The Fed’s monetary fire hose that injected trillions of dollars of freshly-conjured money into the markets for years will soon start sucking that capital back out. As the Fed’s QE giveth, the Fed’s QT taketh away. These QE-inflated stock markets are in serious trouble under QT, and the FOMC might not even care for political reasons. But even if it does, stopping QT after it begins could crush confidence accelerating the selling. Full Story
Moreover, palladium has a weaker correlation with gold. It suggests that investors debating about platinum versus palladium should prefer the latter metal – financial analysis confirms our previous conclusions on the fundamentals of both white metals. Given the retreat of diesel technology in the automotive sector, palladium should outperform platinum in the long-run. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 28 July, 2017
The main event in the gold market yesterday was the return of U.S. investors to physical buying of gold. As you have seen, the selloff of over 71 tonnes of gold recently from the SPDR gold ETF, while the gold price was rising was a failed exercise, as it did not lower the gold price. Indeed we are certain that the gold sold is now on its way to Shanghai via Switzerland. It is in the nature of U.S. investors to ‘buy on the rise’, so we are watching to see if the U.S. bears attack again, or has their ammunition been spent and they are turning long of physical gold. We do expect their actions now to have a direct bearing on the gold price. Full Story
– Shrinkflation has hit 2,500 products in five years – Not just chocolate bars that are shrinking – Toilet rolls, coffee, fruit juice and many other goods – Effects of shrinkflation been seen for “good number of years” – Consumer Association of Ireland – Shrinkflation is stealth inflation, form of financial fraud – Punishes vulnerable working and middle classes – Gold is hedge against inflation and shrinkflation Full Story
In after-hours trading the futures looked like an easy bet to reach the 1267.60 target shown, but we should expect buyers to do a little better than that if this rally is going to get legs. Full Story
Why cautiously bullish? During the long Bear from the secondary high in 2012, almost every Failed Gold Trading Cycle topped on day 10 or earlier. There were a couple that topped on day 11 and one on day 12 as I recall but day 12 was the longest uptrend we saw into a failed Trading Cycle. Full Story
– ‘Mother of all debt bubbles’ keeps gold in focus – Global debt alert: At all time high of astronomical $217 T – India imports “phenomenal” 525 tons in first half of 2017 – Record investment demand – ETPs record $245B in H1, 17 – Investors, savers should diversify into “safe haven” gold – Gold good ‘store of value’ in coming economic contraction Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 27 July, 2017
The reaction to the Fed’s inaction not just on rates but on the timing of the contraction of the Fed’s Balance Sheet, interrupted the gold price relationship between global markets. New York closed at the same level as Shanghai yesterday, but London opened at just $2.50 below Shanghai’s trading level this morning. The price differentials between the global markets were nearly eliminated on the back of the Fed’s inaction. We look today to see just how global markets interact and to see if they are really narrowing their differences. Full Story
Short covering and renewed building of long positions will be there in gold and silver if they continue to rise today and tomorrow. If gold rises after the US July nonfarm payrolls (on 4th August) then I expect it to rise to $1508.10 before the end of this quarter. Short term gold and silver are bullish. Full Story
Conclusion: the latest extremely bullish COT charts are not negated by the dollar being oversold here and some of its indicators looking positive. The bigger picture is that the dollar may be headed for a breakdown and severe decline or even a crash. Full Story
So although I am looking for a local bottom and a near term bounce on the DXY, unless and until we are able to see a strong move back up through the 97.73 level, the DXY still likely has some unfinished business to the downside prior to once again revisiting those January highs. Full Story
Summing up, the implications of the (lack of) action in mining stocks in the previous days and their decline yesterday are bearish. In fact, yesterday’s decline theoretically shouldn’t have taken place as no decline was seen either in either gold or the main stock indices. Yet, it was seen and it serves as a strong bearish confirmation of multiple other medium-term bearish signals that we’ve been discussing in our alerts. The medium-term outlook remains bearish and any strength here – if we see it at all – is likely to be only temporary. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 25 July, 2017
In addition Chinese demand and the new London based LME precious arbitrage market with Hong Kong is letting London feel Chinese demand directly, in addition to the big banks in China doing the same in London. So we are watching to see where the gold price will go today. Full Story
– Gold seasonal sweet spot – August and September – is coming – Gold’s performance by month from 1979 to 2016 – must see table – August sees average return of 1.4% and September of 2.5% – September is best month to own gold, followed by January, November & August Full Story
Trend after the FOMC statement will be the key. Cautious optimism for gold and silver despite the bullish technical. Crude oil seems to have formed a short term floor around $44 while copper seems to be in the race to outperform silver and zinc. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 24 July, 2017
The gold price has broken through overhead resistance and is now consolidating on that resistance which is now support. Today, we expect and are seeing a dollar rally back to overhead resistance before resuming its downward path. The media is blaming the Trump family for the fall, but as we said last week, the dollar bear market has begun in earnest! Once this rally subsides, we do see rallies in the dollar but the trend is lower now. We cannot blame the Trade deficit as this has been negative yearly since the seventies something the world has accepted as the U.S. ‘exorbitant privilege.’ Full Story
News will be the key. Traders and short term investors should be very careful over the next two weeks. There is lot of economic news as well as political news which can result in prices zooming one day and nosediving the next. Day traders should also trade very carefully on days when prices range trade. Full Story
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