By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 2 June, 2006
Investors are finally just starting to heed the cry of the watchmen. The commodities bull hath cometh, the commodities bull hath cometh! As a long-time proselytizer of the Great Commodities Bull, I’m sure having fun watching commodities storm the streets while gaining increasing exposure from the mainstream financial media. And in this process drawing in more and more capital on the investment and speculation front. Full Story
“We bought gold at 640 today.” A subscriber questioned my sell signal in gold, and promptly sent me the buy order above, recommended from another analyst. It makes no sense to me why some folks keep trying to pick a bottom of this gold correction, why not just let it run its course, and buy it when the selling has dried up. As always, we have no opinions or predictions, we simply follow price action and go with the flow. Following is our month end review on gold. Full Story
If you’ve been wondering when gold’s correction will end, threre may not be much longer to wait. There are three hidden pivots not far beneath the 630.70 low registered yesterday by the Comex August contract, the most bearish of them just a whisker under $600. I’ve provided exact numbers in my Touts for Friday so that you can attempt bottom-fishing at any or all of them with extremely tight stop-losses. I’ve also ranked them in order of appeal. Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The gap down on the day session chart is bearish with more selling pressure possible today. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The next downside target is 619.9. The next area of resistance is around 640.0 and 645.8, while 1st support hits today at 627.0 and below there at 619.9. Full Story
Gold remained near unchanged in early Asian trade, fell near $630 by the open in London, stayed in the low $630s until the open in New York, and then fell near $620 by midmorning in New York. Gold rebounded to back above $630 by early afternoon trade, but it then fell back off into the close and ended with a loss of 2.3%. Silver followed a similar pattern and lost 6%. Full Story
Shortly after gold resolutely surged through $500 with nary a backward glance, noted expert after pundit began to board the gold correction bandwagon. At first there were a few. But one by one, as gold drove unimpeded higher, their number swelled. Finally, during what many of their league pronounced a parabolic rise that was destined to terminate gold’s Bull Market, the members of the financial media turned their focus towards constant discussions of the end-game of gold’s Bull Market. Full Story
This article builds on earlier essays by the writer based on a similar theme. However, as the reader will see, this gold boom cycle will be like none before it, and, as is often the case in human affairs, events of the past, whilst similar in outline, may differ significantly from presently unfolding events. To quote Winston Churchill, they are "variants on a familiar theme". Full Story
The close under the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh on the market. The next downside target is now at 630.2. The next area of resistance is around 659.9 and 673.7, while 1st support hits today at 638.1 and below there at 630.2. Full Story
Gold remained in the low $650s in Asia and London before it moved back up near $660 in early New York trade, but it then fell off markedly to near $640 by afternoon trade which saw it rebound a bit, but still end significantly lower on the day. Silver remained near $13 in Asia and London and found slight gains in early New York trade, but it also fell off markedly in late morning New York trade and ended near its lows with notable losses. Full Story
A sharp sell off in oil, a massive bond market rally, a Fed pause, or a plunge in the US dollar that, somehow-someway, neatly unifies global central bank interests. Yes, there are many events that could spark a massive relief rally in the stock markets. Yet for all of the potential rallying points, one point can not be easily dismissed: stocks are not cheap. To be sure, on a GAAP basis the Dow is trading at 20-times earnings, the average dividend yield on the S&P 500 is only 1.76%, and the average REIT is yielding less than the 10-year Treasury bond. Full Story
It’s amazing how short people’s memories are. A lot of foreign Emerging markets have seen back-to-back gains of 30 or 40% p.a. for the last 2 years. Now we’re surprised when these self-same markets are BATTERED down 15 or 20% in a few days? I guess its human nature to always want more. But hey, get a Grip! What goes up must also come down. What’s really Worrying people is not so much MAGNITUDE but SPEED. A DEFLATIONARY COLLAPS CAN HAPPEN IN THE BLINK OF AN EYE! Full Story
By: Roland Watson, New Era Investor - 31 May, 2006
Our last update on silver back in January proved to be pessimistic in suggesting that silver may go no further than $11.30 before entering the first meaningful correction. As it turned out, $15.18 was the ultimate high as the metal surged against the meagre expectation of many an analyst. Full Story
Where do I start today? That is the question rolling around my head right now because there is so much to cover. Someone sent in a question this weekend. Do you guys ever take a break? Answer: rarely. Again, because one must stay on top of these things, especially when change comes so fast now. And as you know from our musings last week, change could be coming very fast if the dollar ($) heads toward 80 for real in the near future, because Mr. Bernanke will have a rather difficult decision to make. Full Story
