By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 10 March, 2006
Back in 1999 whenever tech stocks had a pullback or retreated briefly, the chorus of popular consensus was deafening in declaring that any weakness was a wonderful “buying opportunity”. This typical mania behavior didn’t start to abate until the NASDAQ was down 50% or so in late 2000 less than a year after its crash. Full Story
The gold bulls out there must be having a fit. Look, I’m just telling you what I see. If the two down gaps occurred in low volume and left unfilled, that would be very bullish. But because they were filled and now have become resistance, there is no need to revisit them any time soon, especially with so many gaps below current price levels. For the long term well being of the gold bull, it is in our best interests that these lower gaps get taken care of sooner the better. Full Story
While sentiment was certainly improved by the coordinated rise in prices yesterday, we still get the sense that the bear camp is lurking. In fact, with some Wall Street firms downgrading key gold shares as overvalued and other Press outlets trumpeting a possible end to the commodities boom, it is clear that the vulnerable environment remains in place. While US gold imports in January jumped by 61% over the prior month and were also up 103% versus year ago levels, we still think that the gold market needs a favorable US payroll reading this morning, just to foster the hopes for strong ongoing physical gold demand and to a degree just to keep the inflationary expectation alive. Full Story
Gold started off lower in Asia but found decent gains in London and added to its gains in New York to above $550 at one point, but it then sold off a bit into the close and ended near its lows of the New York session with only about half of its gains from the day’s high. Silver followed a similar pattern and traded over $10 at one point before selling off a bit into the close, but it still ended with an over 1% gain. Full Story
It's all nonsense. That higher interest rates means lower commodity prices, that is. All the chatter is just that - diversionary clap-trap. If the personal savings rate were to be viewed back to 1960, you'd see that only intermittently did Americans save less than 9%. Today we're setting aside a negative 2.75%! And that's the personal rate. The government's rate of "saving" (surplus) has long since gone down the slop shoe. Full Story
A pen-pal of mine has seized on a source of frustration that continues to vex many of us. To wit, gold and bullion shares sell off savagely in a bull market while the broad stock market rarely fall for more than an hour or two in the midst of a secular bear. “I don’t think there’s any doubt that the market is ready to [collapse],” he writes. “The violence of the sell-off in gold shares indicates that the landscape has changed. Full Story
In retrospect, the slide in gold isn't surprising when one considers the recent rate hike mania, periodic strength in the Dollar, slack US economic numbers, significant weakness in oil prices and the moderately overbought status of the gold market around the February highs. In looking forward, it is possible that a final wave of selling is possible into and through the Friday morning US payroll reading as the Dollar might rise on a strong report. However, a strong payroll report is probably necessary just to begin rebuilding the bull case. Full Story
Gold and silver traded just slightly lower in Asia before dropping a bit further in early London trade, but the big drops in the metals came in late London and early New York trade. Both metals initially rebounded from their large losses, but both found their way to new session lows by afternoon trade which then saw a slight rebound into the close. Full Story
By: Dudley Baker and Lorimer Wilson - 8 March, 2006
“How should we position our assets given the dire predictions of these imminent economists and analysts who are all much of the same mind as to what may well be in store for the U.S and, indeed, the global economy very soon?” Again, we have compiled a detailed and comprehensive summary of what many of these very same individuals, and others, have to say. Full Story
We billboarded a 49.08 target in Newmont yesterday because a fall to that number, precisely, looked like a lead-pipe cinch. Our strategy was therefore simple: Put up a 49.08 bid on the opening, then simply wait for NEM to come to Papa. And so it did, sort of. After a curmudgeonly feint higher in the early going, the stock reversed course and plummeted four percent to 49.20. Those of you with bids in at 49.08 will be the first to attest that 49.20 is not quite 49.08. Ditto for subscribers who, instead of bidding for stock, substituted a 2.00 bid for some April 50 calls. Full Story
