By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 5 May, 2006
The bottom line is gold’s transition into Stage Two is proceeding nicely. Gold’s uplegs and gains are getting bigger and better than anything we saw in Stage One. Its behavior is also becoming more and more independent of the dollar on balance, with episodes of strong positive correlations, strong negative correlations, and no correlations all intermixed over time. Full Story
By featuring “hula numbers” for Comex gold, I’ve tried to take some of the guesswork out of trading an increasingly volatile bull market. Okay, so it’s also marketing gimmick. But why shouldn’t a guru be made to dance a hula in Times Square if he is wrong, wrong, wrong? You say that if even a mere fraction of America’s lame stock forecasters were to show up in their grass skirts on the same day, ukuleles in hand, midtown Manhattan would be inundated by a hula tsunami? Full Story
The rally brought the market to a new contract high. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next upside objective is 689.2. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 683.9 and 689.2, while 1st support hits today at 669.1 and below there at 659.7. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 5 May, 2006
A bit on how Indian retail investor made losses in the two corrections in gold and silver over the past fortnight. Bullish momentum should continue to defy the technical picture in gold and silver. Full Story
Gold traded in a range of about $1-$4 lower in Asia and London and started off in New York on either side of unchanged near $665. It then quickly moved up above $675 before it briefly fell back near unchanged in early afternoon trade, but it then rallied into the close and ended near its highs with a 1.29% gain at a new 25 year high. Silver fell slightly in Asia and traded over 20 cents lower in London, but it also rallied in early New York trade and climbed over $14 before it fell off into the close, but it still ended with a 0.44% gain. Full Story
The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. today announced margin changes for its gold and silver futures contracts, effective as of the close of business tomorrow. Full Story
Bonds have broken their long term 6 year up trend indicating that higher interest rates are here to stay. We might have a respite here and there but nothing that will last. Conversely the dollar has broken it’s newly established up trend line indicating that it is just a matter of time before the long term old trend line is re established. The high cost of these multiple wars combined with the fact that we are blocking foreigners from purchasing US assets has resulted in the dollar breaking down even faster then it should have. Full Story
Unless I am very specific about entry points and stops, it is my intention that subscribers follow their own muse when attempting to trade my numbers. I provide targets that are almost invariably reached, often very precisely, and trend forecasts that are correct about 88 percent of the time. This is what I am best at, and my forecasts are meant to give you the confidence to trade a particular stock or commodity in accordance with your own style and rules. In June Gold, for instance, my "ironclad" target at 709.50 should suffice to keep you on the right side of bullion, whether for purposes of establishing a position, taking profits, or even getting short at certain times. Full Story
The rally brought the market to a new contract high. Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next upside objective is 689.0. Full Story
Gold worked its way up near $670 in Asia and then moved above $675 in London and early New York trade, but a wave of selling at about 10AM EST brought gold all the way down near $660. It then rebounded back to $670 before it again fell back off a bit, but it still ended with a slight gain to set a new 25 year closing high. Silver rose near $14.50 in late Asian/early London trade before it sold off more than a dollar as gold sold off, but it was not able to recover as well as gold and it ended with a 3% loss on the day. Full Story
Are you keeping up with the Canadian Dollar (commonly known as the Loonie)? The Canadian Dollar is now the strongest currency in the world and there have been many forecasts of parity with the U.S. Dollar and as of today, the Loonie is trading at 90.35 as we write this article. The first and second charts below shows the strength of the Loonie over the last year and the third chart is of the XAU Gold Index. Observe the long term trends in all of the charts. Full Story
From the emails I have received from both subscribers and public readers the past few weeks, it is my observation that the new highs in metals and mining indices are making many very nervous, which is understandable. But being nervous is not a sell signal. The fact that quite a few prominent analysts have been anticipating a major sell off in the metals since last December which has yet to materialize, leaving thousands of gold bulls behind and out of the current awesome rally, will continue to add fuel to the fire as more and more are fed up waiting and will jump in at any cost. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 3 May, 2006
