By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 28 February, 2020
showing a 186^04 target for T-Bond futures that would equates to a rate on the 30-yer of 1.58%. That would be quite a slide from the current rate of 1.78%, and it suggests that the recession threat that everyone will be debating in the months ahead is already baked in the cake. By all means, jot those numbers down and share them with financial advisor. If he goes all-in on Treasury paper, I predict that you'll both sleep better than investors who are in stocks up to their eyeballs. Full Story
Gold should start another wave of rise. Silver will now behave like a precious metals and not an industrial metal. Even USA is preparing for corona virus outbreak. Lack of demand from global tourism industry should result in crude oil prices sliding. Next week will be a big week for bulls and bears of gold. If economic data releases wins then gold prices will correct more. If corona virus wins then gold prices will break $1700. Full Story
The market crash called for on the site on the 15th, right before it started, is now going full bore, and in this update we are going to consider the short-term outlook, especially insofar as it impacts upon our Tech sector puts, and also the grim longer-term outlook.
A full-on “in your face” catalyst for the crash has arrived in the form of the Covid-19 or coronavirus, which has already brought the Chinese economy to a virtual standstill, thus disrupting global supply chains, and now threatens to wreak havoc elsewhere, not least in the United States itself. The “everything bubble” had reached incredible extremes and this virus crisis catalyst was just what was required to burst it, and now it’s started no amount of Central Bank money pumping or wild promises will stop it. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 26 February, 2020
As we can see, gold has broken above the important $1,550-$1,560 level, which will likely be the new support level. Several months ago, I thought we could see gold retrace back down to the $1,360 support area, but it looks like the market had other plans. No complaint here whatsoever.
The gold price could correct lower, or move sideways, but as the global supply chain contagion continues to spread, I believe we are going to see the price move higher. So, the next important level for gold is $1,800. But, when gold finally goes above the all-time high of $1,900, it’s OFF TO THE RACES. Full Story
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 25 February, 2020
GDXJ is called a junior gold stocks ETF, but it’s mainly comprised of intermediate producers, making it an ideal investment vehicle for a lot of gold bugs.
A weekly close over $53 would target the $90 price zone. Short-term traders can play it with JNUG, and investors can buy the ETF and/or some of its component stocks.
Like GDX, GDXJ is crushing the Dow. A breakout over $53 would probably create a scenario where a GDXJ elephant is stomping on a rancid US stock market tomato… but really, that’s already happening now! Full Story
Silver has not risen at all. Just trade in the technical in silver. Corrections in gold are healthy. There are lots of US economic data next week. US various February jobs report will be there next week. Correction or profit booking in gold and silver will be there. Corrections will be healthy to ensure that the current rally in gold is a sustainable one. A continued one way rise will imply a boom-bust scenario for gold. Full Story
Is “irrational exuberance” back? Records keep falling. Maybe this time it is different. But Friday steadied the market with a downdraft as some economic numbers came in on the low side. And COVID-19 cases are jumping outside China catching many by surprise. Now in 33 countries. Our recession indicator spread (page 18) is sliding again and the 3m-10 spread has turned negative. Capital flight has been driving the market pushing the U.S. dollar up and money flowing into U.S. bonds and the U.S. stock market. But money flowing into gold as well despite the jump in the U.S. dollar. Then on Friday the U.S. dollar dropped sharply and gold soared. Gold fast approaching our targets and could hit $1,700 this week. Too fast of a move has our fingers on the “take profits” button.
Our Chart of the Week (page 6) looks at a rather interesting case of possible symmetry in the markets. We look at the NASDAQ of 1998-2000 and compare it with the NASDAQ of 2018-present.
Could a top be in the markets given the sharp sell-off on Friday? Still needs confirmation but negative divergences abound as we note in a few charts. In addition to being designed to allocate to cash in the event of a sustained market decline, the Canadian Dividend Strategy provides downside protection with income-paying investments such as Granite Real Estate Investment Trust yielding a dividend of 3.89%.*
Oh and dare we mention President Trump wants another round of tax cuts and other stimulus with stock markets at record highs and unemployment at 50 year lows. Fuel for the fire. Full Story
Citigroup continues to update its bullish forecast for gold, reports CNBC. The firm said in a note on Wednesday that it believes market jitters will prompt invests to flee to safe haven assets, which could push gold prices to $1,700 an ounce in the next six to 12 months and $2,000 in the next 12 to 24 months. Ed Morse, lead analyst of the report, says “gold should perform as a convex macro asset market hedge, resilient during ongoing risk market rallies but a better hedge during sell-offs and volatility spikes.” Full Story
So what now? – think it’s gone too far, too fast? Certainly not – the 10-year chart for GDX shows that it hasn’t even broken out of its giant base pattern yet, so this thing is just getting started. Once GDX breaks above the upper boundary of the pattern, which is at about $31, i.e. a shade above where it is now, gold and silver stocks are going to soar, so if you haven’t boarded the train, you’d better get your act together PDQ. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 24 February, 2020
Now that we are hearing stories about the viral threat of superspreaders, of deepening economic paralysis around the world, and how it could take 18 months to produce a vaccine, investors’ show of bravado in recent weeks seems to have melted away. Shares got hit across-the-board on Thursday and Friday, and if investors know what’s good for them they’ll pound the bejeezus out of them this week. Although it’s difficult to estimate how much selling will be necessary to discount some worst-case possibilities, including a sharp global downturn, it was at least a step in the right direction for traders to belatedly acknowledge with the hesitant, two-day selloff that they simply don’t know how things will play out. It is frequently said of investors that they fear uncertainty more than anything else, and so the weakness that ended the week would have been a comfort to those who have wondered when even a faint sign of rationality would emerge on Wall Street. Full Story
Aside from corona virus, economic data releases will need to be closely watched. Eurozone has not recovered from an economic recession. Corona virus will only delay the chances of an economic recovery. Central banks are just using tools of interest rate changes and increasing money supply. Bond yields in Eurozone are near zero. European central bank (ECB) has to move away from tried and tested monetary tools to something else to quicken the growth. Euro can fall more against the US dollar this week. Full Story
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