Gold rose over $5 to above $640 in Asia and remained above $640 for most of trade in London before it dipped a bit at the New York open, but it then rose near $645 in midmorning New York trade until just before 11AM EST which saw the price plummet for the next hour all the way down to $625.40. Gold then rebounded a bit into the close to end back near unchanged on the day, but it still ended slightly lower. Silver gained over 15 cents in Asia and London and rose above $12.30 in midmorning New York trade before it also sold off dramatically in late morning trade, but it was not able to rebound as well as gold and ended 1.25% lower on the day. Full Story
Many readers have asked us to update our comments on base metals, which we last addressed in any substantive way just over a year ago, when we sold most of our base metal plays in the July 2005 issue of the International Speculator, on the basis of an expected correction in base metals prices. We are still expecting a greater correction in base metals than we’ve seen so far. We were out early, we admit—but we vastly prefer to be out early, rather than late, and can’t complain about having locked in the profits we did. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 11 August, 2006
Oil stocks played prominently in the news this past week. With the corrosion problem in BP’s transit pipelines at Prudhoe Bay necessitating a shutdown of this largest oilfield in North America, oil stocks received far more attention than usual. Full Story
Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend could be turning down. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The next upside target is 665.7. The next area of resistance is around 654.0 and 665.7, while 1st support hits today at 638.0 and below there at 633.8. Full Story
Thin market conditions have made trading extremely volatile in the metals market. Gold and silver fell after a technical break down and sellers on every rise. Full Story
Gold rose near $654 in Asia before it fell back near $650 in London and then dropped throughout trade in New York to close near its lows of the session with a loss of 2.38%. Silver rose above $12.60 in Asia before it dropped near unchanged in London and then fell throughout trade in New York to close near its lows of the session with a loss of 3.69%. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster – Global Watch - 10 August, 2006
As hopes for future gold supplies turn more and more to politically risky nations with a growing propensity to tax and control such resources, so the risks facing the well-known producers in the industry are growing. Full Story
Key fundamental changes in the USEconomy are underway. Some of these changes have motivated extreme reactions by the USGovt, regarding war to secure energy supply, strain on strategic alliances, encouragement of enemy alliances, and tight partnerships with large domestic corporations. They act much like Knights of the Round Table, privy to state secrets, cooperative to formulate strategic policy, agents to preserve the union. The geopolitical stage has morphed into a chess game, overloaded with strategic requirements, where brute force seems an unsuccessful alternative to cunning and compromise. Full Story
Metal markets have been in a strong bull market for four years. Currently a correction and sideways consolidation is in progress. Normally, pullbacks and consolidations are part of all long term up-trends in any market. Not withstanding all the bullish fundamentals in a world floating on printed money and debt there are always corrections and sharp pullbacks in the gold sector. This goes with the territory. Full Story
Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Market positioning is positive with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside target is 672.1. The next area of resistance is around 667.2 and 672.1, while 1st support hits today at 656.8 and below there at 651.2. Full Story
Gold dropped in after hours trade yesterday to find about $10 losses in early Asian trade before it rebounded in late Asian and London trade to come into New York near unchanged. It then continued to gain throughout morning trade in New York before it fell off slightly in afternoon trade, but it still ended with a gain of 0.73%. Silver fell under $12 in Asia before it rebounded in London and continued to gain in New York to close with a gain of 2.46%. Full Story
I have been reading many articles on the topics of gold and gold miners for a few years now. Here I would like to share my view on both gold and especially HUI, many of which are results of my own research and haven't been read from other publications. The main point of this article is if we view HUI as a derivative of gold, it will give a better understanding of HUI movement, resulting better indication and wave count than gold itself for the purpose of future projection. My forecast on gold is also discussed here. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends newsletter - 9 August, 2006
After the residual rounds of the central bank tightening are unveiled in the months ahead, the global markets would still be awash in a giant ocean of liquidity, with cheap financing available in financial centers such as Tokyo and Zurich for leveraged positions. Above average money supply growth in developed and emerging economies are designed to buffer the global stock markets from the impact of sharply higher oil prices. Slower US economic growth can also lead to a weaker US dollar and higher commodity prices, and “Stagflation”. Full Story
Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The near-term upside target is at 662.9. The next area of resistance is around 660.5 and 662.9, while 1st support hits today at 654.1 and below there at 650.0. Full Story
Everyday is not a Sunday. After the June FOMC gold and silver had rallied and retail investors had gone long in anticipation of the same. This time the opposite has happened and so the profit taking. Full Story
Gold remained near unchanged in Asia and fell in London to as low as $640.60 in early New York trade, but it then rallied back to close just slightly lower ahead of the fed’s decision. Silver rose in Asia before it dropped in London to as low as $12.05 in early New York trade, but it also rebounded back to near unchanged and closed just slightly lower on the day. Both metals jumped higher following the FOMC policy announcement, but both have since fallen to off to near unchanged or slightly lower at the time of writing in after hours trade. Full Story
The upside crossover (9 above 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term uptrend. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next upside target is 666.3. The next area of resistance is around 662.7 and 666.3, while 1st support hits today at 656.3 and below there at 653.4. Full Story
Higher crude oil should force the Fed to raise interest rates today. If there is another shock like a brewing Hurricane on top of this, crude oil prices could easily hit $84 a barrel. Full Story
Gold rose to over $650 in Asia, fell back near unchanged in London, rose back above $650 by late morning New York trade before it again fell off into the close, but it still ended slightly higher on the day. Silver traded in about a 10 cent range on either side of unchanged in Asia, London, and most of trade in New York, but it then fell off right at the close and ended 1.37% lower on the day. Full Story
Perhaps the most baffling behavior is that investors continue to allow their wealth to be plundered by the paper asset groupies. Billions of dollars have been allowed to wither under the mismanagement of paper asset firms. For the past five years, the return on U.S. equities has been less than 3%, compounded annually. Investment managers charged their customers a fee for that paltry return. For the same period the compound return on $Gold was just shy of 19%. Most investment management firms continue to avoid putting Gold in client portfolios. Why would anyone pay a fee for such miserable service? Full Story
But one of the interesting aspects of the current state of affairs is that the gold price is purportedly moving on the back of this crisis. However when one looks across the whole spectrum of the metal charts the pictures are virtually identical. The next major bull run in metals is very close at hand. It is not just gold but all the base and precious metals together that have outstanding pictures. There is far more to the fundamentals for such a broad based potential move than just a minor war zone. Full Story
In the June and July newsletters we examined whether the XAU index had reached a short-term bottom and reached a conclusion that, based on numerous technical/internal and cyclical studies, the gold/silver stocks were indeed "oversold" enough to begin an oversold rally off the June lows. The leading gold and silver stocks did just that, with many meeting resistance at the 60-day and 90-day benchmark moving averages as expected but with a few managing to overcome these moving averages on the upside. That showed greater than anticipated strength and suggested that higher highs were on the near horizon for many gold and silver stocks. Full Story
Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversal down. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The near-term upside objective is at 668.8. The next area of resistance is around 661.2 and 668.8, while 1st support hits today at 650.8 and below there at 647.9. Full Story
It’s once again the Fed week. Markets are divided over the interest rate decision. Gold and silver had risen sharply after the last Fed meeting of nearly a month ago. Full Story
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