Gold remained near unchanged in Asia before it rose slightly in early London trade, but it then steadily fell off throughout most of the rest of trade in London and New York before it rebounded slightly in the last minutes of trade and closed with a loss of 0.98%. Silver followed a similar pattern, but it was able to rebound a bit stronger at the end of trade and it closed with a gain of 0.39%. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 10 November, 2006
Gold has been incredibly volatile since it began rocketing higher in March. Starting near $540, the Ancient Metal of Kings soared to $720 in a magnificent climax for the biggest upleg yet in its young bull market. Then after initially plunging back down near $560 in June, the metal has largely drifted sideways ever since. Full Story
In the meantime the gold price has rocketed through the $628 resistance on the back of the landslide swing to the Democrats in the US mid term elections. This effectively puts US government into limbo for the next two years. The general opinion is that the Democrats are not as business friendly as the Republicans and this could well affect the steamroller ride of the Dow. It is interesting to note in this respect that there is a classic sell signal on Dow Theory as the DJIA has moved to new highs that have not been confirmed by the DJ Transport index. Full Story
And as for precious metals, who needs them right? At least that’s the attitude kids in charge of all that money over at the brokerages have right now. Junk paper of all varieties sure is in demand though. That being said, not everyone is foolish with their money, whatever that means today, where it appears precious metals, and their related equities, are attempting to bottom here. Just take a gander at this chart of Newmont (NEM: NYSE). It appears poised to reverse some important diamond breakdowns that could give it life. Could this be the defining moment in the Primary Degree B correction? (See Figure 2) Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 10 November, 2006
Regardless, we’ll evidently have Gold to keep us happily engaged, since yesterday’s surge pushed the December contract well above the 630.60 Hidden Pivot threshold we were using as a bullish trigger. Some Rick’s Picks subscribers appear to have gotten aboard near the lows, based on the following advice, which went out Wednesday evening: Full Story
A bullish signal was given with an upside crossover of the daily stochastics. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. There could be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 647.4. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 643.8 and 647.4, while 1st support hits today at 629.8 and below there at 619.4. Full Story
Finally the US dollar has started to fall, crude oil prices have started to rise. Markets were filled with reports that China will diversify its foreign exchange reserve away from the US dollar. China has nearly $1 trillion foreign exchange reserves, seventy percent of which are in US dollars. If China diversifies gold and silver will zoom. Full Story
Gold fell a few dollars in access trade late yesterday before it rebounded to near unchanged in Asia and traded mostly slightly higher in London. It then started to move higher in mid-London trade and continued to gain in New York ahead of China’s announcement that they are considering diversifying out of their foreign exchange reserves. That statement sent gold even higher in late morning trade and helped it to close near its highs with a gain of 2.84%. Silver followed a very similar pattern and outpaced gold with a gain of 3.85%. Full Story
Two days after the election and the gold market has moved on. After a bout of profit taking in the hours after the election and the uncertainty that followed, solid support was found under the market waiting to buy weakness. Support at $619, the 200 day moving average, provided enough technical support as well. However, a flurry of stories dominated the press today. Full Story
Many traders have written me lately, a little worried that perhaps the sentiment among gold traders have reached a frantic level, according to some sources. And that, does not bode well for gold from a contrarian point of view. Full Story
Both of these mergers were stock for stock and on the news of the mergers the acquiring companies, Iamgold and Kinross dropped substantially and thus eliminated the announced ‘premium’ being paid or at least a substantial portion thereof. Shareholders of the takeover companies are left wondering what to do. Seems we remember when a merger or buyout was actually a good deal for the current shareholders, so what are we missing? We understand that on a long-term basis these mergers may reflect a wise decision on the part of management, but now? Full Story
Gold has broken out of its large triangular consolidation to commence a new uptrend that should take it comfortably to new highs. The breakout is very obvious on weekly charts, which were included in the THIS IS IT article at the weekend. Full Story
Silver has broken out of its large triangular consolidation to commence a new uptrend that should take it comfortably to new highs. The breakout is very obvious on weekly charts, which were included in the THIS IS IT article at the weekend. Full Story
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Daily stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside break especially if near term support is penetrated. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The next downside objective is now at 611.6. The next area of resistance is around 622.7 and 629.1, while 1st support hits today at 613.9 and below there at 611.6. Full Story
