By: Adam Hamilton, CPA, Zeal Research - 10 May, 2019
Trump had twice delayed hiking US tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 25%, a good-faith sign giving time for real trade-deal negotiations. But his patience ran out this past Sunday after China backtracked on key previous commitments. So Trump tweeted the current 10% US tariffs on $200b of annual Chinese imports would surge to 25% today, and warned that 25% tariffs were coming “shortly” on another $325b!
China will retaliate as long as high US tariffs remain in effect. That will really retard US sales from top-34 SPX companies in that country. Beloved market-darling Apple is a great example. This second-biggest stock in the S&P 500 did $10.2b or 17.6% of its Q1’19 sales in China! The US-China trade war heating up in a serious way portends even-weaker revenues going forward for the big US stocks dominating the SPX. Full Story
As we came into 2019, Ryan Wilday and I have been publishing articles about Bitcoin, with our ideal targets for the initial rally off its December 2018 lows pointing to the $6000-7000 region before a top forms. And, as we now find ourselves in our target region, we now can count the minimum number of waves in Bitcoin to mark a near term top. Therefore, as I write this article while Bitcoin is hovering around $6,050, we are still looking a bit higher in the near term, but with more caution than prior articles. Full Story
Uber is unlikely to fall as much percentage-wise after it begins trading on Friday simply because Lyft’s experience is certain to discourage the repetition of the wild excesses that greeted Lyft's first day of trading on March 29. Uber shares are expected to open in the range $44-$50, representing a valuation of $80 billion to $90 billion. If it opens in the middle of that range, near $47, a 21.5% drop from there over the next couple of months would bring it down to 37.13. These targets are just guesstimates, but you should jot them down anyway, since my strong hunch is that they will both be achieved. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 9 May, 2019
Short term hot money is not flowing into gold and silver. Crude oil gets the maximum short term hot money. Trump tweets on crude oil has impacted crude oil prices the maximum. Republican party’s big donor’s are the big American energy industry. Trump policies on Iran and Libya are aimed to blocking their crude oil supplies and ensuring that more and more nations increase American crude oil purchases. Full Story
The bull’s vital signs are failing, and for a score of reasons that I’ve written about here, it seems an unlikely time for stocks to get second wind. Even so, I will continue to stick closely to big-picture technicals that. at least theoretically, still give the bull still plenty of room to run. The picture would change dramatically for the worse, however, if the Indoos were to fall a further 757 points, or 2.91%, exceeding 25,208 to the downside. A corresponding drop for the S&P 500 Index would be 163 points, or 5.65%. As for the Nasdaq (QQQ), still trading near last autumn’s record highs, a 17-point drop to 169, or 9.1%, would likely be the death knell for the aging bull. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 8 May, 2019
Stock bump should be very bullish for gold. I write once again that short covering and subsequent long position building will be there if gold manages to trade over $1292. If gold rises till Monday close, then I am very confident of a $1310 and $1330. Rise and fall both will be big. Silver will lag gold but will rise if supported by gold. Full Story
Shades of Smoot-Hawley!? Stocks plummeted for the second time in less than 24 hours Monday when Trump signaled to China’s trade negotiators that he means business. A long-delayed, $200 billion hike in tariffs will take effect on Friday because the Chinese reneged on commitments they’d already made. I don’t say they allegedly reneged or that they reportedly reneged, since no one ever believed for a minute that the scumbags were interested in giving the U.S. an honest deal. Why should they want to play fair when their goal is to cultivate trade with Europe, Asia and the rest of the world at America’s expense? It will simply taking them longer now, since, besides raising levies, Trump will take strident measures to thwart China’s epic theft of intellectual property, and push back more aggressively against Beijing’s generous subsidies to key industries. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 7 May, 2019
Trump and his twitter trumpet of reigniting trade war failed to life gold price yesterday. Short covering will be there if gold breaks and trades over $1290-$1292 zone. Silver needs to trade over $1500 to rise further. Copper and crude oil may have formed a short term bottom yesterday. “Akshay Tritiya” demand if it comes in below expectations in India can result in small correction in gold prices. Wider trading for gold is at $1270-$1300. So right now in the short term gold is in a no man’s land. I prefer to use sharp dips to invest for month end with a stop loss below $1240. Full Story
- The current FFF at the CME which indicates the Fed could begin a new round of QE within a year. - There are strong probabilities of a rate cut by Dec. / Jan. - Investors are adjusting financial models in anticipation of the more dovish Fed, which bodes well for PMs. - The US dollar remains in a technically strong position due to relative economic strength of the US and trading partner China. - Goldman Sachs noted this week that CB demand for the yellow metal remains solid. Full Story
It is the market that refuses to die. All signs, ok most of them anyway, continue to point to a stock market that is going to continue higher. This week we look at a few angles and the old “Sell in May, and go away” myth. There will be pullbacks but most signs continue to point up.
This week’s U.S. job numbers were another jolt that the economy appears to be buzzing. Or is it? Our “Chart of the Week” looks at the April employment numbers. It may not be as rosy as everyone thinks.
Recession what recession. Our recession watch spread has actually widened. All the U.S. seems to need is a healthy Wall Street and Silicon Valley.
Gold rebounded sharply on Friday following the U.S. job numbers but our ultimate targets have not yet been hit. So our expectation is that after another short term rebound we will continue on down. A strong U.S. dollar will probably assist gold to the downside. Full Story
Scanning the business pages, the overall impression is that the U.S. economy has never been stronger and that nothing could possibly go wrong. Bloomberg’s editors went all-in with headline hubris that just begged for trouble: If This Is a Tech Bubble in Stocks, It’s the Expansionary Phase. Mind you, the conspicuously unprofitable Uber is about to go public with a possible $100 billion (!) valuation, and Softbank is talking about spinning off an investment fund of similar size. If such overweeningly ambitious offerings are mere precursors to an actual bubble, just imagine what decadent prosperity must lie ahead for America. Will we all feast, as William F. Buckley once had it, on nightingale tongues? Such are investors’ dreams as their excesses expand heedlessly toward a millennial peak. Full Story
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