Gold traded mostly slightly lower near $595 in Asia and London, rose up near $600 in early New York trade, fell back off to trade slightly lower again, and then rose slightly at the close to end with a small gain. Silver fell about fifteen cents in Asia and London prior to a rally in early New York trade that saw brief gains before it fell for the rest of trade and ended near its lows with a loss of 1.15%. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster Global Watch - 27 October, 2006
Since the entry of the U.S.A into World War II the U.S. has been the most powerful nation on earth. But how long will this continue. As another piece on the changing shape of the global economy we show how China’s growth has moved even faster than we thought it would. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 27 October, 2006
At any given moment in time there are broad strategic themes exerting tremendous influence on the financial markets behind the scenes. Students of the markets call these themes secular trends. They are long-term supply-and-demand-driven forces that cause a particular price to move in one direction on balance for many years. Full Story
The longer term motivation for today's article is the Gold Super Cycle that will carry to $1,400. Both Gold and Silver have put in place important bottoms and are now building formations that will carry both higher. Investors need to keep those two factors in mind when considering any single day's action. When the hedge funds pushed Gold above equilibrium a few months ago all were excited, but the action was not real. That same lack of reality will arrive too in the paper asset markets, and many will again feel relieved to be in Gold and not paper. Full Story
The major trend could be turning up with the close back above the 40-day moving average. Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The near-term upside target is at 607.0. The next area of resistance is around 604.0 and 607.0, while 1st support hits today at 595.6 and below there at 590.1. Full Story
Any sustained gold rise will result in higher investment demand. The laggards who have been waiting for gold to break and edge past $600 will soon start to invest as soon as there is a sustained break over $600. Full Story
Gold gained about $5 in after hours access trade yesterday, held most of its gains in Asia and London, and rose near $600 in New York before it fell back off a bit, but it still ended with a gain of 1.60%. Silver followed a similar pattern but remained near its highs into the close and ended with a gain of 2.97%. Full Story
Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next upside target is 601.4. The next area of resistance is around 596.7 and 601.4, while 1st support hits today at 584.9 and below there at 577.8. Full Story
Gold is not out of the woods yet and needs to break and close over key technical resistances for further gains. It’s the rise in Zinc prices that surprised everybody yesterday, the three month London metal Exchange (LME) crossed the $4100 mark yesterday. Full Story
Gold remained near unchanged in Asia and London and dropped to about $580 in early New York trade, but it then popped higher after oil inventory data was released, remained near its highs into the close, and ended with a gain of 0.67%. Silver followed a similar pattern and gained 0.34%. At the time of writing, both metals are trading about an additional 0.5% higher in after hours access trade in reaction to the fed’s statement. Full Story
Gold prices remain almost at the whim of energy prices currently. A more hawkish report from the Fed certainly would have supported a larger rally than the $3 move today. There’s still no major theme for gold to latch onto at this time, keeping participants away from the market. Full Story
One of the big debates taking place this year in financial circles concerned the possible effects the 4-year cycle bottom would have on the markets and economy this year, particularly around September when it was expected to bottom. A rather large contingent of analysts expected a big decline similar to the one that hit the market in 2002 at the previous 4-year cycle bottom as well as the big decline at the 4-year low of September 1998. Full Story
In the last few years, a dangerous trend has occurred, whereby hidden machinations, secret dealings, and devious activities have grown to become commonplace. What has become more alarming is that so few people seem bothered by the trend. Foreigners watch in disbelief. Once upon a time, people used to suspect devices and policies in place to control financial markets. Official denials and misdirection was the order of the day. No more. They are openly admitted nowadays, often justified as protecting our systemic vitality and integrity itself. Full Story
I’d like to continue on a theme I wrote about last week, namely, attempting to uncover the true relative value of silver compared to gold. You see, I am convinced that the most widely used yardstick, dividing the price of gold by the price of silver, may be inadequate and even misleading. I don’t believe that enough information is provided by price alone. It’s kind of like trying to determine the weather by temperature alone – 72 degrees Fahrenheit sounds pleasant, but not if you’re in the grip of a hurricane. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 25 October, 2006
There may be some forecasters who think the Dow eventually will surpass the 13045 target I’ve been touting here for the last month, but certainly none who are more bearish on the economy than I. Not even Bob Prechter, who recently lobbed a 13000 target of his own into the firmament of bullish mind-benders. There would appear to be two schools of thought on this: 1) that when permabears like Bob Prechter and I turn bullish, there are no more pessimists left to sell stocks, hence the market is vulnerable to a crash; or, 2) we naysayers are not the least bit bullish, but we sure as hell know how to read a chart. Full Story
Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend has turned up. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat bullish. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The near-term upside objective is at 598.0. The next area of resistance is around 594.0 and 598.0, while 1st support hits today at 581.1 and below there at 572.1. Full Story
Gold rose a bit in early Asian trade, fell back off and came into London slightly lower, rose a little in London, and came into New York near $580. Gold fell over the next two hours to the low $570s, but it then rallied higher for the rest of trade and ended near its highs with a gain of 0.71%. Silver followed a similar pattern and rallied over 50 cents from its lows after dropping over 30 cents at the New York open. Full Story
Gold closed the week out at $602.90 (continuous contract) for a weekly gain of $10.20 or +1.72%. It closed the week out on its weekly high. As a matter of fact it was the highest closing price since September 8, 2006 – or in the last 6 weeks.