Gold remained near unchanged in Asia, dropped over $5 in mid-London trade, rebounded to near unchanged in morning New York trade, fell off to new lows in afternoon trade, and closed with a loss of 1.41%. Silver fell in mid-London trade before it rallied in morning New York trade and found slight gains at one point, but it also fell off into the close and ended with a loss of 0.95%. Full Story
Gold is likely to continue its path higher, it’s just a matter of it correcting first or breaking solidly above $630. The correction came first. Weakness should be bought at this time. Support at $620 proved too shallow, leaving $612 and $610 as support. $600 could be the bottom of this range, giving the latest run up a 50% pullback. Resistance is seen at $620, $627, and $630. Full Story
The molybdenum industry does have the ability to produce more moly, but we can’t roast much more moly right now. No one is actively permitting for more roasting capacity in North America. Full Story
Gold was up a significant $28.20 to close the week out at $629.20 (continuous contract) for a gain of +4.69%. Not only was this the high for the week, but it was also the highest weekly close going back to August 11, 2006. A solid performance by the sovereign of sovereigns for the week. Full Story
With all the difference of opinions from so called “experts” on how to invest your capital, how does an investor cut through the “noise” to get a reasonable return on their investment? Is investing really that complicated? Can the average person make money in the markets? In our opinion it can be much easier than most people think. Full Story
Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The near-term upside objective is at 633.2. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 630.2 and 633.2, while 1st support hits today at 625.2 and below there at 623.2. Full Story
If there is no Osama bin laden, no Saddam Hussein, no Iranian nuclear issue or the middle east issue, what would the republicans do to win an election in US. Full Story
Gold traded over $3 lower in early Asian trade before it rebounded and traded on either side of unchanged in a tight range in London. It then climbed a few dollars in early New York trade, fell back off near unchanged, again rose a few dollars in late morning trade, and then fell back off into the close and ended just slightly higher on the day. Silver fell roughly 20 cents to about $12.50 in early Asian trade before it moved steadily higher in London and New York and got back up near unchanged on the day, but it then fell back off at the close and ended with a loss of 0.71%. Full Story
Again, another tight trading range left gold futures prices relatively unchanged for the fourth session in a row. No momentum in either direction was supported as election results won’t trickle in until after hours trading. Prices are likely to stay mixed to weak until results are better known or another story develops in the interim. A price correction is not out of the question at this time and unfavorable election results could provide an impetus to take profits. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 7 November, 2006
According to the Dept of Energy they project that the demand for natural gas could reach up to 30Tcf per year between 2015to 2020; this represents an increase of 41% from the current 23Tcf consumed each year. The Energy information administration (EIA) estimates there are roughly 1,729 Trillion cubic of natural gas reserves in the United States. The national petroleum council estimates that only 1,451 trillion cubic feet are recoverable. At the current rate of consumption and assuming we are able to tap all the available reserves of natural gas, we have roughly a 75 year supply of this precious commodity. Full Story
The USDollar has been a certain beneficiary of the engineered energy decline, whereby crude oil has declined over 20%, unleaded gasoline has been pushed down by 80 cents, and natural gas was hammered but bounced strongly. That enormous lift at the hands of Jason of the ArGo(ldma)n-auts might be coming to an end. The inverse relationship between crude oil and the United States currency is well known. As energy costs subside, prospects for sustainable growth improve within the USEconomy. Well, until you factor in housing and its momentous multi-tiered crash. Let’s call a spade a spade. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 7 November, 2006
We often read about the inflation threat posed by stronger economic growth, with the word inflation here referring to a rise in the general price level. Inflation is, of course, a rise in the total supply of money, but for the purposes of this discussion there's no need to dwell on the importance of getting this particular definition right. What we'll dwell on today is the absurdity of the notion that growth causes prices to rise. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 7 November, 2006
Is the stock market likely to go crazy after the election? A betting man might be tempted to take the odds on that one, since so many observers evidently expect angry voters to deliver a jolt of electricity to Wall Street’s vitals today. The rough consensus among forecasters I respect calls for a short, nasty correction beginning as soon as tomorrow, followed by the resumption of a bull market that would enter its fifth year if it makes it till March. Full Story
Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The near-term upside objective is at 632.9. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 630.6 and 632.9, while 1st support hits today at 625.2 and below there at 622.2. Full Story
Traders are on the edge of their seats till the results of the elections are known. There was mild profit taking which result in December gold future falling to a low of $623.70 while silver continued to range trade. Full Story