Technical chart analysis is called an art form, highly subjective, given to experienced interpretation, and not the least a hard science. With all the hubbub over the noticeable price corrections in gold, silver, copper, a fire has lit under my seat to address the chart pattern flashing bull in silver. Such a signal is not immediately obvious. It is debatable whether the silver pattern is from the textbook. Some see a top pattern instead in the silver chart, especially since upon retest, the 14.50 previous high gave way to a 15.0 high. My conclusion (losing fuzziness each week) is that silver is consolidating before another earth-shattering move up toward the 20 level. Full Story
Usually, I much prefer to write about silver on a long-term basis, as I am convinced that is the only real way the average investor can hope to succeed. Leveraged, short-term trading is not suitable for most investors. Fortunately, the long-term supply/demand fundamentals in silver look as promising today as they were before the price of silver doubled and tripled. Furthermore, as an analyst, it is generally safer and easier to stick to the long view. Full Story
Yesterday’s sharp plunge looked like a prelude to…well, nothing, actually. You don’t have to be a chartist to see that the entire 184 points of Tuesday’s decline failed by a country mile to take out last week’s lows in the Dow. For that reason, it barely qualified as a bearish impulse leg on the 15-minute chart, much less the “daily.” That’s what gratuitous volatility is all about: Swings get larger and larger, until even a 300-point day in the Dow can be said to have occurred within a range that is technically meaningless. Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next downside objective is now at 641.1. The next area of resistance is around 661.1 and 670.0, while 1st support hits today at 646.7 and below there at 641.1. Full Story
Gold remained near unchanged for most of trade in Asia before it moved up near $655 in early London trade, but it then fell back near $650 by the open in New York. It then rose up near $665 by midmorning before it fell back off into the close, but it still ended 0.54% higher. Silver followed a very similar pattern and ended with a gain of 3%. Full Story
What a week it was! Again we’ve been witnessing a volatile week in the gold pits being characterized by growing fear and plenty of sell recommendations. So what to do next you wonder, what do the current technical indicators say? What about the Gold/HUI anomaly? Is Gold on its way towards its 200 dma as many analysts do predict? When will this bleeding stop? Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 30 May, 2006
As far as the senior stock markets of the world are concerned, the crashes that have already occurred in some of the peripheral markets are warning shots. We don't think there's a realistic chance of the S&P500 Index or the Dow Industrials Index falling by anywhere near 50% from their recent highs, but all the markets that have been pushed upward by the rising sea of liquidity over the past two years are vulnerable to some extent now that the tide has begun to go out. The markets that have been the recipients of the greatest amount of speculation -- the stock markets of the Middle East, South America and India, for instance -- will likely be hit the hardest, but all markets will probably be hit. Full Story
The month of May proved to be an eventful month for the leading gold and silver stocks with lots of wide swinging movement, mostly to the downside. This volatility didn’t go unnoticed by Wall Street either, with several articles appearing in the leading financial publications drawing investors’ attention to the "attractive" volatility currently underway in the metals arena. The question weighing on the minds of most gold and silver stock traders is whether the sector has bottomed and if not, how much longer until it does? Full Story
Daily stochastics are trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next downside objective is now at 635.3. The next area of resistance is around 658.0 and 663.2, while 1st support hits today at 644.0 and below there at 635.3. Full Story
Gold traded in a range of about $650 to $655 in Asia and London before it fell to under $645 in midmorning New York trade, but it then rebounded into the close and ended with a slight gain on the day. Silver traded near $12.70 in Asia, dropped to around $12.60 in London, and fell to under $12.50 in midmorning New York trade, but it then rebounded into the close and ended with a decent gain on the day. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 28 May, 2006
The Russian Trading System, Russia's premier stock market, announced that it would start trading in gold, oil, and oil products on June 8. The announcement comes in the wake of President Vladimir Putin's state of the nation address May 10, when he said Russia, as a leading oil-exporting nation, should establish its own oil exchange to trade crude and petroleum products for Rubles. Full Story
I rate the current gold and resource price levels as serious buying positions for a powerful upside move into the top of these markets by the end of the year. The next six months could be the most gain orientated period of 2006 for investment portfolios with a heavy gold and resource exposure. Full Story
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