The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a lackluster year so far, mostly lagging gold’s solid new upleg. But that vexing underperformance should soon give way to a big catch-up surge. The deeply-out-of-favor gold stocks are now entering their strong season, which starts right about now with a powerful autumn rally. That generates major gains on average in bull-market years, and this year’s upside potential is exceptional. Full Story
The Bigger the Base, the Greater the Upside Case. This saying among technical analysts/chartists helps define where we are today in the precious metals – and where we'll soon be headed.
It means that when prices "base" in a relatively narrow sideways range for an extended period, they will at some point break out. Before the action gets underway, bears and bulls alike will get "sandpapered" as they take positions, trying to guess whether or not the price is getting ready to decline further or move upward into a new bull phase. Full Story
At the end of the day, what all this tells me is that I need to remain bullish, as I reiterated at the lows in July, despite many wanting to throw in the towel. Ultimately, as long as the lows we struck in early July are not breached, the market is set up again in melt-up mode. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 4 August, 2017
The dollar is firmly in its bear market, but the media are calling for a rally as it is ‘oversold’. When it comes to a currency we do not see it moving like a share price. This applies to the dollar in particular. Hence we do not give too much weight to the Technical picture of the dollar, right now as we are seeing structural changes in the currency world. Full Story
– Gold consolidates on 2.5% gain in July as the dollar has fifth monthly decline – Trump administration and vicious “civil war” politics casting shadow over America and impacting dollar – All eyes on non farm payrolls today for further signs of weakness in U.S. economy – Gold recovers from 1.7% decline in June as dollar falls – Gold outperforms stocks and benchmark S&P 500 YTD Full Story
Gold and silver will zoom in August under (a) if market perceive that interest rate hike will move beyond the currently priced December month (b) Gold and silver are able to break and trade over $1310 and $17.10 respectively. Full Story
Spot gold finished July up more than 2 percent, its best month since February, when it returned 3.7 percent. The yellow metal responded to a struggling U.S. dollar, which has lost more than 10 percent so far this year relative to other currencies and is currently at a 15-month low. The dollar could very well continue to slide on additional political uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump and his administration. This would mean further upside for gold and gold stocks. Full Story
A lot of things are happening in the currency markets that have rarely happened before. Incredibly powerful trending moves are occurring with no corrections and minimal counter trend moves. While the dollar is collapsing, stocks, gold and oil are moving higher. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 3 August, 2017
New York closed at almost $14 higher than Shanghai’s yesterday’s close. In what we see as a striking testament to the power of Shanghai’s pricing dominance Shanghai moved slightly lower than its previous close with London following it at today’s open with $4.60 discount to Shanghai’s trading level today. With the gold world still looking at New York in the belief that the world will follow that market an understanding of the interrelationship of the three global gold markets is becoming paramount! Full Story
– Gold coins, bars see demand rise of 11% in H2, 2017 to 532 tonnes according to WGC Gold Demand Trends – Gold investment demand strong in China, India & Turkey – Demand in Turkey surges on double digit inflation – Total gold demand declines in Q2 on slower U.S. ETF inflows – Gold held in ETFs in Europe reached all time high of 978t – U.S. ETF inflows slowed from last year’s record – Central banks continue to buy – 94t of declared purchases – Turkey joined Kazakhstan & Russia in buying gold – Well balanced market: ETF inflows continue and jewellery, technology and bar & coin demand up Full Story
Gold and silver have a critical three day trading session till Monday. Boom or bust, there will be nothing in between. Short sellers will be there on every rise as long as gold does not break $1300-$1310 zone. Copper will be the key to silver prices. Silver price is partially supported by firmness in copper prices. A correction in copper can result in silver getting a technical breakdown. Full Story
For now, as long as the DXY continues to hold the 92.12 level on the larger degree time frame I still prefer to see this move higher at least for a corrective bounce. With that said and as noted last week until this can get over the short term resistance level of 96.06-97.92 the DXY still likely has more work to do to the downside prior to revisiting those January highs. Full Story
– Former Fed Chairman warns of bond bubble, stagflation – “Moving into a … stagflation not seen since the 1970s” – This will not be “good for asset prices” – 10 Yr Gov bond yields fell from 15.8% in 1981 to 2.3% – Interest rates will not stay low, will rise ‘reasonably fast’ – “Normal” interest rates in 4%-5% range – Inflation will not stay at historically low levels – Gold “protects savings” and is “store of value” – Gold is the “ultimate insurance policy” says Greenspan Full Story
The decline in the US$ index in 2017 has been relentless. From a high of nearly 104 at the end of 2016, the US$ index has steadily declined to as low as 93.00. While this has certainly fueled the strength in precious metals, it has not been able to lift the sector as much as typically expected. That is because Gold’s performance relative to other assets has been weak and much weaker than in 2016. Friday Gold broke above key resistance of $1260/oz but it remains below its 2017 highs as the US$ index tests support amid a very oversold condition and negative sentiment. Simply put, Gold will have to prove itself in real terms if it is going to hold its ground or breakout as the US$ begins a likely bounce. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 1 August, 2017
Precious metals investors may not be aware, but silver investment has seriously outperformed gold in this major market sector. Even though precious metals sentiment and sales are currently lower than they were over the past several years, this is only temporary pause before the market surges as the highly inflated stock market finally cracks and plunges lower. Full Story
Many analysts have been pointing to so many different reasons as to why they believe the market is “wrong.” And many more have pointed to reasons they expected the market to crash imminently, such as terrorist attacks, Brexit, Frexit, Trump election, cessation of QE, interest rate hikes, and many more that we all have read. Yes, most were quite certain that the market would never see its current heights and have fought this rally tooth and nail.