I do not personally recommend that small, individual investors buy the Silver ETF. I personally believe it is safer to own your own physical silver bullion, which you should own in case of brokerage house default, or if the markets simply stop trading for a year due to war or market meltdown. I believe the ETF is primarily for large institutional investors, who simply cannot personally move very large quantities of silver bullion that they would like to buy for investment purposes. If the price of silver stabilizes in about a month (or if market defaults on futures contracts do not take place), the Silver ETF may also be useful for large trading accounts such as IRA accounts, where it may be useful to trade into silver, instead of cash, to hold while deciding what other silver stocks to buy. Full Story
Are we to a "housing bubble" meltdown? Are we going to see the real estate boom reverse and turn into a real estate bear market anytime soon? Will 2006 see the onset of declining property prices on an intra-regional basis? In short, I think we'll find the answers to at least the first two of these questions will be answered in the negative. For select regions, however, there will be rather pronounced slowdowns in construction and housing sales that may seem like the bubble has burst, especially when compared with the high growth rates of the previous 3-4 years. We'll discuss some of these regions here. Full Story
New all-time highs for the Dow Industrials could conceivably come next week, but if and when they do, we should pay close attention to the technical quality of the rally. I’ve reproduced a chart below that shows how very perilous the rise from last May’s lows looks from a stochastic perspective. Note that two of the three price peaks recorded since early 2004 have generated divergent stochastic peaks. This is potentially a very negative development, although it is not quite bearish perfection... My next “Hula Number” for June Gold is: $709.50. Full Story
The rally brought the market to a new contract high. Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The market setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 675.3. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 672.0 and 675.3, while 1st support hits today at 662.8 and below there at 656.8. Full Story
Gold traded around $655 in Asia and moved up to about $660 in London before it furthered its gain in New York and ended near its highs of the session with an over 1% gain at a new 25 year high. Silver also fell off slightly in Asia, but it then rose to near $14 in London and furthered its gains in New York to end nearly 2% higher and just 35 cents away from a new 22 and ½ year closing high. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 2 May, 2006
There isn't a consistent relationship between gold and oil. In fact, the number of barrels of oil it takes to buy one ounce of gold tends to make huge swings -- from below 10 to above 25 and then back again -- and doesn't spend much time at all near its long-term average of 15. These huge swings are illustrated on the following sharelynx.com (http://www.sharelynx.com) chart of the gold/oil ratio. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 2 May, 2006
The gold price rise is almost exactly the reverse of the market when it fell to the “Brown Bottom” of $270 [the price at which Britain was selling its gold] and so much additional profit seemed to be gained by hedging. As the gold price fell, hedging became the clever, conservative and profitable thing to do. Now that the market is rising these positions are becoming an embarrassment. With most hedged positions averaging in real terms around $430 [including the ‘Contango’] and with the opportunity cost of $200 at present, even the most resilient of gold company executives holding these positions must be sweating buckets. Full Story
One the most versatile and relatively safe investment approaches to play on the bull market in commodities generally, and crude oil specifically, is the Canadian Dollar. It continues to track the CRB index and the crude oil price (West Texas Intermediate Crude). See for yourself. My personal investment strategy will continue to focus upon the Canadian mining and energy sector. Full Story
A new contract high was made on the rally. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The near-term upside target is at 668.2. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 664.3 and 668.2, while 1st support hits today at 656.1 and below there at 651.7. Full Story
Gold rose to over $660 in Asia, fell back under $655 by the New York open, soon rose back above $660, and then fell back under $655 in afternoon New York trade, but it then rallied into the close and ended with a nearly 1% gain at a new 25 year high. Silver rose to near $14 in Asia, fell off to near unchanged close to $13.50 at the New York open, quickly rallied back to over $14, and then fell back off a bit, but it then rallied into the close and ended near it highs with an over 3% gain. Full Story