After reports of fund selling in Japan and talk of Bank selling in China, it would certainly seem like the US Gold market will be under moderately significant pressure into the opening this morning. With the Dollar rising to the highest level since February 17th in the action yesterday and oil prices periodically weak, the bull camp is under attack from a number of fronts. In fact, with the April gold failing to hold the $550 level in the overnight action, the market might be without close-in support until the $545.2 level. Full Story
Gold traded mostly slightly higher in Asia before it turned mostly slightly lower in London and then dropped to under $550 briefly in New York, but it did rebound into the close to end well off its lows. Silver remained mixed and near unchanged in Asia and London before traded mostly slightly higher in New York and ended near its highs of the session in continued choppy trade. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold-Authentic Money - 7 March, 2006
Recently we made a comment that China’s liberalising of the gold market there was not nearly what it seemed. We highlighted this by saying that when regional prices for gold had dropped in line with Shanghai prices of gold the liberalisation of the Chinese market would be complete. We hold to this view. However, China has started down that road. This is not their objective though! Full Story
By: Peter George, Investment Indicators - 7 March, 2006
We return to our last report, published at the end of last year. Is it not remarkable how the topics of IRAN and RADICAL ISLAM have dominated the headlines since the New Year? If international politicians were not attempting to deflect Iranian plans to develop nuclear weapons, they have been busy fending off angry Moslem demonstrators. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 7 March, 2006
Iran has been on the minds of many investors over the past few months, for two main reasons. First, there's the Iranian Government's clearly-stated intention to push ahead with its nuclear ambitions... Second, there's Iran's decision to establish an oil bourse on which the world's most important commodity will trade in euros rather than US dollars. Full Story
So what it boils down to is the gold mountain range area which is the HUI. The dark blue line traveling just below the HUI's mountain ridges is an 18-week Mov. Avg. The dashed red line is the Canadian Stock Venture Index (CDNX) which is the repository index for most of the Canadian juniors, and a lot of other Canadian stocks as well, so it's not a pure mining index. It follows right along the HUI ridge line pretty nicely and has kept its "second wind" after the Jan/Feb pullback. Full Story
From my observation, we are now in the time frame of an intermediate top, prices could edge higher still, and if they do, watch the volume. Higher prices not confirmed by higher volume is a bull trap, a big one this time of the year. Investors and traders are better off to be patient and wait for the next major buying opportunity in all sectors. Full Story
By: John Rubino, DollarCollapse.com - 7 March, 2006
One way to gauge investor sentiment is to look at the price of options and derive an implied volatility, or “vol”. The CBOE does this for S&P 500 options and arrives at a measure, known as the VIX, of how much options players expect stocks to fluctuate in the coming 30 days. Lately, vol has dwindled to a near-record low, implying that options players are extrapolating today’s range-bound market into the future. Full Story
Newmont has been good to us in the past, so we’ve been on the lookout recently for a good spot to re-enter the stock. You may recall that we exited a small position in January near $60, reaping a theoretical trading gain of $3,620. Alas, with the stock down by nearly $10 a share since, it is perhaps still not a buy, not quite. A much was evident yesterday when we tried to catch the falling piano at 50.37, an enticing hidden pivot support. Full Story
In addition to a rising Dollar and falling oil prices, gold bulls were confronted with some really disappointing US economic readings. As if the fundamental track weren't negative enough, the market also seems to be confronted with the idea that the US Fed is poised to hike interest rates three times in 2006! In other words, the gold bulls seemed to get the worst of two worlds Monday, by seeing the prospect of rising interest rates and a slight dampening of the inflation look, off the sharp slide in energy prices. Full Story
Gold traded slightly higher in Asia and rose to about $568 in London before it fell to near unchanged at the New York open. Gold then traded near unchanged to slightly lower in morning New York trade before it fell off markedly in afternoon trade and ended near its lows with a near 2% loss. Silver jumped around in very choppy action and traded mostly slightly lower in Asia, near unchanged in London, and mostly slightly higher in morning New York trade, but it also sold off in afternoon New York trade and ended almost 2% lower to fall from 22 year highs. Full Story
