Gold fell a few dollars in early Asian trade but moved a few dollars higher by the London open which held the price near $622 until the open in New York. Gold soon rose near $624 before it fell to find slight losses midmorning, but it then rallied into the close and ended 0.39% higher on the day. Silver followed a similar pattern in a range of about $12.20 to $12.40 before it ended near the middle of that range with a gain of 0.41%. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 25 August, 2006
Copper, a lowly industrial metal seemingly incapable of capturing investors’ imaginations, has become the dark horse champion of our unfolding commodities bull. It just keeps rising and rising on balance, becoming the little engine that could. Full Story
I believe that the vast majority of exploration shares have posted their correction lows. They are now in the process of building important bases before resuming their Bull Market. After staging a major price rise between the summer of 2005 and May, 2006, the wind was abruptly let out of their sails as they followed gold sharply lower. Now, I am confident that the tide has begun to change in their favor. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster – Global Watch - 25 August, 2006
But it is also clear that there can be a time lapse between a move in the gold price and moves in shares prices. But the subsequent moves in share prices can be far greater than the equivalent moves in the gold price, both ways. In theory and for traders with alacrity, one can take advantage of both moves. Indeed some of the most established and largest gold shares will move early in a move up in the gold price, with the medium quality following and the average Junior following the two. On the way down the reverse is usually true. Full Story
On the first Friday of every month, observers of the USEconomy, armchair critics of official policy, cheerleaders to the American dream, spin doctors on Wall Street, and an army of investors wait with baited breath for the mass of horse pucky, meadow muffins, and road apples that is the stuff of the JOBS REPORT, a surefire conjob if there ever was one. Full Story
Daily stochastics are trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh on the market. The next downside target is 622.0. The next area of resistance is around 632.5 and 638.0, while 1st support hits today at 624.5 and below there at 622.0. Full Story
It’s just the lack of liquidity that is driving gold and silver lower. As the summer trading comes to an end the traders are booking profits very quickly. Full Story
Gold fell a few dollars in Asia and rebounded to find slight gains in London to above $625 by the New York open, but it then steadily fell off in choppy trade for the rest of trade in New York and ended near it lows with a loss of 0.61%. Silver fell under $12.40 in Asia before it rose above $12.50 in London, but it also fell off in New York and ended near its lows with a loss of 1.37%. Full Story
The year 2006 to date has been a year marked by extreme apathy, to say nothing of extreme fear. In the early part of the year we saw apathy as the S&P 500 index slowly drifted its way to higher highs but in a most unemphatic fashion. This was accompanied by a persistent bullish sentiment among investors yet the commitment was obviously lacking. Full Story
Trading of commodities in general has doubled from 2001 to 2005, while hedge fund investments in the energy market are up from $3 billion in 2000 to about $70 billion in 2005. This sector is growing and it’s set to continue growing in the decade ahead. This is part of the 200 year commodity cycle that we’ve often discussed. And it’s why we will continue to recommend gold, silver and their shares, as well as energy and resource shares for as long as the major trend lasts. Full Story
Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are taken out. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside target is 625.7. The next area of resistance is around 637.3 and 642.8, while 1st support hits today at 628.7 and below there at 625.7. Full Story
Gold fell $2-$3 in Asia before it rebounded in London and came into New York near unchanged at about $625. It then rose to over $630 by 10AM EST before it fell off sharply in the next hour to about $621.20, but it then rebounded into the close and ended just 0.19% lower on the day. Silver remained near unchanged in Asia before it started to rise in London and traded at over $12.60 by 9AM EST in New York. It then fell off about 20-25 cents in the rest of morning trade, but a slight rebound in afternoon trade allowed it to close with a 1.88% gain on the day. Full Story
This is written with some trepidation. Silver is much more volatile than gold, and forecasting it is fraught with peril. Nonetheless, I think it is important to have some goal or target in mind when you take a position in an investment. Over the past few years I have taken a major position in silver, so I want to take this opportunity to think my way through where I think it could go, and how long it could take to get there. Full Story
At this time, the catalyst for a Surge in Gold Stocks would need to be higher gold prices + higher stocks prices. Gold stocks have been moving in lock step fashion with Major Averages. So what would bring about higher stock prices? Especially if we consider that continued strength in the Bond market implies a softer economy ahead (and by extension a continued deterioration in key sectors).
