Gold rose close to $640 in early Asian trade but quickly fell back near $630 heading into London which took the price near $625 by the New York open. Gold then quickly rebounded to above $635 and remained near its highs into the close to end with a gain of 0.30%. Silver traded in a relatively tight range on either side of unchanged throughout trade in Asia, London, and New York and ended near the low of that range with a loss of 0.35%. Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence - 28 July, 2006
Slowly but surely, a shift of capital continues in the financial markets. As investors diversify away from the underperforming general stock and bond markets, commodities are quickly becoming one of the go-to investment classes. Full Story
There are a lot of conflicting opinions being bandied about regarding the outlook for Precious Metals prices, as many readers will no doubt be aware, and when this occurs, it is usually a symptom of a trading range situation. At a time like this we need to stand back and look at the big picture. We will therefore start by considering the very long-term gold chart that goes way back to the early 1970’s, and thus includes two bull markets, the great 70’s bull market and the current one. Full Story
The arguments pertaining to gold apply to a large extent to silver too, where this year’s sharp runup towards $15 certainly only ranks as a “Spikelet” in comparison to the monstrous “Hunt Brothers” superspike of 1979, which had opportunists everywhere rushing to the furnace with Aunt Maud’s treasured silver heirlooms to take advantage of the price rocketing towards $40, which, inflation adjusted, was vastly in excess of the recent peak. Full Story
A negative indicator was given with the downside crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average. Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Follow through buying looks likely if the market can hold yesterday's gap on the day session chart. Full Story
Gold rose near $630 in Asia and climbed near $635 in London before it jumped above $640 in midmorning New York trade. It then steadily fell off a bit into the close, but it still ended with a gain of 1.87%. Silver steadily rose in Asia and London to about $11.20 by the open in New York which took the price over $11.40 before it fell of a bit, but it still ended with a gain of 2.91%. Full Story
We awoke on Monday morning to HCA being bought by a private equity group. Somehow that and Israeli not launching a full scale invasion of Lebanon caused the U.S. equity market to explode upward. Seems like the last time that happened the NASDAQ Composite shortly afterwards went to a new cycle low. That aside, this HCA transaction, void of any apparent economic benefits, seems indicative of the late stages of a speculative cycle and a near panic reach for returns in the paper asset markets. Full Story
Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next downside target is now at 610.4. The next area of resistance is around 626.6 and 629.3, while 1st support hits today at 617.2 and below there at 610.4. Full Story
Gold and silver rise after envoys meeting in Rome failed to agree on the terms of a cease-fire or who would participate in an international force for Lebanon. Full Story
Gold dipped near $615 in Asia before it rebounded to trade near unchanged in London and early New York trade, but it then dropped to $613.30 a little after 10AM EST ahead of a rally into the close which resulted in a close near the high of the session with a gain of 0.75%. Silver traded slightly lower in Asia, near unchanged in London, and then rallied throughout most of trade in New York to end with a gain of 1.20%. At the time of writing, both metals have added about an additional 0.5% gain to their close in reaction to the release of the fed’s Beige Book. Full Story
Many investors wonder what the consequence is with a damaged compass for guidance in the economic seas. Assets must be granted a premium benefit in return for risk to capital. First, you see improper risk reward for bonds against erosion of capital via price inflation, which is much higher than regarded. Interest rates are not high enough, surely not versus the higher than stated price inflation. The most important component to a debt soaked USEconomy is clearly borrowing costs. Full Story
The most recent Commitments of Traders Report (COT) indicates no real change in silver, but some pretty notable changes in gold, especially if you extrapolate from the Tuesday cut-off. In gold, it appears the tech funds were lured onto the long side on the big recent rally and whipped out on the more recent decline into Monday, July 24. As such, gold now appears washed out to the downside. Full Story
The cross over and close above the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend has turned up. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are taken out. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next downside objective is now at 604.7. The next area of resistance is around 624.2 and 629.6, while 1st support hits today at 611.8 and below there at 604.7. Full Story
Gold and silver are consolidating at the moment. Expectations of an early end to the Israel Lebanon clashes resulted in marginally lower gold, silver and crude oil prices. Copper rose after a potential labour strike in worlds biggest mine Escondida. Full Story
Gold rose about $5 in Asia and traded at around $620 in London before it fell off throughout most of morning trade in New York to as low as $609.40 at one point, but it then rebounded into the close and ended 0.70% higher on the day. Silver rose in Asia and London to over $11 by early trade in New York before it also fell off throughout most of the rest of morning New York trade to fall to as low as $10.75, but it too was able to rebound into the close to end 0.37% higher on the day. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor – Global Money Trends Magazine - 25 July, 2006
Fed chief Ben Bernanke left traders guessing about the central bank’s next move on interest rates after his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on July 19th. The Fed could call for an immediate cease-fire at 5.25% with enough monetary tightening already in the pipeline, or it could cap the two-year rate hike campaign at 5.50%, to defend the US dollar and keep global commodity prices in check. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 25 July, 2006
Not surprisingly and not coincidentally, the sharp downturn in silver/gold over the past three months has occurred alongside a sharp reduction in the general enthusiasm for equities. At this stage, however, the declines in both the US stock market (as represented by the NYA) and the silver/gold ratio don't appear to be much worse than the declines that occurred during the first half of 2004. In particular, a case could be made that both silver/gold and the NYA are still in the upward trends that began during 2002-2003. Full Story
The market back below the 40-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The gap down on the day session chart is bearish with more selling pressure possible today. Full Story
Gold fell to trade near $615 in Asia and London before it fell even further in morning New York trade to as low as $601.60 at one point, but it then rallied into the close and cut nearly two-thirds of its losses to end with a loss of just 1.10%. Silver traded slightly lower in Asia and mostly slightly higher in London before it fell off in morning New York trade, but it also rallied into the close and ended near its highs with a 0.56% gain on the day. Full Story
The fact that Gold Stocks fell whilst Physical Gold rose does not surprise or worry me at all. It is quite common that during an advance Gold Stocks get ahead of Physical. This can result in Physical ‘catching up’ after gold stocks have topped out - and we see this divergent behavior. However, the correlation with the stock market is the Million Dollar Question. Yes, Gold Stocks are equities and yes, they will be influenced by the broader stock market. But fundamentally Gold Stocks are counter cyclical because the product they mine moves in an inverse relationship to paper assets. Full Story
There are two main talking points in the market this week. First the Israel / Hezbollah war and second the volatility of the gold market. I must admit to a wry smile when various TV commentators believe that it will be a short war. Come on, it has been going for 5000 years and there is no sign of an end. The Israelites and the Hittites went at it, then Alexander and Darius confronted each other, the Crusaders and Saladin locked horns. The whole region has been a hot bed of continuous battles for centuries. Full Story
Attention: As an analyst and a trader, my job is to analyze and trade. But I have learned to differentiate between the two. I trade on my signals and set ups, not my analysis. Analysis provides the road map so we know where we are going. Signals and set ups are the traffic lights, we must obey them in order to navigate safely. Knowing the average trader having trouble donning on two hats, I will make every effort to separate my analysis from my signals in all of my commentary going forward. Full Story
With speculative interest in the oil and gas stocks running high and with many oil and gas companies due to release second quarter earnings, many traders and investors are wondering what the coming weeks and months will hold for the energy group. Another consideration is the coming 4-year cycle, due to bottom around September 1, and the possible impact it could have on prices. Full Story
Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The close under the 18-day moving average indicates the intermediate-term trend could be turning down. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The next downside objective is now at 601.6. The next area of resistance is around 631.2 and 645.6, while 1st support hits today at 609.2 and below there at 601.6. Full Story
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