve learned to achieve simplicity by necessity. Managing a portfolio of stocks is almost a full time job, and unless you are a good stock picker, your overall return on stocks may very well under perform the ETFs and funds. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 5 July, 2006
That is, we are expecting the financial backdrop to soon become very favourable for gold, leading to a period in which gold makes substantial gains relative to all other metals as well as fiat currencies. Therefore, although the initial setbacks in global equity markets and the industrial metals have predictably been accompanied by a sharp decline in the gold price, it is important to keep in mind that what's happening now is setting the stage for gold to rally against almost everything. Full Story
With the front Page of the Wall Street Journal carrying stories about slowing growth due to even higher rates and discussions of the potential for over tightening, the metals markets could see the macro economic outlook shift into the favor of the bear camp. However, while the macro economic and Foreign exchange related impact on gold might be partially defeating this morning, the geopolitical uncertainty around the globe seems to be taking control. In addition to 5-6 missiles being fired by North Korea, the market also sees the potential for sanctions again Iran if they fail to halt enrichment by July 12th. Full Story
Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend has turned up. The gap upmove on the day session chart is a bullish indicator for trend. The market has a bullish tilt coming into today's trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. The next upside target is 629.0. Full Story
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