Gold has failed to gain traction over the past couple months, normally a seasonally-strong time. That has really weighed on sentiment, leaving traders increasingly bearish. Gold investment demand has flagged dramatically with lofty stock markets spewing great euphoria. That’s given gold-futures speculators the run of the market, where they have sold aggressively including extreme shorting. But that’s actually very bullish.
Gold price action is driven by the collective trading of both investors and speculators. The former control vast amounts of capital, which dominates gold prices when it is migrating in or out. But investors’ interest in gold withers when stock markets are super-high. When stocks seemingly do nothing but rally, there’s no perceived need to prudently diversify stock-heavy portfolios with counter-moving gold. It falls out of favor. Full Story
The one point I can add to the GDX is that since it I am counting it as a potential leading diagonal, it would seem that it is attempting to provide us the overlap in waves iv and i which is common in diagonals. That could explain the depth of this pullback. But, I also want to note that this is why I have problem relying on leading diagonals since they act like corrective structures until completed. Full Story
It’s like a breath of fresh air when the futures actually finish lower on the day. Granted, the S&P slippage on Thursday amounted to only a few measly points. Would it be churlish to hope it’s the start of something really nasty? Bulls should be hoping for nothing less, since the broad averages, especially the Nasdaq, are desperately in need of a rest. Nitro-fueled by FAANG stocks, the Naz has been climbing very steeply since early March. Corrections have been few and far between, averaging about one ‘red’ day for every ten ‘green’. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 26 April, 2019
US GDP numbers is overhyped today. Traders will take positions for next week’s FOMC meet and host of US jobs numbers. There will be an Easter impact on US jobs. Global economy has a feel good situation. Once again it will be a technical trade today. Central bank buying has failed to lift gold. I am against going long in crude oil unless it breaks and trades over $67.20 till Mid May. Remain on the sidelines in copper. Full Story
Having artfully freaked out a whole bunch of investors by breaching nearby support and dropping quite sharply, so that they have panicked and scurried over to the wrong side of the boat again, the PM sector appears to be in the process of reversing to the upside now right where we would expect it to – at the lower boundary of its main upside channel, which we can see to advantage on the 1-year chart for GDX below. Full Story
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 24 April, 2019
Recent COT reports show the commercials doing aggressive buying of both gold and silver COMEX contracts. That’s positive but it doesn’t reduce account drawdowns for gold stock investors.
The bottom line is that physical market demand softness is likely to continue into the summer… but a big relief rally for the entire precious metals sector is imminent! Full Story
The bull market has gone vertical, suggesting stocks are in a blowoff phase. Where will it end? We’ll hazard a guess simply because it’s irresistible fun, and because one of these days we’re going to get it right. Let me therefore offer 2953.50 for the June contract, or 2974.25 if any higher. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 24 April, 2019
I believe that the fall in gold prices is good for gold jewelry demand in Asia. Prices are still very high in my view all over Asia. The more the correction in Asian gold prices, the more the demand in Asia. There will be a slight dip in gold demand around 6th May in Islamic nations as the fasting month of Ramadan begins. Full Story
The gold stocks are extremely oversold on a short-term basis and a rally should begin within the next day or two. That being said, the path of least resistance is lower until the market shifts its focus from a rate cut to rising inflation. That will take some time. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 23 April, 2019
I have been writing for quite some time that higher crude oil prices will be a big threat to global economic growth. Iran, Venezuela and Libya crude oil is not there. May to September is the key consumption months for the year. Global economic growth will be derailed if crude oil prices continue to rise. Inflation in Asia will also rise if crude oil prices zoom. Higher crude oil prices is generally bullish for gold. Full Story
Gold demand has been supported lately by the idea that global output could begin to roll over on higher operating costs and the lack of large discoveries. However, it doesn’t look as if “peak gold” has arrived just yet. Output is expected to rise to 109.6 million ounces this year, an increase of 2.1 percent more than in 2018, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. This will be “the strongest growth in the past three years, debunking commentary calling for peak gold,” analyst Christopher Galbraith told Bloomberg. Galbraith added that more than half of the increase “is projected to come from new mines that are expected to come on stream this year or have recently commissioned.” Full Story
Can the Precious Metals sector advance if the broad stockmarket continues higher? Of course, because if the stockmarket continues to advance because of Central Bank buying on a grand scale to goose it higher, it means QE4 and eventual inflation /hyperinflation as we continue inexorably along the road already trodden by Venezuela and Zimbabwe.
The overall conclusion is that the Precious Metals sector is at or very close to an important bottom here and this is a good time to buy. Full Story
By: Chris Waltzek, GoldSeek Radio - 22 April, 2019
- Harry S. Dent Jr. brings fresh insights on the US financial markets in his latest appearance. - US equities remain one of a handful of stock bourses to make set new records since 2018. - The stock market resiliency may be due in part to approximately $16 trillion of monetary-stimulus. - Excessive liquidity injections could foment an epic financial bubble crescendo, culminating with Nasdaq 10,000. Full Story
The Dow Industrials look primed for a 900-point rally, assuming they can close for two consecutive day’s above Friday’s high. It occurred slightly beneath a 26,656 Hidden Pivot resistance that’s a good bet to show stopping power. However, anything above it would bring a new pivot resistance at 27,463 into focus. That’s exactly 904 points above, and it would become all but certain to be achieved if the lower number is breached decisively. Longer-term, the chart shows that the Indoos could ascend to as high as 33,213 — 6654 points, or 25%, higher — if the bullish rampage begun in January continues into 2020. Full Story
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