This secular gold bull market has eaten up and spit out all those who dare stand in its way. Fortunately, up until April 20th, I was scar-free. While I in no way (despite what some people decide to read into it) said sell anything except copper (more in a moment) and remained steadfast in my belief gold can take out its all-time high around $875, I’m no longer going to speak about very short term views. Full Story
Welcome to South Africa ….. land of the highest murder rate, highest rape rate and world leader in the HIV pandemic. What a tourist attraction and wonderful public image!! At least the gyrating gold price has offered some relief from the soul searching events of the past week. My target of $635 was achieved and since then the price has vacillated wildly around this fulcrum as it smashed above the $640 level in the next bull attack towards the $685 level. This remains a fully fledged bull market. Full Story
A new contract high was made on the rally. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside target is 670.0. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 663.5 and 670.0, while 1st support hits today at 645.4 and below there at 633.6. Full Story
Gold remained near $635 in Asia, gained a couple of dollars in London, jumped to $645 in early New York trade, fell off a bit, jumped to over $655, and then fell slightly into the close, but it still ended at over $650 with a 2.79% gain to new 25 year highs. Silver traded about 20 cents higher in late Asian/early London trade before it fell to near unchanged by the New York open, but it then rocketed higher throughout trade in New York and gained 8.34% to close within $1.03 of its 22 and ½ year closing highs made on April 19th. Full Story
By: Joe Ferrazzano, Trade The Cycles - 30 April, 2006
HUI and the XAU's monthly upcycle (since 3-10-06) Wave 5 short term upcycle appears to have peaked on Wednesday 4-19 (see 1 year charts), which indicates that their monthly upcycle probably peaked on 4-19-06, but, NEM put in a modestly higher cycle high in rollover mode on 4-28, so HUI/XAU may do so as well this week. Based on the major upcycle trendlines (see 1 year charts) the monthly cycle low target ranges are 305-320 for HUI, 49-52 for NEM, and 129-135 for the XAU. Keep in mind it's likely that HUI/NEM/XAU's correction/monthly downcycle (the down portion of the monthly cycle) will have an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern, with each wave probably lasting about 3 to 5 days. Full Story
If we stand back and look around at what is happening in commodities markets generally, it should be abundantly clear that what we are seeing is a global flight into hard assets, a flight that will obviously be exacerbated by a plunging dollar. The implications of this are that, despite their current overbought status, the rate of increase in prices of many commodities will continue to accelerate, near-term correction or not, and when you stop to think that gold is the king of commodities and in times of extreme uncertainty and especially in conditions of hyperinflation is the most attractive stuff on earth, you quickly realize that the upside potential for gold is enormous. Full Story
Around the world, investors are shedding their national monies and moving to Gold. Quite simply, they have higher faith in Gold than that money produced by their governments. Gold, neither managed by a central bank nor a liability of a government, has been and continues to be the money in which investors have higher faith. Little wonder with the record of governments and their debt money that Gold is moving toward a new long-term high dollar price as it moves in a greater bull market to more than US$1,300. Full Story
Gold is soaring. Today it rose over $18 and reached yet another new 25 year high. Silver has been in a league of its own. It’s been soaring too and it’s been even stronger than gold. The other metals and oil are surging as well, and so are gold shares, energy and natural resource shares. So what’s driving these markets? Essentially, it’s a combination of financial and geopolitical factors. But many are now warning that these markets are overdone and they’ll soon be headed lower. And while downward corrections are certainly normal in any bull market, we wouldn’t bet against these bull markets. Full Story
While I’ve expressed mild skepticism in the past that an ounce of gold will eventually change hands for $10,000, there is no longer much room to doubt that the old high at $850 is destined to fall. How long it will take for prices to blow past that peak and hit $1,000? Count me among the lunatics on this question, since I think it’s going to happen well before the end of the year and perhaps even before autumn. Full Story
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