Price action from the three gold charts of the year speak loud and clear. All three have now broken out to historic highs, with absolutely no overhead resistance. You could say the sky is the limit, but please refrain from saying “to da moon”. Last time when the “to da moon” crowd was making noises, it was the beginning of a two year correction in gold stocks. (Dec 2003) So, the question is, where do we go from here? Frankly my dear, I don’t know and I don’t care. We have a bull market, trend is up, pick a spot, join the party. Full Story
The spot gold market trades this unallocated gold. After a spot gold deal there is a separate and optional transaction called an EFP (Exchange For Physical) where the customer converts an entitlement into actual bars. Banks generally save the cost of the EFP. They deal unallocated gold in large sizes both between themselves, and with their professional customers, and this neither requires a physical settlement nor results in the buyer becoming a legal owner of the gold traded. Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 28 April, 2006
Uranium has been getting exposure on many different fronts recently. If you’ve been following the hoopla in Iran, you may recall the latest television footage showing a room full of elated Iranian scientists jumping for joy as though Iran’s soccer team won the World Cup. With a zoom of the lens though it was apparent the excitement was focused on a couple of scientists who were gripping vials of what looked like rock salt. Full Story
Long-term subscribers are already aware of a resource market phenomenon broadly referred to as the "quiet season," which we here at Casey Research tend to view as the "Shopping Season." You also might call it summer. As you can see in Chart A, which summarizes gold's monthly price moves over the past 30 years, the yellow metal typically shows weakness from February to April, rallies in May, then heads down for summer. In August, gold typically begins to rebound and moves up pretty much for the rest of the year. Of course, this is an average pattern, not an invariable one. In 10 years out of the last 30, gold dropped in the fourth quarter. Full Story
In the previous commentary entitled "A new age of perpetually high oil/gas prices?" we examined some of the factors behind the fuel price spike and how it is being carefully managed by the oil oligopoly. In this installment we’ll look at how violence in the Middle East and elsewhere is contributing to the rising oil price trend and also the connection between oil and the U.S. dollar. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 28 April, 2006
Gold has held the lower $600 levels, a level higher than expected. It appeared at first that it would reach $625 then pullback to bounce off +$605, but no it cleared all barriers to hit $641 before falling back to +$620. It has now consolidated at these levels for a short while before climbing back through $630 at the time of writing. The market is still blinking in amazement in rarified air around these prices. But despite what ones logic says, these prices are real and appear to be holding. So where now? Full Story
While I cannot give you an ironclad guarantee we’ll see a major stock-market top within the next few days, the two charts below explain why we shouldn’t be too eager to bet against it. The first comes from Peter Eliades of Stockmarket Cycles, and it shows the S&P 500 bumping up against the ceiling of a channel that has taken more than seven years to form. The channel is defined by three major highs and lows, meaning the downtrend being measured is not a mere figment of some bearish technician’s imagination. Full Story
The rally brought the market to a new contract high. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The near-term upside objective is at 655.6. The next area of resistance is around 645.9 and 655.6, while 1st support hits today at 626.7 and below there at 617.3. Full Story
Gold was all over the map in the last 24 hours. It fell near $635 in Asia, rose over $640 in early London trade, fell to under $630 by the New York open, and rose back above $640 in midmorning New York trade, but it then fell off into the close and ended a bit under $635 to fall from yesterday’s 25 year closing high. Silver followed a similar rollercoaster ride. It fell to as low as $12.20 and rose to as high as over $13, but it ultimately ended with a 2.58% loss at $12.47. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 27 April, 2006
The SEC has Cleared the Barclays Silver ETF (Exchange Traded Fund). The ETF will allow investors to buy silver as easily as they buy stocks, and the trading symbol on the AMEX should be SLV, and could start trading as early as tomorrow, or by the end of next week. Full Story
A series of disparate events have coalesced that have set the stage for generational price spikes in not one, not two, but in three major metals. For those who have steadfastly held their gold and silver positions through the difficult, trying and heart-wrenching past five plus years, it appears that our foresight and suffering will soon be rewarded. Similarly, for those who early recognized the explosive potential of the copper market, they too are participants in what I believe will be viewed as an historic short squeeze. Full Story
By: Ceri Shepherd, Trend Investor - 27 April, 2006
When countries were back on the Gold standard it simply meant that money could not be printed at will by bankers or politicians, if the Gold to back this printing did not exist. The principle role of Gold was discipline. Nowadays none of the world’s major currencies are backed by Gold which means an unending stream of new money can and will be printed. The world is an unpredictable place but you can guarantee that Central Bankers will make certain that the paper money you hold as savings today will have a lot less purchasing power 1 year from now ,that is absolutely guaranteed. Full Story
I’ve been looking for an excuse to visit the Big Apple when Central Park is in full bloom this May, and here it is: If June Gold doesn’t surge to at least 665.50 by mid-May, look for me in Times Square dancing the hula in a grass skirt. Since a run-up to the target looks like as close to a sure thing as anything I’ve ever beheld on a 15-minute chart, I may have to come up with another reason to make the trip to Gotham. Full Story
A bullish signal was given with an upside crossover of the daily stochastics. Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The near-term upside target is at 651.3. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 647.9 and 651.3, while 1st support hits today at 636.1 and below there at 627.6. Full Story
Gold remained near $630 in Asia before it moved a couple dollars higher in London, but it then fell back under $630 at the New York open. Any losses were short-lived, however, as gold soon jumped above $635 and then made its way near $640 by the close to end over 1% higher at a new 25 year closing high. Silver gained over 20 cents in Asia to over $12.75 before it fell off a bit in London and then dropped at the New York open to find around 20 cent losses, but it then gained throughout the rest of trade in New York and ended with a gain of more than 2%. Full Story
