Gold traded mostly slightly higher in Asia and London before it jumped nearly $10 higher after the release of the jobs report, but it then began to fall off in late morning trade and dropped even further right at the close to end slightly lower on the day. Silver came into New York about 15 cents higher and added over 40 cents to that after the jobs report before it also fell off a bit in late morning trade, but it then rebounded from that slight downturn and did not drop further at the close to end with a gain of 3%. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 4 August, 2006
Speculation is a grand game of probabilities. When a speculator chooses to make a trade, he never has a 100% chance of winning or losing. Any trade unfolding over the inherently uncertain future is always drifting somewhere out in the great gray area between certainties. In this purely probabilistic environment, it is always in a speculator’s best interest to gain a deeper understanding of the underlying market in which he is trading. Literally everything that one can learn about a market ought to contribute to a more accurate perception of the true probabilities governing that market. Full Story
Have stocks ever climbed a wall of worry so ostentatiously as they are climbing one now? Not that I can recall. With Iran threatening to goose oil prices to $200, all-out civil war erupting in Iraq, and Lebanon offering in microcosm all of the elements of a possible Third World War, investors somehow found ample reason yesterday to push the Dow Industrial Average 42 points higher. Full Story
Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh on the market. The near-term upside objective is at 666.2. The next area of resistance is around 662.0 and 666.2, while 1st support hits today at 652.0 and below there at 646.3. Full Story
Gold traded slightly lower in Asia and fell about $5 in London before it fell further in morning New York trade to as lows as $638.10, but it then rebounded into the close to end over $5 off its lows with a loss of 1.01%. Silver traded in a range of about $12.00 to $12.15 in Asia, London, and New York and ended near the bottom of that range with a loss of 1.31%. Full Story
A personal story is warranted, too strange, perhaps more typical than we are aware. As the natural gas price experiences a strong reversal recovery from its winter decline, attention has turned during summer heat waves toward air condition cooling, electricity costs, and the draw demand for natural gas. A story hit home, well worth recounting about a sports health club in my area. It focuses on heat, cooling, costs, reaction, and business whiplash as example of the “crackup boom” described by Von Mises. But first, a diversion to update on Cuba. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, New Era Investor - 3 August, 2006
Is there any rhyme or reason to the millennial old relationship between gold and silver? For centuries it was decreed that about sixteen ounces of silver had the purchasing power of one ounce of gold. This was set by way of acknowledgement to the supply and demand fundamentals of the time as well as an attempt to impose some stability on the situation. Full Story
One of my favourite forms of analysis is called Intermarket analysis made popular by the Technical Master John Murphy. Intermarket analysis is a methodology used to form an overall market opinion by looking at multiple markets and their inter dependencies. That said, let’s take a quick tour of the financial world as at 7/28/06 - which could quite possibly be the eve of World War 3. Full Story
Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside objective is at 660.9. The next area of resistance is around 656.3 and 660.9, while 1st support hits today at 646.9 and below there at 642.0. Full Story
It’s a combination of sterling carry trade, technical break out and higher crude oil prices due to hurricane risk over the weekend that has resulted in silver and gold rising. Full Story
Gold traded around $1-$5 higher in Asia and London before it dipped to find slight losses at the New York open, but it then surged $10 higher in midmorning trade to above $556. It fell in late morning trade to back under $650, but a rally in the last minutes of trade brought it back above $650 to close with a gain of 0.77%. Silver traded slightly higher in Asia and London and surged over 50 cents higher in New York before it fell back off a bit with gold, but it also rebounded into the close and ended near its highs with a gain of 4.37%. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster Global Watch - 2 August, 2006
AngloGold Ashanti restructured its forward gold sales again reporting an overall 42.6 tonnes [1.37 million oz] reduction in its hedge book. However, the mark-to-market value of the hedge book stood at a negative $3.3bn. It received a gold price of $600/oz against a spot price of $629/oz in the June quarter and said it would ‘seek to manage its forward sales further’. Full Story
Many of you will have seen, at some point in your lives, the classic optical illusion picture, shown below, in which you at first see either a young woman, or an old hag. Some might say that which you see first is a function of whether you are an optimist or a pessimist, in a similar way to whether you view a glass of water as being half full or half empty. Full Story
The market now above the 60-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The intermediate trend could be turning up with the close back above the 18-day moving average. The market's close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. The near-term upside target is at 659.1. The next area of resistance is around 654.8 and 659.1, while 1st support hits today at 637.8 and below there at 625.2. Full Story
Gold and silver December and September future closed above the key short term technical resistance of $658.00 and $1174.0 and looks set for $700.00 and $1280 if they are able to close over these levels today. Full Story
Gold meandered on either side of unchanged in about a $5 range in Asia and London, but it then began to move sharply higher at about 9AM EST and gained throughout the rest of trade in New York to end near its highs of the day with a 2.05% gain. Silver remained in about a 10 cent range in Asia and London before it also surged higher in New York and ended near its highs with a gain of 3.37%. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 1 August, 2006
The oil price surged at the end of August last year in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, but it had been trending higher for some time prior to that event; Katrina's destruction of oil production facilities just prompted the final flurry of buying that created 'the top' and set the stage for an intermediate-term correction. Interestingly, the price action surrounding the recent top looks similar to the price action surrounding the 2005 Katrina-related top. In the most recent case the Israel-Hezbollah conflict provided the news backdrop that prompted the flurry of buying that MIGHT have resulted in an intermediate-term price top. Full Story
Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next downside target is now at 624.0. The next area of resistance is around 638.6 and 641.6, while 1st support hits today at 629.8 and below there at 624.0. Full Story
Gold and silver are consolidating but are finding sellers are higher levels. The US dollar is also trading in a range against the major currencies as lower growth in US economy gets slowly factored in by the markets. Full Story
Gold rose near $640 in Asia before it fell to as low as $628.30 in morning New York trade, but it then rallied back into the close and ended just slightly lower on the day. Silver spiked to near $11.50 in early Asian trade before it fell to under $11.20 in morning New York trade, but it also rallied back into the close and ended unchanged on the day. Full Story
Major uptrends start when people are least expecting them, and sadly that includes a lot of analysts who, being human too, frequently get caught up in the prevailing psychology. Before a new uptrend starts its imminent onset is typically camouflaged by a baffling array of conflicting indications, so that those who ask the fatal “what if?” question, will forever be deflected from buying at the most opportune time. Full Story
Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are taken out. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next downside objective is now at 621.3. The next area of resistance is around 640.5 and 644.2, while 1st support hits today at 629.1 and below there at 621.3. Full Story
It’s the summer market which can be reflected by movement in gold and silver prices. The developments in Middle (Muddle) East and the stance of US president Mr. Bush is the run up to US state elections in November. Full Story
My last article “gold stocks are breaking down” has incited a few hate mails from the gold bugs. Some of them wrote to apologize after learning that I’ve been a gold bull since 2001, and my last sell signal was primarily for hedging since many of our subscribers are holding long term profitable positions. However, despite the rally this week, nothing has changed. The “head & shoulder” topping pattern is still in play and will not be negated until the right shoulder is exceeded. And the good news is, until the neckline is violated, there is a good chance this topping pattern could be negated. Full Story
The market’s rally in the past few days has been brought to us courtesy of the super bearish sentiment that showed up in the AAII investor sentiment poll of last week, which showed a whopping 57% of investors had turned bearish compared to only 28% bullish. That much disparity in favor of the bears was sure to produce a rally as we talked about earlier and the banks were among the beneficiaries of the rally as expected. Full Story
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