By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 10 January, 2020
At the risk of beating a well-worn drum, gold is the ultimate safe haven in times of political or economic crisis. This investing truth has been proven, yet again, during recent events in Iran, when gold shot to a six-year high north of $1,600/oz.
In our post-9/11 age, where the options of colossal damage to human life are limited only by the imaginations of the misguided, anything now seems possible. As investors, the best way to protect ourselves against a global (or regional, depending on where you live) calamity that even a large cache of US dollars could fail to provide, is to own gold.
And remember the out-of-whack gold-silver ratio, that is bound to compress. Before it does, you want to own silver. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA, Zeal Research - 10 January, 2020
At the same time gold-futures speculators can’t buy materially more, gold investors aren’t interested in buying. GLD’s holdings, the leading daily proxy of gold investment demand, have barely budged even as gold blasted higher in recent weeks. Record-high euphoric stock markets leave gold out of favor for diversifying portfolios. Without material capital inflows from speculators or investors, gold can’t keep climbing. Full Story
This is just one of several charts, graphs and indicators we use each week in NFTRH to gauge the sentiment situation (and folks, this is a sentiment event). NAAIM had pulled back their enthusiasm into year end and using this and other sentiment indicators that had twitched a bit bearish, we had a short-term bullish signal for the Santa seasonal, which we’ve allowed to extend into Q1 2020 (aided most recently by the US-Iran war drums).
And now? It’s as expected. Manic upside with investment managers all aboard, newsletters all aboard, CNBC anchors all aboard and all those discount brokerages that opened during the real sentiment blow off in January 2018… all aboard. All aboard the Crazy Train… Full Story
In conclusion, it looks like we are approaching our next local topping point throughout the complex. Therefore, I think it to be prudent to de-risk a bit on the next move higher, at least until the market is able to provide us with a corrective pullback over the coming weeks, followed by a break out over the high we will likely soon strike. Should we see that type of structure play out in the coming months, then I will likely turn VERY aggressive in the metals complex. Until that happens, I intend to become a bit more cautious and look to protect my portfolio for the pullback I expect to see soon. Full Story
US December nonfarm payrolls are there today. Numbers have to be over 200,000 to cause a selloff in gold. I repeat trading just on the basis of headline number can be misleading. Focus will shift to US-China trade talks from next week. Details will be the key and not the actual signing. Full Story
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth straight month in December, with the monthly reading from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) hitting its weakest point in more than 10 years. The purchasing manager’s index (PMI) fell to 47.2, a level we haven’t seen since June 2009, as global trade tensions continued to take a toll on the country’s manufacturers. Full Story
Algos do not always win - important to know this. Gold price gap in the chart is now filled, fails after failed Iran/Iraq/US fears subsides -- China, Brexit, Impeachment and much more coming up:
Gold and silver may have formed a short term top yesterday. If tomorrow’s US December nonfarm payrolls matches ADP jobs, then gold and silver can see further sell off. Signing of the US-China trade deal and the details released thereof will be closely watched next week. Full Story
The year 2019 unfolded just about as we predicted in our annual look-ahead post entitled "2010+9". And that's nice. But it's all for naught if we fail to correctly forecast where we go from here. With that in mind, here's a first look at what to expect in 2020.
These annual forecasts are risky business. Get it wrong and you create a paper trail for trolls to poach for years to come. Get it right and you get a few backslaps while being told that anyone could have foreseen the predicted events so get over yourself. Which leads me to wonder why I started making these forecasts in the first place...but here we go again. Full Story
In Terms of Bullishness, 18 day moving average crosses over 100 day moving average, gold entering 4th day of over Bollinger bands, another bullish sign of gold market..
Comex February futures rose to $1613.30 as I prepare this report. Big jump of over $30 (from yesterday’s close) on Iran’s retaliation. American and European reaction will be closely watched. Whether the reaction by Iran will turn into a full fledged war or it is just a one off move remains to be seen. Traders and all alike will prefer to be long in gold than short. Yesterday USA session price moves (in gold and silver) suggested a buildup in long position. Sellers were very less in USA session. A break of $1600 is very significant for gold. If gold prices manage to trade over $1600 then $1708 will be achieved by Friday. (I am serious). Full Story
Use sharp dips to invest for Easter in both gold and silver. Trade pact with China and Brexit has already been factored by the markets. Trump has started 2020 with a fragile Middle east and North Africa region. Turkey is sending troops to Libya. Sharp short term corrections should be used to invest. Only some positive economic news globally can put gold in a short term bear market. Towards the end of the month, if Chinese New Year gold demand comes in below expectation then gold prices can also sell off. Gold price will end 2020 in the same way it has started the year. Full Story
Gold had a strong finish to the year, recording its biggest annual advance since 2010 as the dollar weakened, reports Bloomberg, even amid optimism on the trade front along with signs of stabilization in China’s economy. In a statement from the London Bullion Market Association, the amount of gold held in London vaults rose 2.5 percent from a month earlier to 8,228 tons in September. That’s the highest in data going back to July 2016. In related news, Hong Kong’s purchases of gold coins from China surged last month as demand for haven assets soared amid the ongoing social unrest. Full Story
In this update I am not going to repeat the points made in the last fairly comprehensive update, instead we are going to focus on the importance of the resistance level just above where the price is now, and impact of the killing of the Iranian General and its potential implications for the gold price.
On the latest 10-year chart we can see that gold is making a 2nd attack on the key major resistance level in the $1530 - $1560 zone, which is hardly surprising considering what happened last week. Full Story
Gold was a significant beneficiary of the “hit” on January 3, 2020 soaring $24 on the day for the near futures contract. Gold was a beneficiary of a rush to safe havens that also included bonds. In closing over $1,550 we have taken out the next resistance line. Follow through this coming week will be key as we need to see it gold continue to hold $1,550 with key support now at $1,520/$1,525. The next move needs to take out the September high of $1,566. A move and confirmed closes above that level could target us eventually to new all-time highs above $1,920 the September 2011 high. Our initial target is $1,605 and beyond that $1,725.
Short-term there are a few negative signs. Silver did not perform as well as gold this past week. Silver hit a high of $18.33 on Friday before settling back closing at $18.15 up a rather muted 10 cents on the day... Full Story
Gold weekly swingline in bullish posture. Upside bias. $1491 area 18-week moving average at end of last week, support. Weekly gold chart over Bollinger band:
Sharp fall in India’s official gold imports in 2019: India imported 831 tonnes of gold in 2019 as compared to 944 tonnes in 2018. Our view in Indian gold imports: I do not believe these numbers. Just ignore it or throw them in the dustbin. The scale of gold smuggling in India cannot be envisaged. Every day in every custom border (whether it is land, air or sea), smuggled gold in some way or some form is caught. It is very difficult to quantify the smuggled gold in India. Full Story
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