Daily stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside break especially if near term support is penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next downside objective is now at 623.9. The next area of resistance is around 639.1 and 643.4, while 1st support hits today at 629.3 and below there at 623.9. Full Story
Gold traded between $620 and $625 in Asia and jumped up to trade between $625 and $630 in London before it jumped up near $635 in morning New York trade, but it then fell back off below $630 ahead of a slight rally into the close that brought it back above $630 to get with in $1.60 of its 25 year closing high set last Wednesday. Silver gained about 20 cents in Asia, added another 40 cents in London, and added still more in New York to end near its highs with a gain of more than 6%. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 25 April, 2006
Over the past year the gold price has risen strongly in terms of all major currencies. But why? Is it because the markets have become far more worried about inflation? Or, perhaps, because gold is being re-monetised in the eyes of investors, that is, because gold's monetary premium is increasing? As far as we can tell, the rise in the gold price has very little to do with either a pronounced increase in inflation fears or the re-monetisation of the yellow metal in the eyes of investors. Full Story
For most of this month, the physical prices of gold and silver have been rising nearly every day, yet the mining stocks have been stagnating and in some cases falling. What gives? Over the last 3 months, the operational leverage that mining stocks are supposed to provide has not been seen. Full Story
Stocks are not cheap by any measure, but as you can see in the attached, they likely still have a ways to go in relation to inflation adjusted extremes, meaning both inflation and rising prices should be with us for sometime yet. This realization should become evident in viewing Figures 1 and 2 in the attached above. At the same time however, and an understanding embedded in lessons offered when measuring relative asset valuations against gold during inflationary times, if one’s portfolio is not properly structured during circumstances like these, a slow grinding ascent in the stock market will not mean you are keeping pace with future purchasing power requirements. Full Story
Momentum studies trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce lower price action. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The next downside target is 615.6. The next area of resistance is around 628.8 and 635.3, while 1st support hits today at 619.0 and below there at 615.6. Full Story
Gold jumped over $635 at the open in Asia, but it soon fell to under $625 before a rebound brought it back near unchanged by the open in London. Gold initially remained near unchanged in London, but it then began to fall in later London trade and continued to fall in early New York trade. After briefly dropping under $620, gold then rebounded to above $625, but it then fell back off into the close and ended near its lows with about a 2% loss. Silver followed a similar rollercoaster ride to gold in Asia and London, but it was unable to find a rebound in New York and steadily fell off throughout trade to end with a near 9% loss of over a dollar. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 24 April, 2006
We are receiving reports that there is a change in the pattern of gold buying in India as India's appetite for gold bars is rising at a faster rate than the growth in jewellery, according to the President of the Bombay Bullion Association. We have mentioned the general increase in the wealth of the Indian middle class who also view gold as a good investment, which it has proved for all these ones. Full Story
By: Joe Ferrazzano, Trade The Cycles - 24 April, 2006
HUI, NEM, and the XAU's monthly upcycle (since 3-10-06) Wave 5 short term upcycle peaked on Wednesday 4-19 (see 1 year charts), which indicates that the monthly upcycle probably peaked on 4-19-06. Based on the major upcycle trendlines (see 1 year charts) the monthly cycle low target ranges are 305-320 for HUI, 49-52 for NEM, and 129-135 for the XAU. Keep in mind it's very likely that HUI/NEM/XAU's correction/monthly downcycle (the down portion of the monthly cycle) will have an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern, with each wave probably lasting about 3 to 5 days. Full Story
Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next downside target is now at 619.7. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 641.9 and 645.4, while 1st support hits today at 629.1 and below there at 619.7. Full Story
Gold fell near $610 in Asia but it then rallied in London and traded on either side of $620 to come into New York just slightly lower from Thursday’s close. Gold soon jumped above $625 before falling back off a bit, but it then rallied into the close and cut nearly all of its losses from Thursday to end just 20 cents from its 25 year closing high made on Wednesday. Full Story
The most powerful bull markets are invariably punctuated from beginning to end by wrenching spasms. Were it otherwise, we could all simply load up on bullion assets, quit our day jobs and go fishing as we watch our net wealth grow, day by day, along with soaring mining-share valuations. Would that it were so easy. More typical is that we will get on board at just the wrong time, as prices go into a steep corrective dive; we’ll take profits nowhere near the top, but rather in the midst of a horrific selloff; and we will retire at 70, not 50, like so many other erstwhile investment geniuses. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, New Era Investor - 23 April, 2006
But what can that current debate about oil teach us about gold? Gold, like oil, has been continuously rising in price for five years. Admittedly, its performance has been poor compared to oil, but does this price mechanism also indicate the mining equivalent of reducing "excess spare capacity" and is it also a prelude to "Peak Gold"? My conclusions led me to believe that these two commodities are similar in terms of a Hubbert's Peak analysis and in terms of the effects of a peak in global production. Full Story
The mainstream news media is floating yet another trial balloon before the American people, this one aimed at testing their collective response to idea of permanently high oil and gas prices. Should Americans react with the ambivalence that has become all to common in recent years, the oil oligopoly will have take this as an "all clear" sign and will press forward with their campaign to increase profits through raising the oil price. Full Story
Giving gold the edge for the beginning of next week is the likelihood of a sharp dollar drop as the week begins. The US$ has now taken out its previous swing low of mid-January. Next target is 86, and then 83. It could get there in a hurry. That monetary crisis element alone gives the nod to gold to fare better than silver in the near term. Full Story
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