Ever since returning to the bullish camp on metals in the spring of 2003, I’ve watched numerous "experts" attempt to step in front of this commodities freight train by predicting its top or best days behind it. Even I’m guilty of that in the copper market lately. And each time so far, the party or parties have been flattened. (I, personally, have been tied to the tracks with copper wiring). Who could forget that commercial a year or two ago on TOUT-TV (CNBC-TV) for the sergeant-at-arms of the "Don’t Worry, Be Happy" army on Wall Street, Jim Cramer, where he cried, "Commodities are dead!" Or how about TOUT-TV’s number one Pied Piper, Larry Kudlow, making constant "gold is dead" predictions all the way up from $350? Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 31 March, 2006
As today’s commodities bull market has shown in recent years, it plays host to many different playing fields. In any bull market, secular upward trends are readily apparent from the outside. But a long-term bull’s strategic nature houses a myriad of tactical trends in which various sector strengths and weaknesses define its character. Full Story
Don’t be impressed that the Dow is closing in on all-time highs. The charts above from Robert Prechter’s “The Elliott Wave Theorist” show a much truer picture. If measured in a stable measure of value such as gold, the Dow hit a new six-year low early this year. Do the recent multi-year highs in some of the major indices mean everything is strong and running smoothly as the talking heads on Bubblevision proclaim? We should soon see. The wisest defense in this environment is to have the bulk of your assets in gold and silver yet the vast majority as yet have none. What are YOU waiting for? Full Story
The market rallied to a new contract high. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. Follow through buying looks likely if the market can hold yesterday's gap on the day session chart. There could be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The next upside target is 594.8. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 591.9 and 594.8, while 1st support hits today at 581.5 and below there at 574.1. Full Story
Gold remained near unchanged in Asia but rose over $5 near $580 in London and then extended its gains in New York to find over $10 gains. After climbing up over $585, gold then dropped back near $580, but it then rallied into the close and ended near its highs of the session at a new 25 year high with a 2.22% gain. Silver traded slightly higher in Asia and then rocketed to about $11.50 in London before it dropped back down near $11.35 by the New York open. Silver traded in a range of about $11.35 to $11.50 for much of trade in New York, but in then rallied to new highs at the close and ended with a 4.25% gain at a new 22 year high. Both metals are also trading nicely higher in after hours Access trade at the time of writing. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 30 March, 2006
In the first part of this article we covered the history of gold from 1971 onwards. The discrediting of gold accompanied the rise of the $ to the almost sole global reserve currency. The Central Bank sales right up to the low point of the gold price, the “Brown Bottom” was followed by the turn around until today’s storming price rise a prelude to new highs eventually. The final part of this three part series will cover the Devaluation of the $ and the future of gold. But in this second part we cover the present and the future of the $ gold and in part oil. Full Story
There are many positive recent developments in the silver market. The most noteworthy is the approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) to list the silver ETF (Exchange Traded Fund). It appears that actual trading of the ETF is only a matter of time. Silver prices rose to new highs on the news. Full Story
Governments are the masters of money illusion. Ever since sovereigns substituted base metals for precious metals in coins, they have been trying to fool the people about the value of money. The calculations on consumer prices in many countries, especially the U.S., are statistical manure. Why? So the citizens will not understand the true destruction of money wealth. Governments prefer to steal by stealth rather than overtly. Full Story
With the Dollar moderately lower for a second day in a row, the currency impact has turned back into a more positive impact for gold. In fact, with the Dollar unable to find sustained support in the wake of a rather hawkish Fed outcome, it is possible that the currency impact on gold is set to remain positive. Other favorable developments for the gold market include a sharp upward run in the US equity market and renewed strength in energy prices. For most of last week, the outside market influences were negative to gold but now that situation has been reversed. Full Story
Gold fell near $460 in after hours (NY Access) trade yesterday and remained lower in Asian trade, but it then began to rebound in London and came into New York just slightly lower from yesterday’s close. Gold then climbed higher throughout trade in New York and ended near its highs with a 1.15% gain at a new 25 year closing high. While gold traded higher in intraday trade in early February in both the spot and futures markets, today’s close marks the highest close in over 25 years for spot gold. Silver followed a very similar pattern to gold and surged 2.12% to new 22 year highs. Full Story
Taking into consideration the dominant short-term trends, the gold stock sector is still in recovery mode and has some leeway for a correction right now without going back immediately into the "danger zone." Of the five leading trend identifiers of the sector - XAU, HUI, GOX, GLD and FCX - all five are above the important 90-day moving average right now and all except the XAU are even above the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. This is a sign that the dominant trend is still up and as long as at least three out of the five remain above the 90-day MA I consider the dominant uptrend/bias to be still intact. Full Story
