Gold rose nearly $3 in Asia, fell a couple of dollars under unchanged in London, rebounded to about unchanged by the New York open, and fell in morning New York trade to under $620 at one point, but it then rebounded into the close and ended just slightly lower on the day. Silver rose nearly 10 cents in Asia before it also fell in London and early New York trade, but it then rebounded into the close and made new highs on the day to end with a gain of 0.86%. Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence - 1 September, 2006
Today’s powerful commodities bull market has been host to a myriad of commodities enjoying varying degrees of success as the greater secular trend marches higher. Base metals though have been in a league of their own in the last twelve months. The workhorses of this bull, precious metals and energy, have even taken to the crowd of recent in order to witness the march of the industrial metals. Full Story
By: Peter Zihlmann, Zihlmann Investment Management AG - 1 September, 2006
The chart above clearly shows one thing: long-term trends often last many years. The bear market that started in 1988 ended in 1993. The up-swing that followed lasted three years from 1993 until 1996 and culminated in what may be called a false break-out. Then another bear-market unfolded taking the gold price down to $ 250 over a period of almost four years. Then came the spike in the gold price (1999) as a consequence of the central banks’ announcement that they would be limiting their gold-sales. Full Story
The major trend could be turning up with the close back above the 60-day moving average. A bullish signal was given with an upside crossover of the daily stochastics. Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market's posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the session. The near-term upside objective is at 638.5. The next area of resistance is around 636.8 and 638.5, while 1st support hits today at 631.6 and below there at 628.0. Full Story
Iranian risk and extended holiday weekend has resulted in gold and silver edging higher. As expected, Iran has defied the UN deadline to stop its uranium enrichment programme and faces sanctions. Full Story
Gold rose a few dollars to about $620 in Asia, added another couple dollars in London, and rose to above $625 in early New York trade before it fell back to $621 in midmorning trade, but it then rallied back into the close and ended near its highs with a gain of 1.26%. Silver remained near unchanged in Asia, rose about 15 cents in London, and added another 15 cents in early New York trade before it fell back near $12.60, but it then rallied in late trade and made new highs on the session by the close to end with a gain of 2.81%. Full Story
By: David Chapman, Union Securities - 31 August, 2006
We are now entering the hurricane season. Oh, we don’t mean that hurricane season, which has been largely a bust so far. By this time last year we had already endured Denis and Emily, and Katrina was about to unleash her destruction. So far this year only the current Ernesto might turn out to be a bad one, but that remains to be seen. September still might bring a few hurricane surprises as we are entering the worst part of the season. Full Story
Don’t blame the bears, though, since the ones who have been around for a while know in their minds, if not in their hearts, that any market as tempting to short as this one is out to dismember risk-takers. Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The next downside objective is now at 617.9. The next area of resistance is around 630.1 and 633.9, while 1st support hits today at 622.1 and below there at 617.9. Full Story
Gold rose about $5 in Asia, cut its gains slightly in London, and then rose to new session highs near $620 in morning New York trade before it fell off a bit into the close, but it still ended with a gain of 1.08% on the day. Silver gained about 10 cents in Asia and London and added another 30 cents in early New York trade to about $12.50 before it fell back off some in early afternoon trade, but a sharp rally higher in the last minutes of trade led it close near its highs with a gain of 2.89%. Full Story
After a lengthy period consolidating in a large trading range gold is now in position to break higher. It has behaved pretty much as predicted in the last update, dropping back towards the important support at $600. It was expected to fall to the $600 level, but in the event has found support a little higher in the $610 area. The reaction of the past several weeks has had several positive technical effects. Full Story
Silver is now in position to advance. Although it appears to have “done nothing” price wise over the past month, moving sideways within a narrow range, its technical condition is believed to have improved considerably. In the last update we expected it to react back to the lower boundary of the channel that started from the June low, but instead it has completed a “time correction”, by drifting sideways in a narrow range, sandwiched between support and resistance, marking time until the channel boundary caught up, which it has now done. Full Story