A lot of technical damage was done during the recent violent decline. It takes time to repair the damage. There exists a lot of overhead supply and resistance that has to gradually be worked off. Day by day you can see it being worked off. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 24 October, 2006
Paul Volcker is often given credit for ending the inflation that ravaged the US economy during the 1970s, and yet the following chart shows that there was a sharp INCREASE in the year-over-year M2 growth rate (the inflation rate) during the first 4 years of his tenure as Fed Chairman. It's therefore not true that Volcker ended the inflation, which begs the question: why is he generally given credit for doing so? Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 24 October, 2006
Trading in foreign exchange is akin to judging a reverse beauty contest. The trick is to buy the “least ugly” currency at the right time. Nearly every central bank is engaging in some sort of manipulation of its currency, from outright intervention in the marketplace, such as in Brazil and China, to pumping up the money supply to inflate local stock markets, such as in Australia, China, England, the Euro zone, and India. Other central banks engage in “verbal jawboning” to keep traders in check. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 24 October, 2006
We’ve been monitoring Gold’s vital signs very closely lately, since that may be the only way an investor could hope to jump back in without fear of getting maimed. Although my intermediate-term forecast calls for a potentially important low at $513, we remain open to the possibility that the turn could occur from higher levels. Right around here, perhaps? Maybe. Full Story
Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The intermediate trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. The gap lower price action on the day session chart is a bearish indicator for trend. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The next upside target is 591.4. The next area of resistance is around 586.4 and 591.4, while 1st support hits today at 579.4 and below there at 577.5. Full Story
Gold remained near unchanged to slightly lower in Asia, steadily fell off throughout trade in London and New York, and closed just off its low with a loss of 2.29%. Silver followed a similar pattern and lost 2.61%. Full Story
On Friday, gold prices slid back below $600 and that slide continued over the weekend, providing a large opening gap this morning. Crude oil prices provided all the necessary weakness to pull out support from under gold. Only two trading sessions after OPEC announced it would cut actual oil production by 1.2 million barrels, prices plunged under a price floor at $59 a barrel. Full Story
After reading how Mr. Frank Veneroso is bearish on silver and how he believes supply is going to expand, I decided to check silver production in 2006 versus the previous two years. The Silver Institute compiles a list of the 20 top silver producers each year. I have been able to find the 1st 6 month or 9 month production results of 11 of these companies. These results were obtained from the company’s web sites, quarterly financial statements or from response to my emails. Full Story
Somehow we have to bring together a number of thoughts into one investment view. North Korea is not going to willingly give up its nukes, and no one can take them away from them without causing some kind of annoying disturbance. FOMC meets next week on U.S. interest rates. This event is one of those where what they do is not as important as what they say. In 17 days the U.S. election occurs. Never in history has one party been so committed to repeatedly shooting itself in the foot. Those related but separate events will likely influence all investment values. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster – Global Watch - 23 October, 2006
There’s a great deal of talk about slowing economic growth in China. We heard this talk last year too. Indeed the incredible growth in China has gone on so far for 15 years, so shouldn’t it slow? So far no! We have not seen a slowing down, ‘soft landing’ or anything but a firm hand on the tiller of growth by the Chinese Central government keeping momentum up around 10% and seeking to rein in only excesses. They are reasonably concerned that the growth should be maintainable in the long-term. Excesses serve no one, least of all China. Full Story
The market back below the 40-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down. A positive indicator was given with the upside crossover of the 9 and 18 bar moving average. Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market's close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next upside objective is 605.8. The next area of resistance is around 600.5 and 605.8, while 1st support hits today at 592.3 and below there at 589.3. Full Story
It all boils down to crude oil and the US dollar for gold and silver. Physical demand for jewellery and gifts from Asia will reduce as Diwali and Eid festivals end. Full Story
Ever since September 14 I’m pointing out a major ‘BUY’ opportunity for gold and its shares would be upon us but still no ‘BUY ‘signal has been triggered. Some readers wonder if I had been too optimistic and are getting impatient since the gold shares are getting nowhere these days. I started notifying our members on this up-coming major ‘buy’ based on the relative gold charts since the relative gold charts nailed every single major bottom since the bull market in gold began in April 2001. Full Story
Analyses based on annual supply and demand of gold appear on a daily basis, whether posted to gold web sites or in the financial media, many of them by the most respected analysts of gold mining shares. These articles typically show an imbalance between supply and demand, suggesting that there is a gold supply deficit. From there, the conclusion follows that a much higher gold price is required in order to bring supply and demand into balance. Full Story
We have made 40% profits on trading GLD so far this year, and part of that success is due to the fact that we ignore the noise and focus only on price action. We do not hold long or short hoping for some of those outlandish price targets to be reached some time in the future. We live and trade the now, and gold is currently struggling at the $600 level. If support holds, we may see a 10 to 15% profit potential from our current set up. If support fails, we are testing the June low and the longer time frame will come into play. We follow price action and will go with the flow, money flow that is. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 22 October, 2006
Gold at $900 an ounce in 2007? That's what one well-known forecaster predicted at the Committee for Monetary Research and Education's annual fall dinner on Thursday in New York City, and he made a pretty persuasive case. Paul Van Eeden's argument was all the more compelling because it was crafted strictly by-the-numbers. My own forecast has been calling for a correction to as low as $513 before bullion prices are likely to move significantly higher. Although my scenario would turn bullish if December Gold were to close decisively above $603 for at least a few days, I've maintained a somewhat gloomy bias since May, partly out of caution. Full Story
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