We don't expect the impact of the Fed to last long, but it is certainly cause for some profit-taking. While seeing the forward rate hike expectations rise a little further is limiting to gold, the overall impact of the Fed's dialogue on Tuesday afternoon is only partially undermining because the Dollar isn't showing that much strength from the meeting. We suspect that the June gold contract will see some support today off the 50 day moving average down at $567.3. Full Story
Gold fell about $3 in Asia and London before it rose up near $570 in early New York trade, but it then fell off a bit into the close and ended just slightly lower on the day. Silver traded slightly higher in Asia before it fell to under $10.80 in London, but it then rebounded to around $10.90 in early New York trade and then also fell off a bit into the close and ended just slightly lower on the day. Both metals were trading about 0.5% lower in after hours trade in reaction to the fed’s statement. Full Story
Many of you are still working and able to 'feed in' additional investment funds from your salary. That's wonderful. I was there once. On the other hand, for those of you that now pull down on retirement savings, and need your savings to not only grow, but just as important don't want your portfolio to slide back down when our stock darlings correct, there is a way. And, correct they will - - and with a vengeance! Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 28 March, 2006
The attempts of modern statisticians to create an index that represents the average price in the economy can be likened to the attempts made by the alchemists of old to change non-precious metals into gold. In both cases the idea is appealing, but the objective is impossible. Full Story
With the metals market all moving upward in sync yesterday and the Dollar mostly behaving itself, the gold market comes into the action today partially overbought but not nearly as vulnerable as it was for most of last week. With Taiwan gold starting trade yesterday and Budapest to begin trading gold contracts on April 20th, it is clear that interest in the metals is rising. In retrospect, some of the last two session's gains were probably fueled by a prediction that soaring Chinese currency reserves were probably going to result in the Chinese Central bank increasing its holdings of gold. Full Story
Gold started off a couple dollars lower in Asia, but it then rose throughout trade in London and New York and ended near its highs with a 1.18% gain to close just $5.40 from its 25 year closing high of $572.20 that was set on February 2nd. Silver rose in Asia and London before it eased a bit in New York, but it still ended with a 1.59% gain and made a new 22 year high. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 27 March, 2006
As we have said consistently, the demand for Silver is going to overtake supply and it may well be in the process of doing so now. With demand for silver for photography having dropped, but being more than replaced by new applications in industry and prints of digital photographs, global demand has moved to a point where it is greater than new global production. Full Story
By: Joe Ferrazzano, Trade The Cycles - 27 March, 2006
NEM, HUI, and the XAU hit 2% follow through Wave 5 minor intermediate term cycle buy signals on Tuesday 3-14 (see HUI 1 year chart dated 3-17), which indicates that the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 began on Friday 3-10-06. HUI is probably headed for 400-450+ in the Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle. Full Story
Last Friday the gold market finally responded to the ongoing strength in silver and platinum but with the Dollar Index also forging a massive reversal last Friday morning it is difficult to determine what the main focus of the gold market really was. Certainly a series of new contract highs in silver, platinum and copper facilitated the run up in gold but some traders suggested that a revival in energy prices and ideas that the US Fed might go on hold, as a result of some housing market weakness probably added in some buying to the fray. Full Story
Gold traded about a dollar lower in Asia and London before it rose throughout trade in New York and ended near its highs with a 1.76% gain. Silver traded slightly lower in Asia before it rose slightly in London and New York and ended at a new 22 year high. Gold and silver equities rose about 3% in the first hour of trade and remained near their highs into the close. Full Story
Its been a while since we looked at the relationship between gold and the dollar. These two have always had an inversed relationship with each other, if one is up, the other is down. But in 2005, the dollar rallied while gold remained firm, at times both were rallying together. This gave the impression that a new relationship has begun, and now a year later, what next? Full Story
By: David Chapman, Union Securities - 26 March, 2006
We continue to hold the view that the two biggest risks going forward for global markets are rising global interest rates and an ongoing deterioration in global geopolitics. There is also another issue that appears to be coming to forefront as well. Protectionist sentiment, always an issue in the USA, is once again on the rise both in the US and as well in Europe. And in both instances the target is primarily China. Full Story
The markets really can be fascinating to those who are willing to take the time to study them. Increasingly it appears that pure Technical analysis is no longer sufficient to keep one on the right side of the market all the time. It appears that mass psychology is starting to take an even bigger role in predicting market direction. The good news is that the majority will never fathom this tool because the perquisites are Patience and discipline. Full Story
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