But, have any of them even considered why they missed this rally? Have you? Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 1 August, 2017
The gold price remained strong but has not yet broken higher, as it sits on support that was previously overhead resistance. We continue to expect more strength, shortly. The dollar price of gold does not reflect buying and selling of gold at the moment but the weakness of the dollar. The strength of the euro likewise does not reflect gold demand in Europe. Hence the fall in the euro gold price today seems to us out of line and likely to recover adding strength to the gold price’s rise. Full Story
– What investors can learn from the Japanese art of Kintsukuroi or Kintsugi – art of repairing broken pottery with gold – Investors and savers can protect their savings with gold – Savers and investors are being punished by negative to low interest rates – Global debt levels, stock bubbles and reduced liquidity will lead to crisis – Reinforce cracks with gold prior to money pot shatters Full Story
August is a month where traders will start taking positons for the year end and early next year. Long term technical breakouts will be the key to continuity of gold, silver, copper and crude oil. Incoming economic data releases from USA, UK and Eurozone will be relevant only if they confirm an earlier than expected interest rate hikes. Indian demand for gold and silver will start to rise from next week. Full Story
If the US$ Index is falling then gold (in US$) should be rising. Well, it is with another gain of 1.1% this past week. Still the rise in gold prices has been sticky even as it is up just over 10% on the year so far. Silver that had struggled of late as well is only up 4.4% so far in 2017 but it gained 1.4% this past week. Going forward silver should outperform gold and our expectation is that silver could have a big catch up. Our sense is that after rising from $1,124 in December 2016 to a peak of $1,265 in March 2017 gold went into an upward correction. That meant it hit somewhat higher prices at $1,298 but overall during the period it was just a period of sharp ups and downs going nowhere. There is still a lot of work to be done, but we are now through $1,260 and $1,270. That suggests to us that the previous $1,298 high should soon fall and that the market should then be on its way back to the $1,377 high of July 2016. Full Story
– Latest developments show risks in crypto currencies – Confusion as bitcoin may split tomorrow – SEC stepped into express concern over ICOs – ICOs have so far raised $1.2 billion in 2017 – ICOs preying on lack of understanding from investors – Physical gold not vulnerable to technological risk – Beauty and safety in simplicity of gold and silver Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 31 July, 2017
Toppy developed world financial markets
A lifetime of experience in global financial markets has taught us to recognize when a market is over extended either way. It has also taught us that it can stay over-extended for a long time The clear signs are when a market has discounted a very rosy future and expected returns are small relative to the price of assets. But in a climate where prices are very high, fund managers have to decide if the reasons are because they are over-bought, or if the money used to buy them is depreciating in value. Right now equity prices relative to fixed interest rate returns are not excessive. But the prospects of higher rates that will change this have been put off, allowing equities and other assets to remain too high for longer. Full Story
This could be a big week for the US dollar as well as metals and energies. Crude oil could zoom if it manages to trade over $50. Boom or bust scenario for the US dollar index. There is nothing positive from Trump and his team. Unending Trump controversies haunt investors. Degradation of US-Russia to before cold war years can have a long term affect for global markets. America is not the sole consumer of the world now. Full Story
The market has other plans and we are seeing mixed results and choppy stock action which tells me we may be ready for a couple or few months of consolidation starting pretty much now.
Time will tell, but the action has moved to sloppy so I’m toning down my complacency! Full Story
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