Prudent investors have to overcome late 2016’s groupthink herd euphoria and protect themselves from what’s coming. That means lightening up on stocks, building cash, and buying gold. Central banks have a long history of trying and failing to eliminate stock-market cycles. The longer they are artificially suppressed, the worse the inevitable reckoning as the cycles resume with a vengeance. 2017 looks dangerous! Full Story
The nearest Hidden Pivot resistance lies at 1164.00 (60-min, A=1124.30 on 12/15; B=1151.70 on 12/27), but if it too gets shredded, so will the key external peak at 1168.00 recorded on 12/14. That would refresh the bullish energy of the intraday charts, making it more likely that 2017 will begin with a bang for bullion. Full Story
In more ways than one, 2016 was a roller coaster year. One need only look at gold’s performance to confirm this. After rallying more than 30 percent in the first half, the precious metal stalled in the days before the U.S. election, then retreated on a weekly basis, under pressure from a strengthening dollar and tightening monetary policy.
As you can see in the oscillator below, gold is now down more than two standard deviations from its mean, or average, dollar amount. The reason I show you this is because, in the past, this was a good time to begin accumulating, as mean reversion soon followed. Full Story
As I have now been publishing my analysis on markets for a bit over 5 years, I have seen these set ups quite a number of times on many different time scales. You see, the metals complex has now dropped for months and even deeper than we had initially expected back in September when we began looking down after the first corrective bounce. And, we have been dropping since that time with positive divergences developing on most of the charts we track. Full Story
Gold is now officially in its longest bear market ever. If we define a bull market as a multi-year advance then Gold has endured five bear markets over the past 45 years. Four of the five are plotted in the chart below. The current bear market has followed the trajectory of the 1987-1993 and 1996-2001 bears but with more downside. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 29 December, 2016
With the rise in the gold price today the price of gold at $1,130 looks more and more like the bottom. Of course we could be wrong, as these sales from the gold ETFs could re-emerge in the New Year. But with Shanghai showing a greater influence on the gold price today as prices jumped $10 after not being able to break up through $1,140 for some time, is an indication of what lies ahead? Next week should add to this conclusion or dismiss it. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 28 December, 2016
The markets are still in holiday mode ahead of the New Year, so we should not read too much into the markets this week. We see that in the small tonnage sold in the last day from the SPDR gold ETF. The amount is a strange figure but one we have seen many times before. It looks like a short term trader is trying to read the market on a daily or weekly basis and positioning himself, accordingly. If the price rises, we expect this amount to be purchased back in the days to come. Full Story
So bottom line, because of this paper market ‘clusterf*ck’ that controls precious metal prices, what will happen in the end is many producers will go bust as commodity prices are kept at or below cost set against debt induced bankruptcies, which is of course the big reason gold (and silver) producers keep putting out ore under such adverse conditions – because they must pay the bankers. As this process works through however, what will happen is increasingly supply will become tighter, especially for silver, which is not hoarded like gold. This is important to realize as very little silver production is actually turned into bullion savings, maybe 15%. Full Story
This COT report for gold shows the commercial traders not only covering short positions in the latest reporting period, but also adding a nice number of longs! Full Story
By: Gary Christenson, Deviant Investor - 27 December, 2016
U.S. stock markets are making new highs regularly even though bonds are falling. Expect a substantial correction. Central banks hate to see stocks and bonds falling. Expect more QE. Central banks do not want higher gold prices but the coming financial crisis will focus their worries elsewhere. Expect gold to rise much higher depending on the degree of fiscal and monetary craziness, debt growth and QE “money printing.” Full Story
Bonds are severely oversold. There should be a bounce but if it’s weak, or doesn’t last very long then prepare for a crash. I’ve never seen a bubble yet that popped gracefully. Full Story
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