The bottom line is the major silver miners are struggling. With silver falling to nearly a quarter-century low relative to gold in Q4, the miners’ results were naturally weak. Mining costs surged as production kept waning, reflecting the ongoing trend of major silver miners increasingly diversifying into gold. But silver-mining profits are still primed to explode higher as silver continues climbing in its young upleg with gold.
There aren’t enough major primary silver miners left to flesh out their own ETF, which is probably why SIL is dominated by gold miners. While it will rally with silver amplifying its gains, SIL’s upside potential is just dwarfed by the remaining purer silver stocks. Investors will be far-better rewarded buying them instead of settling for a watered-down silver-miners ETF. Their stocks will really surge as silver continues recovering. Full Story
Trend for gold and silver is down at the moment. Demand in Asia will be the key. Look for short covering in gold and silver as the quarter comes to a close. Crude oil is fundamentally bearish. I expect lower demand in Asia in the upcoming quarter. Copper will volatile. Full Story
I have not been happy about the pattern that has been forming in gold since it plunged rather rudely and sharply around the end of February. The concern that was engendered by that plunge and the accompanying momentum breakdown, that we can see on gold’s latest 8-month chart below, were allayed by its managing to stabilize above its parabolic uptrend line and then rise off it. However, the rally this month has been hesitant and unconvincing, and it is now becoming clearer that it may be a B-wave bear Flag to be followed by a C-wave breakdown through the parabolic uptrend support line that would lead to a sharp drop probably towards or to the support shown in the $1240 area, where it would stabilize before later reversing to the upside again. If this is the scenario that is set to unfold, it is likely to happen soon, as the bear Flag looks about complete. Full Story
April Gold’s tortuous slog toward an ‘easy’ rally target at 1332.00 warrants a closer look at the bearish case. For if the futures were to fall just $9 to the green line shown in the chart (click on inset), that would trip a theoretical sell signal to as low as 1255.90 — a 4.5% plunge from current levels. Although the bull trend begun last August from 1182 still dominates the daily chart, the A-B countertrend shown in the chart is sufficiently compelling to imply that a sharp correction may be imminent. The danger would be averted by a rally exceeding 1356. 80, where a small but technically significant peak was notched on the way down from 1400 last spring. Full Story
It was the week of the Fed. We take a look back at its origins on Jekyll Island and a small look at how the Fed works. The Fed surprised with its dovish statement. Stock markets rallied then plunged. Some interest rates and interest rates have turned negative signaling a potential recession. Nonetheless our closely watched ''Recession Spread'' remains positive so any recession remains months away. We look at household debt and corporate debt to GDP in our ''Chart of the Week''.
Gold continues to meander and the US$ Index appears poised to go higher. Stock markets could have a rough week following Friday's drop and volatility picked up. We define the break down points. Full Story
The price of palladium briefly topped $1,600 an ounce for the first time ever last week on a widening supply-demand imbalance. Markets sent the metal higher on news that Russia, the world’s number one producer of palladium, was set to ban the export of scrap metal, which would have the effect of squeezing global supply even further. This comes a week after car manufacturers signaled an increase in demand for palladium, which is used in the production of pollution-scrubbing catalytic converters.
As such, the palladium-to-gold ratio—or the measure of how many ounces of gold can be purchased with one ounce of palladium—is now at an historical high. Full Story
It’s only a matter of time until the bearish bet pays off big, according to Crescat Capital LLC. While the Denver-based firm has only about $50 million under management, it has a history of outperforming the S&P 500 Index — with its Global Macro Fund returning 41 percent last year alone. Now the investment company says it’s ready to capitalize on an end of the economic cycle as indicators warn that a recession is imminent in the coming quarters. Full Story
Fed "policy," such as it is, went all silly Monday when a little-known spokesman for the central bank said he expects one more rate hike in 2019 and perhaps another in 2020. Didn’t Chairman Powell just finish saying that there would be no tightening this year? And weren’t we reading the other day that the yield curve had inverted, raising the risk of a U.S./global recession? Full Story
By: Chris Waltzek, GoldSeek Radio - 25 March, 2019
Our guest outlines proprietary market model entries / exits including gold that could eventually ascend to $2,500 Adding support for the bullish case for PMs / commodities, the Euro could remain strong relative to the Greenback. Years ending in the number 7 oftentimes lead to key weakness in the NYSE, such as the Crash of 1987, market-flu of 1997. The Nenner model anticipates the final low to unfold in 2020, despite one of the most impressive share rallies in US history. Full Story
There is a ratio chart, $Gold:$XAU, we haven’t looked at in quite awhile that has helped us in the past to locate some important turning points for the PM stocks. I’m not going to get into all the details tonight but this ratio chart shows you just how undervalued the $XAU or precious metals stocks in general are to gold itself. From the mid 1980’s to the 2008 GFC crash the horizontal blue line was a good place to buy your gold and silver stocks and when the ratio fell to the red line it was a good place to sell those stocks. Full Story
While the demand for precious metals is certainly off its highs from prior years, investors would be quite surprised by the astonishing amount of physical gold and silver investment since the 2008 financial crisis. Only by comparing the gold and silver investment demand in the prior decade, can we truly understand how the precious metals market has changed, and probably forever.
Now, before I get into the information, I wanted to say a few things about precious metals sentiment and the disillusionment, and at times, the outright disgust, by a percentage of former gold and silver investors. I am not going to name any names, but rather focus on the inability of these individuals to CONNECT THE DOTS in regards to the disintegrating Global Financial Ponzi Scheme. Full Story
Both could be proven wrong, although it might take a few more weeks before we know for sure. Friday’s cascade on Wall Street felt particularly scary because it came amidst an onslaught of downbeat news concerning the dramatic slowdown in the global economy. Growth in Europe and China seems ready to plummet and take the U.S. economy with it. There was also an unsettling development in the financial sector as borrowing rates on 90-day T-bills exceeded those on the Ten-Year Note. The last time the yield curve inverted was in 2007, just before the financial system and stock market crashed. A rate inversion has preceded every recession since 1975. A further concern was that yields on German bonds swung negative, begging the question of whether it’s too late in the game for so urgent and desperate an attempt at stimulus to work. Full Story
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