By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research - 11 October, 2019
The bottom line is recent months’ strong gold investment demand is fragile. Those inflows from American stock investors have been conditional, totally dependent on gold’s upside momentum. Their differential GLD-share buying has stopped whenever gold’s advance stalled or flagged. With the US stock markets way up near all-time-record highs, there’s little perceived need for portfolio diversification driving durable demand.
So as this latest strong gold upleg inevitably rolls over into a healthy bull-market correction, investment selling is going to exacerbate gold’s downside. When gold’s gains turn to losses, momentum-chasing investors won’t hesitate to flee. Their selling and speculators’ gold-futures selling will reinforce and amplify each other. A major gold correction will crush gold stocks, but create great buying opportunities in its wake. Full Story
Do not believe in Trump on the trade deal. Let there be a trade deal and the details made public. Then only gold will fall. Till there is a confirmation of a trade deal, I will prefer to use a buy on sharp dips strategy for gold and silver. Intraday volatility will rise in gold and silver. Full Story
Lack of alternate investment avenues and fear of more recession has resulted in investors flocking to gold and silver. Even bitcoin and other crypto currencies are selling off. Investors and traders have not choice but to invest in gold and silver. Currency markets are not very volatile. Traders invest in investment instruments which are highly volatile. Gold and silver are highly volatile apart from a safe haven. Gold and silver bulls have nothing to fear. Full Story
High chances that there will not be a trade deal between USA-China will result in gold and silver trading with a bullish bias. Trade war between USA-China and USA-Rest of the world, will only rise if there is no trade deal this week. Gold and silver will zoom to $1600 and $1900 as a result. Keep a close watch on Syria. Turkey is trying to take over the Kurdish region of Iraq and Syria. Russia is also involved. Any escalation in Syria will only add to gains for gold. Full Story
There is unwinding of open positions in currency markets as well as metals and energies. Short positions and long positions both are getting squared off. Traders will take a new position once there is clarity on the direction of US-China trade talks. Trump is trying to pressurize China by imposing sanctions on more Chinese tech companies. Whether that works in Trump’s favor or not remains to be seen. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was gold, up 0.51 percent. Gold traders and investors are positive on future gold prices in this weeks’ Bloomberg survey. For the first time in a month the gold bulls outnumbered the combined bearish and neutral responses. ETFs added 39,919 troy ounces of gold to their holdings on Thursday, marking the 14th straight day of inflows, according to Bloomberg data. This year’s net purchases now total 10.3 million ounces. As seen in the chart below, holdings in gold-backed ETFs are near 2012 records, while the price of gold is taking longer to catch up. The yellow metal rallied the most in a month on Wednesday after U.S. private companies’ payrolls rose less than forecast, reports Bloomberg. This builds the case for the Fed cutting rates again this year. Full Story
It was a 'nothing' sort of day in the precious metals on Friday -- and the sell-off that did come to pass on the jobs report more or less recovered by the end of the New York trading session. I was also happy to see the gold price close above $1,500 spot.
Considering the price action in gold and silver, I was even more delighted to see how well their underlying equities performed in light of that. They were under steady accumulation throughout the entire trading session...irrespective of what the precious metals themselves were doing.
But still at 'Ground Zero' as the near-term prices in silver and gold are concerned, is how the enormous short position in both is resolved...a fact that Ted reminded me of on the phone again yesterday. There was a decent improvement in gold, but still light years away from being anywhere near bullish. The situation for silver from a COT perspective is somewhat better, but still bearish as well. Full Story
By: Avi Gilburt, Elliott Wave Trader - 7 October, 2019
The narrative will certainly play out as follows: The market likes certainty and stability within our government. (Please ignore that this was the same reason many claimed that the market was going to crash if Trump was elected – yet we were pounding the table in expectations of a large rally). However, an impeachment proceeding places us into a very uncertain and unstable situation within our government. Therefore, the market will react negatively to that uncertainty.
It sounds reasonable, right? It makes sense, right? It sounds logical, right? Full Story
We had confidently expected the bounce to come from lower levels — specifically, from a 25,363 ‘Hidden Pivot’ target in the Dow that had looked certain to be achieved. Alas, the forecast seemed to miss by a not-so-trivial 380 points when the Indoos trampolined off 25,743. The jury is still out, however, since 25,363 will remain a valid price objective unless the rally exceeds 27,303. But it is usually a bullish sign when downtrending ABCD correction patterns fall short of their ‘D’ targets, as may have occurred here. Moreover, there is no reason to think that a deepening global downturn, impeachment mayhem and signs of a top in the U.S. economy will impair buyers’ bad judgment. For at the end of the day, the rally is not being driven by bullishness, but by urgent short-covering, a world awash in credit money, entrenched institutional mindset and a lack of high-beta alternatives. Full Story
Chinese officials are signaling they’re increasingly reluctant to agree to a broad trade deal pursued by President Donald Trump, ahead of negotiations this week. Gold and other safe havens will continue to rise. Gold has been delinked from the US dollar. It will continue to be delinked from the greenback. Full Story
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