Since the current gold bull began in 2002 – or when the price of gold finally held above $300 an ounce - the Commitments of Traders report (COT) has been a crystal ball. To be sure, from 2002 until August 2005 the knowledge gleaned from weekly COT led to timely buy and sell recommendations, many which were publicized in this space.* Full Story
On the fundamental side, we observe increasing demand for both silver and gold, and a growing reluctance on the part of central banks to sell or lease gold. There are two aspects to a successful trading strategy, and while this article highlights the technical side, it requires solid fundaments for balance. I find the articles featured at the Silverseek.com website to be of invaluable assistance. These are written by people who have done their homework. I then apply Technical Analysis (TA), to determine when to buy or when to sell, and this makes for a complete strategy. Full Story
This question is being asked with greater frequency by serious investors after recent reports of domestic animals in Europe and other countries being infected by the infamous avian flu. In this article we’ll try to answer some of these concerns as to how a widespread outbreak would likely affect investment market, particularly the gold price. Full Story
By: Joe Ferrazzano, Trade The Cycles - 6 March, 2006
Reliable lead indicator NEM's 2 month chart dated 3-3-06 (third chart) reveals that it's cycle low two weeks ago was in fact a Wave A short term cycle low not the start of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5. The major upcycle Wave 4's Wave C short term downcycle began on 3-2 for HUI (see latest 1 year chart), on 2-24 for NEM (see 2 month chart dated 3-3-06, third chart), and on 2-22 for XAU (see latest 1 year chart), so severe weakness is likely this week, and, a great buying opportunity in anticipation of the major upcycle's Wave 5 is rapidly approaching. Full Story
While the gold market remains positively poised on the charts, we still get the feeling that the market is lacking the type of concentrated buying interest that propelled the market sharply higher in the November and January rallies. With the February 28th Commitment of Traders with Options report showing the Gold Non-Commercial position to be net long 126,512 contracts and the Non-reportable position also net long 34,072 contracts, the gold market is holding a moderately long positioning but so far the market hasn't seen a rapid expansion of the net spec long. Full Story
Gold found slight gains in Asia and traded near unchanged in London before it fell slightly in New York, but it still ended just $6.40 from its recent 25 year closing high of $572.20 made about a month ago. Silver traded near unchanged in Asia and rose near $10.30 in London before it fell off a bit in New York, but it still ended slightly higher to make a new 22 year high. Full Story
There seems to be a lot of nervousness in the gold market these days when it comes to the nearby future of the HUI. Will it crash? Or will it appreciate further from here on? Sure enough nobody can predict the future so neither can I but nevertheless I wanted to share a few thoughts on this matter since the HUI seems to be on a critical juncture here. In my piece ‘HUI – Too Young to Die’ I pointed out several similarities between the HUI move of 2003 and 2006 and concluded that there was still some upside potential left in the current HUI run. Full Story
Despite a number of adverse technical indications, gold looks set to break strongly higher next week. While silver broke spectacularly higher last week, partly in response to marked weakness in the dollar, gold did not, and was kept in check by resistance approaching its early February highs. Other factors that contributed to restraining gold were the current very large gap between its 50 and 200-day moving averages, and the fact that it is still near the return line of its long-term uptrend channel, shown on the 5-year chart below. Full Story
What a superb performance by silver last week - silver investors really can’t ask for better technical action than this, for while it rose a lot on Thursday, the move was not of the silly proportions that would be expected to provoke a significant reaction. In the last update we looked for silver to outperform gold - and it has. Full Story
By: David Chapman, Union Securities - 5 March, 2006
Could rising global interest rates and rising geopolitical concerns that could translate into an escalation in the so called War on Terror be the double jeopardy that will take down the markets in 2006-2007? While these two issues are totally separate and many might take issue as to global geopolitical concerns both have potential negative impact on the markets. we currently view these two items as the ones that could be the trigger a recession and a serious stock market collapse going forward. Full Story
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