The answer can be summarized thus – A FLIGHT TO SAFETY. Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next downside objective is now at 627.6. The next area of resistance is around 636.8 and 638.8, while 1st support hits today at 631.2 and below there at 627.6. Full Story
It’s the central bank gold sales that has prevented gold from rising. The manipulation of gold prices by central banks is now virtually over. Full Story
Gold rose a couple of dollars in Asia before it fell back off to near unchanged in London and dropped a few more dollars in morning New York trade, but it then rallied back in the last 2 hours of trade and ended with an insignificant loss. Silver rose to over $12.30 in Asia before it fell off in London and continued to drop in early New York trade to as low as $11.98 at one point, but it then rallied throughout most of the rest of trade and ended with just minor a loss. Full Story
This past week, the investment world witnessed an event that has only occurred rarely in the past. I am referring to the extraordinary developments in the nickel market on the London Metals Exchange (LME), the largest base metals exchange in the world. Due to an unprecedented scarcity of metal, the LME was forced to revise the delivery terms of its nickel contracts. In return for allowing short sellers to delay delivery of metal, a daily penalty fee of around 1% of the contract value was payable by the shorts to long holders. Full Story
While advice to follow the money has been given far too often, it remains good wisdom. Money is moving to where it is safest, and likely to rise in purchasing power. Individuals have understood for more than forty years that they cannot trust their government to maintain the purchasing power of their national money. That phenomenon of individuals moving to money in which they have a higher faith, moneyization, is a real world phenomenon. A small sample of that shift in money is shown in the first graph. Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. If yesterday's gap higher on the day session chart holds, additional buying could develop this session. There could be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The next downside target is now at 629.8. The next area of resistance is around 637.5 and 639.1, while 1st support hits today at 632.9 and below there at 629.8. Full Story
Gold rose about $5 in early Asian trade and came into London about $10 higher. After remaining in the low $620s in London, it then added another few dollars at the New York open and remained near its highs into the close to end with a gain of 2.24%. Silver followed a similar pattern and ended about 10 cents off its highs, but it still closed with a gain of 2.51%. Full Story
As we write this article at 1:00 CST with Gold at 625.60 (up 13.70), Silver at 12.27 (up .30) and the XAU at 146.56 (up 5.84), we have to conclude that investors should now be leaving the grocery store, proud of their new purchases, take a deep breath and exercise patience. Sure we will have some ‘backing and filling’ but don’t dilly dally. Not that you can’t buy later, albeit at higher prices, but those of you reading this are the savvy investors, right? We are the one’s who have arrived early at this party and the party is still just getting started. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 21 August, 2006
Since reaching a 25-year high of 365.45 on May 11th, the Reuters Commodity Index, (CRB index), has been showing signs of fatigue, after a relentless four-year climb. The CRB index doubled from four years ago, led by commodity superstars, such as crude oil, copper, gold, platinum, silver, and sugar. However, since topping out three months ago, the CRB index has slumped about 9%, whipping up speculation that the “Commodity Super Cycle” is fizzling out. Full Story
A lot has happened since publishing “Silver on Sale,” in the June 2004 edition of our International Speculator. As predicted in that article, the price of silver has risen strongly, more doubling from $6.09 to the current $12.18, with a peak of as high as $15 in May. The performance of silver has outshone even gold: silver was up almost 31% in 2005, compared to gold’s gain of almost 18%. Now some investors are asking: “Was that it?” And if we aren’t near the top for silver, then how high will it go? Full Story
To see how "bombing support" has worked this year take a look at the graph provided below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the year to date. Notice how major terrorist bombings strategically bolstered the Dow at a number of points along the way and in some cases seemed to provide the market with some extra impetus: Full Story
So Benanke is going to beat inflation. At what cost? The gold price has drifted as a result of the believed benign inflation figures, but this area of gold movement is not about inflation but the flight from paper. The dollar remains vulnerable and further distrust of the US currency as an investment medium will trigger more upside moves in all the metal prices. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 21 August, 2006
Gold produced 5 uptrend lines on this 6 year chart and if you zoom in you could still squeeze in one more. Suffice to say such a serious move up usually is followed with an equally serious move down. What’s muting this correction to a large degree is the geopolitical tension plaguing the globe. However Gold did mount a rather rapid correction in a relatively short period of time and that is a somewhat positive factor. Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside target is now at 609.9. The next area of resistance is around 627.8 and 634.4, while 1st support hits today at 615.6 and below there at 609.9. Full Story
Another piece of evidence that the commodity bull cycle may be ending is the long term CRB chart. For the first time since the commodity bull began in 2001, we have a MACD sell signal, while prices are threatening to break the five year uptrend. One thing for sure: this is not an ideal time to be investing in resource stocks, not until after a major correction anyways. This long term CRB chart is a stark contrast to the general consensus that the commodity bull is still in its infancy. You make the call! Full Story
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