A week ago, I described Alan Greenspan’s time bomb, which he passed off to Ben Bernanke last February. This time bomb is the huge build-up of fiat money that enabled Greenspan to escape the 2001 recession without a scratch. There are three things that Bernanke can do about it: (1) continue the FED’s policy of stable money, which will detonate it within months; (2) reverse course and expand the money supply, which will roll the clock forward but will add to the explosive material; (3) resign. Full Story
There has arisen a recent controversy over the direction of the U.S. economy. Many analysts point to the potentially negative impact that a rising rate of interest has had over the past two years and also the real estate market slowdown. The real issue at stake, however, is that of production and that will be the focus of this article. Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective is 609.5. The next area of resistance is around 624.3 and 630.4, while 1st support hits today at 613.9 and below there at 609.5. Full Story
Gold rose a couple of dollars in Asia and held slightly higher in London, but it then again fell in morning New York trade to as low as $606.70 before a rebound into the close brought it off its lows to end with a loss of 0.70%. Silver also dropped in morning New York trade after it traded higher in Asia and London, but it rebounded sharply in the last 3 hours of trade and ended near its highs of the session with a gain of 1.09%. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster Global Watch - 29 August, 2006
Still no appetite for selling anywhere near the ‘ceiling’ levels, it is becoming clear to all slowly that the Central Banks are unlikely to drop large tonnages of gold onto the market at this stage of the Central Bank Gold Agreement year. We hold to our expectation that the C.B.G.A. signatories will sell only what has already been announced, that is around 300 tonnes each year for the next two years only. The balance will then be sold in the last year. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, New Era Investor - 29 August, 2006
There was a book written in the 1970s called “The Limits to Growth” regarded by some as a seminal work on the dangers of the irresistible force of exponential economic growth meeting the immovable rock of limited natural resources. As it turned out, it was the rock that was immovable and the force that was all too resistible. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor – Global Money Trends newsletter - 29 August, 2006
“If Liars can figure, then figures can lie.” How should one react to Tokyo’s fuzzy math, after government apparatchniks added 34 items to the Japanese consumer price index, whose prices on balance were falling, and removed 48 goods and services that were becoming more expensive? The fuzzy math produced a stunning two-thirds decline in Japan’s core consumer inflation rate to 0.2% in July, from the 0.6% inflation rate reported in June, jolting Japanese interest rates. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 29 August, 2006
It is well documented that an inversion of the yield curve (the shortest-term interest rates rising above the longest-term rates) almost always precedes a recession, and that, if history is anything to go by, once the yield curve becomes inverted there's a high probability of a recession beginning within the ensuing 12 months. With this in mind, does the US yield curve's momentary inversion in February of this year combined with its recent return to inverted territory mean that the US economy is bound to enter a recession at some point over the coming year? Full Story
Another revelation from yesterday’s chat session holds implications for gold bulls that are rather more glum, since it raised the prospect of continued weakness over the next 4-6 weeks, at least. The threat was identified by a Hidden Pivot seminar grad who has demonstrated a growing knack for finding succulent swing points. Based on his head-up in the gold ETF (Symbol: GLD), it would appear that the metal is on very thin ice following yesterday’s drubbing. Full Story
Daily stochastics are trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. There could be some early pressure today given the market's negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The next downside objective is now at 614.3. The next area of resistance is around 629.3 and 636.0, while 1st support hits today at 618.5 and below there at 614.3. Full Story
Gold traded mostly slightly lower in Asia and mostly slightly higher in London and then dropped off dramatically in midmorning New York trade to as low as $611.80 before a small rebound into the close, but it still ended 1.11% lower on the day. Silver followed a similar pattern and lost 2.84%. Full Story
Daily stochastics are trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next downside target is now at 625.9. The next area of resistance is around 633.3 and 635.9, while 1st support hits today at 628.3 and below there at 625.9. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 27 August, 2006
The 450 zone provided an incredible amount of resistance and now that it has been overcome the very long term picture looks rather interesting for gold. Usually a break out such as this results in a test of the resistance zone however due to the current geopolitical situation this might not occur. However if the current geopolitical situation had to change even temporarily Gold would most likely pull back very fast to test the 450 ranges; gold would then become a screaming buy. Full Story
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