Gold fell a few dollars in Asia and London before it rebounded in New York and traded briefly higher in late morning and early afternoon trade, but it then fell back off a bit into the close and ended with a loss of 0.30%. Silver fell about 10 cents in Asia and London before it rebounded throughout trade in New York and ended near its highs with a gain of 1.12%. Full Story
Gold futures traded a relatively quiet day preceding US elections on Tuesday. December prices failed to break $630 and saw two sided trading throughout the session. Prices are likely to stay mixed to weak until results are better known or another story develops in the interim. A price correction is not out of the question at this time and unfavorable election results could provide an impetus to take profits. Full Story
TradeTech reported its uranium price indicator at US$60.25/pound on Friday, November 3rd. “One off-market transaction involving delivery before year-end was concluded this week at, or very near to, TradeTech’s Spot Price Indicator of $60.25 per pound U3O8,” Gene Clark, Chief Executive of TradeTech wrote to us in an email. “These offers are for small quantities involving almost immediate delivery and payment.” We interviewed Gene Clark about this development and what it means for spot uranium price climb heading into year end and what to expect for early 2007. Full Story
On Halloween, from out of the blue and with no warning, Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty blind-sided income trust investors with one big sucker punch of a new tax scheme. He abruptly announced a brand new plan to impose large new taxes on Canadian income and royalty trusts – despite his campaign promise not to, and despite the fact many folks relied on that promise when they decided to buy these trusts. Full Story
By: Axel Merk, Merk Hard Currency Fund - 6 November, 2006
Making short-term predictions about the dollar is notoriously difficult. So why do we say the dollar may fall after the election? Once we know what the future composition of Congress will be, the markets can shift focus from the excitement of the moment to what may lie ahead. Full Story
There will be enough pundits commenting on what the U.S. election results mean, but IMHO, voting this year is really in the end picking your own poison. The results can only lead to more division at a time when the world no longer wishes it had an Uncle Sam. Rest assured the “talking heads” on Tout-TV (CNBC-TV) will spin the elections to satisfy the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street. But, like the Roman Empire, the beginning of the end of the United States’ reign as the #1 world power is well under way. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster Global Watch - 6 November, 2006
The main reason is that it is a huge global currency subject to so many influences, whether it be in demand by all nations across the globe to pay for oil, or in demand by say Argentina to sell to meat to China. As the currency in which 86% of the globes transactions were denominated the actual intrinsic value of the $ was not that pertinent. This value, so it is taught, should reflect the entire Balance of Payments of the nation. And it usually does. Full Story
Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside target is at 639.1. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 635.1 and 639.1, while 1st support hits today at 623.3 and below there at 615.5. Full Story
One of the dangers of continually being close to the market, is that you can get lost in day to day detail, or even hour to hour detail, and end up not being able to “see the wood for the trees”. A way to counter this tendency is to use weekly or monthly charts, which filter out daily “noise”, and thus highlight changes to the big picture. As we will shortly see, weekly charts reveal that last week was a big one for gold and silver. Full Story
Most of the concern on Wall Street has been focused on the latest GDP statistics released by the Commerce Department which showed U.S. economic growth slowed in the third quarter to its lowest level in more than three years. The weaker housing market was one reason for the third quarter downturn in the economy – investment in homebuilding was cut by 17.4% – its biggest amount since early 1991 according to reports – and another area of blame was the higher energy prices and interest rates that were common heading into September. Full Story
I am not of the opinion that the short side should been taken at any time. I would only recommend a partial liquidation of previous long positions, until the Gold Market exceeds $1,500.00 and Silver exceeds $50.00. However, these upside objectives may be too low. I would only recommend taking a position that you can hold without emotional strain which will vary from person to person. As a general rule, most investors have a very difficult time holding an investment position. This is because the ups and downs of the market usually emotionally exhaust an investor’s resolve: never meet a margin call. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 5 November, 2006
December Gold hit our bullish target yesterday but couldn’t get past it, suggesting that some further consolidation may be needed to set up for the next big push. We’d projected a rally to at least 630.60 a few days back, and that’s almost exactly where the futures stalled yesterday, at 631.40. However, if they can close above the target for two straight days, or trade more than 1.80 above it intraday, I’d rate the December contract an odds-on shot to achieve the considerably higher target flagged in the Touts section of Rick’s Picks. Full Story
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