By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA - 27 November, 2019
We are looking at downside targets of $1400 and lower in Gold and roughly $16.00 for Silver. Should the metals test those levels, then sentiment indicators would reach more encouraging levels that could finally favor the bulls.
If and when that occurs, it could create excellent buying opportunities across the sector. Some juniors could bottom sooner while some could bottom around the end of tax loss selling.
We continue to focus on identifying and accumulating the juniors with significant upside potential in 2020. Full Story
The range trade in gold and silver which has been there in November will be broken in December. Volatility will rise. A new trend should be formed in December. I expect the US dollar Index to crash. Brexit, US jobs numbers and actual signing of the US-China trade deal should be market mover or market shaker in December. Full Story
According to an UBS survey, 3,400 high net worth investors with at least $1 million in investable assets and representing 55% of the respondents are expecting a significant drop in the markets at some point in 2020. As a result, the super-rich have increased their cash holdings by 25% of their average assets. Ray Dalio, the billionaire hedge fund founder, co-chair and co-chief of Bridgewater Associates, has seen his firm make a $1.5 billion bet that stock markets around the world will fall by March 2020. The bet is mostly made up of put options. Then again, Mr. Dalio, who seems to be obtaining a reputation as a perma-bear, was warning about a coming great depression back in 2016.
Of course, we have the perma-bulls as well. Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock Inc. one of the world’s largest investment management companies with an estimated $6.8 trillion assets under management, has said most investors are under-invested, there remains a lot of cash on the sidelines, and the real risk is for a melt-up, not a melt-down. We have seen many bullish headlines and have listened to numerous pundits telling everyone to buy like it is 2009. FOMO — “fear of missing out”— is alive and well. Full Story
Bullish US economy views by the Federal Reserve chairman: Monetary policy is “well positioned” to support the strong labor market, which is just now starting to benefit workers on the margins, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said yesterday. Powell said Fed officials have a favorable outlook for the U.S. economy founded on strong consumer spending, which is bolstered by a robust job market, increasing incomes and solid consumer confidence. Still, he said weak global growth and trade uncertainty are holding back growth and that policymakers will “respond accordingly” if economic data leads to a “material reassessment” of their economic outlook. Our view, impact on gold and silver: Short term correction followed by a rise to $2000 in the long term. Full Story
The best performing precious metal this week was palladium, up 3.85 percent. Shipments of palladium from Switzerland to Hong Kong rose to a five-year high in October. In the weekly Bloomberg survey of gold traders and analysts, most respondents were surprisingly bullish on the yellow metal for next week, expecting further tension between the U.S. and China over Hong Kong. President of Serbia Aleksandar Vucic told reporters this week that it has the largest amount of gold in Serbia’s history and that it will continue to buy gold based on the direction the crisis in the world is moving. Full Story
We (NFTRH) prepared over the summer for the precious metals correction that is in force right now. As a macro market guy I will never knowingly B/S myself or readers about why gold should be bullish when the fundamental indicators show that not to be true. So I am sensitive to the 2013 cyclical upturn in the Semi sector that led the economy even as we have tracked a new upturn over the last year.
The question is “why should it be different this time?” respect to a gold-bullish view. The post above scratches the surface, but it’s a completely different world of today vs. 2012. The next big market event is not likely to look like the more recent big events. Full Story
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