By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research - 27 December, 2019
The massive stock-market gains mostly came soon after these key Fed decisions. In a year where US corporate earnings shrank and the US-China trade war really intensified, it was epic extreme Fed easing that levitated the stock markets. 2020 will look way different since the Fed is running out of room to keep cutting. Ultimately the Fed-spawned bubble valuations will overpower the Fed’s egregious market distortions. Full Story
By: Avi Gilburt, Elliott Wave Trader - 27 December, 2019
For now, it seems we still will need to have a bit more patience, even if the markets do break out to complete their respective 5-wave structures off the recently lows. We will still likely need another multi-week (and maybe as long as multi-month) 2nd wave pullback before the fireworks for 2020 are seen. That is the set up for which I am being patient when it comes to trading this market with leverage. Until then, I have no reason to turn overly aggressive. And, most importantly, until then, I suggest we all maintain a modicum of patience. Full Story
Let’s try to figure out what is real and what is an illusion as the machines run the holiday muted show. Last year the market crash was not real. This year the market rally?? For most of this year I’ve been able to balance gold and silver mining positions against broad stock market positions as they were contrary or anti each other in a year-long Festivus of sound portfolio management.
Now however, at the doorway to 2020, it gets more interesting… and challenging. Full Story
Traders will start taking positions for January. January will be the real test for gold and silver bulls. Signing of trade deal, Brexit, various US jobs numbers and Chinese demand and Chinese economic growth around the Chinese New Year. Bonds can also be a surprise winner if gold and silver sell off in January. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 26 December, 2019
Silver is expected to begin the next decade newly burnished, through a combination of higher industrial and investment demand, and tightened supply owing to mine production issues and output cuts.
As December winds down and precious metals trade volumes dwindle, market analysts including us at Ahead of the Herd are crunching the numbers from 2019 and looking ahead to what the New Year might bring. Full Story
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 26 December, 2019
Massive upside breakouts are taking place across the precious metals sector. Many mining stocks, especially silver-oriented, are skyrocketing.
How is it possible that silver stocks are ripping to one fresh new high after another, leaving bullion behind? Well, there is commercial trader bullion shorting activity on the COMEX. Money managers are buying silver stocks, not COMEX contracts, and it doesn’t take much money flowing into these stocks to push them dramatically higher.
A COMEX silver price surge is coming though, because there are two big inflationary forces at play. First, the easing of trade tensions is opening the door for global growth in the late stage of the business cycle. That’s incredibly inflationary. Wage growth and consumer spending growth in China (Consumer spending growth is above 20% in some major Chinese cities now) is going to push prices higher in both China and the West. This growth-oriented inflation can be called “good inflation”.
Europeans are buying physical gold. Almost every central bank has increased reserves this year and have stated a desire to continue with the same in 2020. The pace of rise of gold and silver will vary in 2020. But overall trend will be bullish next year. Crude oil will be on fire if it rises for a week. Nymex crude oil can easily break past $70 if it manages to trade over $61 for a week. Copper and industrial metals should rise on higher Chinese demand before the Chinese New Year towards end January. Full Story
Russia has taken steps to potentially limit gold exploration, which could be positive for the gold price with tighter supply. The Natural Resources Ministry will not raise the threshold for deeming a gold field strategic, leaving the number at 50 tons. Bloomberg reports that the Russian government can seize a gold mining license for a deposit from a company if exploration shows reserve exceed 50 tons – this should limit exploration by non-Russian companies. Australia hopes to dethrone China as the world’s top gold producer in 2019. Currently in the number two spot, Australia has seen gold production increase from 302 tons in 2017 to 322 tons in 2018, and expects to mine 337 tons by year end. Full Story
Gold and silver are bullish at the moment and can rise further. The more the rise, the more will be short covering and increase in long positions. This a golden Christmas for gold bulls but not so golden Christmas for the masses. Central bank are eating away are hard earned by using inflation as a policy measures for decision making. Inflation is nothing but price rise. Salaries are stable for most this year, income of small and tiny labor intensive business have reduced. Year-on-year most of the people have had a negative real income. Full Story
Gold is money. Gold has been used as the currency of choice for almost three millenniums. The earliest known gold coins were seen in 560 BC after they were able to separate gold from silver. Both gold and silver circulated as the currency of choice before the introduction of paper money. With the end of Bretton Woods in August 1971, the world was taken off the gold standard and since then fiat currencies have been the currency of choice. Unlike gold, however, fiat currencies are not money as they are not backed by anything except a promise to pay—in other words, credit.
Everything else is credit. Credit goes back even further to Sumer, 3500 BC. Loans were used for agricultural purposes. The Code of Hammurabi formalized in Babylon in 1800 BC established interest rates. During Roman times credit was documented on paper known as “nomina facit, negotium conficit,” meaning “he uses credit to complete the purchase.”
Today 92% of currency is digital and we live in a world of debt. Money is just flashes on a computer screen. But what if all the power went down? And what if someone were able to make all records disappear? Would the man who had gold now be king? Neither digital money nor, for that matter, fiat currencies (i.e., paper money) has intrinsic value. Full Story
Gold is churning, not doing a whole lot of damage, except to gold investors' mental state. We are now 3 1/2 months into the sideways churn. A market bouncing back and forth from overbought and oversold...
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 23 December, 2019
The second encouraging sign for those who faded the rally was a top in the E-Mini S&Ps at 3229.50 that missed the Hidden Pivot rally target shown in the chart by a single tick. It had been sent out to subscribers the night before. Will these coinciding, fleeting peaks mark an important peak for the stock market? We could find out soon if shares head south on Monday and the decline gains momentum as the holiday-shortened week wears on. But even if new record highs are coming, a correction at this point would be constructive, if only to cool a buying fever that has driven equity prices much higher without any corresponding growth in earnings. Full Story
Look for signs of profit taking in all metals and energies as traders leave for Christmas and New Year vacations. China will lower trade tariff on a host of products ranging from pork to some type of semi-conductor. Gold and silver should fall as a result of Chinese move. Right now gold and silver are firm due to Trump and his impeachment. But they will be vulnerable to sharp correction any time. Full Story
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