The bottom line is big US stocks’ Q4’18 results looked impressive on the surface. Good annual growth in sales, operating cash flows, and even earnings excluding Berkshire’s huge mark-to-market losses appeared to buck Q4’s major stock-market selloff. But these growth rates all suffered sharp decelerations from those seen in preceding quarters, suggesting a slowdown is underway. That’s a real problem for stock markets.
Valuations remain dangerously high, deep into bubble territory at the end of Q4. And even after the Q4 earnings were included by late February, near-bubble valuations persisted. That means the likely bear has barely started its stock-price-mauling work to mean revert expensive valuations. On top of that, 2018’s anomalous corporate-tax-cut-transition growth rates are history. All this will continue to pressure stock prices. Full Story
What these PM stocks above show is that there are some bright spots within a sea of mediocrity. The leaders will lead the way as they always do and the rest will move when their time is right. I know it feels like one needs to be fully invested but there are going to be many new buy signals when we see the top rails of those 2016 trading ranges begin to give-way. If one is a long term investor then you can sit tight but for most of us mere mortals sitting tight can be very difficult when we see our profits slowly slipping away. I think the name of the game right now is patience and let some of the PM stocks that have had a strong run out of the October low to consolidate those gains. There is nothing I can see right now that calls into question that the next leg up in the bull market that began late last year is in trouble. Full Story
Investors and traders are not fools. More and more manufacturing jobs will be created in USA. American farm exports will rise. But these are all short term. Trump’s actions can unite foes like Japan and China and even unite Europe as a whole. The net result will be US dollar dumping. Full Story
So, as I started this article, please recognize that risks have risen significantly. We are now approaching the target I set up on my charts well before we even bottomed. And, this target will likely send us down again. The manner in which we decline into April will tell me what I need to know about how soon and from where that rally over 3200SPX will begin. Full Story
Global US dollar dumping spree will increase from next year. Short term gains and long-term pains for the greenback. I expect crypto currencies to gain popularity and act as replacement to the US dollar (apart from gold). These cryptos will be backed by central banks. Full Story
Monday’s vicious shakedown was poetry in motion. An hour into the session, stocks were falling so hard that you might have thought the world was about to end. Far from it, as suckers who sold into the avalanche were soon to discover. DaBoyz had laid the groundwork for Monday morning’s crime spree by goosing shorts the night before. This caused the E-Minis to gap 13 points above last week’s highs, putting bears back on their heels. The perps then spent the next 16 hours distributing stock at prices above the highs before pulling the plug. Had they been child molesters — and I mean no insult to pederasts in comparing them to traders — they could not have had more fun if they’d had free run at an orphanage. Full Story
Global economy is slowing. China has lowered its economic growth forecast and also announced a major tax cut. Chinese economy is expected to see a slowest growth in the past three decades. Industrial metals may have formed a short term top. Long term bullishness in selected industrial metals (including silver) is intact. Full Story
- The host proposes a chief factor sending Palladium higher while gold and platinum remain relatively subdued. - Unlike the former high fliers, palladium was not hoarded as a store of value, but instead consumed like silver by industries. - The silver market could undergo an epic run to the three digit level in surprisingly fast order. - For the first time in perhaps decades, central banks are now accumulating silver. Full Story
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