Gold dipped $5.60 to $1219.10 in Asia before it bounced back to $1227.00 just after this morning’s jobs data was released, but it then fell to a new session low of $1207.30 in late morning New York trade and ended with a loss of 1%. Silver flash crashed to $14.402 in Asia before it rebounded to $15.981 in early New York trade, but it then fell back to $15.362 by late morning and ended with a loss of 2.81%. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 7 July, 2017
Shanghai is stabilizing again today, but not by much. New York traded at $6 lower than Shanghai following Shanghai’s close yesterday. Today London opened $11 lower than Shanghai. Until gold makes a firm break one way or another we consider it directionless as it has been for most of the second quarter. Today, once again, remains a critical day for the gold price in all three global centers as the direction forward is still to be established. Full Story
– Silver prices ‘flash crash’ before rebound – Silver hammered 7% lower in less than minute in Asian trading – Silver fell from $16 to $14.82, before recovering to $15.89 – Silver plunge blamed on another ‘trading error’ – Gold similar ‘flash crash’ last week and similar recovery Full Story
Fundamentally there is no positive news for gold and silver. They are just moved by US interest rate trends and global bond yields. This correlation will be over by September and new correlations will be seen. A stronger US economy can result in initial losses for bullion but will start another 2003 type bull wave in gold. Excess will happen in a world where algorithmic trading/robots trade. The restarting of another super bull run is getting delayed by another few years. Full Story
Gold saw slight gains in Asia before it drifted back to $1222.70 in London and then popped back higher in early New York trade, but it still ended with a loss of 0.05%. Silver slipped to as low as $15.937 and ended with a loss of 0.12%. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 6 July, 2017
The Fed Minutes gave a less certain picture than was interpreted by the media from the statement by Janet Yellen. The Fed is worried that inflation is falling, not rising and it is now clear that if we do see a rate hike, we are unlikely to see a start to the tapering of the Fed’s Balance Sheet. But we do expect a Balance Sheet reduction from September at a very slow pace, so the prospect of a rate hike this year is falling away if the data pattern continues as it is now. Full Story
The risks posed to investors and savers from the coming economic crisis and the threat of bank bail-ins, negative interest rates, ‘helicopter money,’ capital controls and the “cashless society” has been looked at in an excellent and timely article by economist John Adams, writing in the Daily Telegraph. While the article is focused on how these risks threaten Australia and Australian investors and savers, the risks outlined are ones which threaten even those with modest amounts of wealth and all exposed to the western financial system. Full Story
All the bad news in gold and silver has been factored in by traders. This is reflected by this week’s fall. Even a marginally good US jobs number (starting with the US private ADP jobs number) can result in short covering in gold and silver. Short sellers need to look for signs of short covering and subsequent rebuilding of long positions. Full Story
Gold edged up to $1228.80 in Asia before it fell back to $1217.60 in London, but it then bounced back higher in New York and ended with a gain of 0.41% from Monday. Silver rose to as high as $16.219 before it fell back to $15.881 and then also edged back higher at times, but it still ended with a loss of 0.68%. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 5 July, 2017
While the gold price has broken down through the ‘Golden Cross’ and the Technical picture does not look so good, there are more than one probabilities for the gold price going forward. Today is critical to pointing the way forward for both the silver and gold prices. Are we looking for a rebound back to the “Golden Cross” then another heavy fall, or has all the work done by the gold price to get above that critical line at $1,250 been for nothing? This is when the fundamentals kick in as well as the behavior of the burgeoning Shanghai Gold Exchange. Gold and silver could go either way today! Full Story
– UBS believe investors should take advantage of gold’s first monthly decline – “We like the insurance qualities for gold” on uncertainty – Strong demand, weak output and low dollar to support – Warning as North Korea tests intercontinental ballistic missile – Launch of ICBCM is a “new escalation of the threat” and revives geo-political risks – Syria, Qatar, Saudi, Israel, Iran risks mean Middle East remains powder keg Full Story
The actions and words of Trump makes me believe that North Korea could soon face US military might. Chinese stance will be the key here. Geopolitical risks have had limited impact on positively affecting gold and silver. It remains to be seen if North Korea will give a new life to bullion bulls. Slew of US economic data releases are there till Friday. Physical demand of gold and silver in Asia will be the key. There will be a crash in the UK session and the early US session only if Asian demand does not occur and vice-versa. Full Story
Gold fell throughout most of world trade and ended near its last minute low of $1220.20 with a loss of 1.7%. Silver slipped to as low as $16.109 and ended with a loss of 2.83%. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 3 July, 2017
New York weakened on Friday after Shanghai and London weakened. This morning Shanghai weakened further setting the stage for London to fall. As you can see London is also seeing downward pressure as the U.S. dollar strengthened a little against all currencies bar the Pound Sterling. Full Story
From President Trump taking office, Fed policy tightening to European and UK elections, Brexit rumblings and growing Middle Eastern risks, the first half of 2017 gave witness to a few trends which look set to impact markets in the coming months. Gold and silver are amongst the best performing assets in 2017, with gains of 8% and 4% respectively and stayed resilient despite poor sentiment. Full Story
Tomorrow’s US holiday can result in lower trading volumes today also. Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls will tell us whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September or November. A big fortnight for the US dollar. If the US dollar continues its slide in the next fortnight then at least ten percent more weakness will be there in the short term. I do not think FOMC minutes this week will have any impact on bullion or the US dollar unless there are dissident members on June’s interest rate hike. Full Story
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